A Single Stat Will Tell You Who to Draft

[jIM_Ohio]

JFK has been shot.

48 years ago

[rysoucie23]

If the Bills had a consistent offense that could sustain long drives, the defense wouldn't get so gassed at the end of the football game.

It would be interesting to see the 2nd half statistics on run defense. I cannot seem to find it anywhere. NFL statistical websites are a joke. But, I watched every single Bills game and the defense would break near the end of the football game. Teams ran all over them near the end.

The defense was on the field the 3rd most in the league.
The offense was on the field the 7th least in the league.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...qualified=true

It's not rocket science, but it's a little more complicated than total rushing defense.

Am I saying the defense doesn't play a large role in the late game woes? Absolutely not, the Bills need more depth, obviously. The Bills have 9 picks in the draft.

[Playoffs?Playoffs?]

This thread is spot on.


Stop all the QB talk!

[jIM_Ohio]

I guess 4-12 and 1-5 in division is not as big a concern to other people.

I saw Demetrius Bell Vs. Jared Allen last year. It made me think they still need a better LT.

Allen was the only DE which abused Bell (I agree Bell got abused). Is that a statement of how good Allen is or how bad Bell is?

Before you answer, consider who is better

Jared Allen or Julius Peppers? How did Bell do against Peppers?
Jared Allen or James Harrison? How did Bell do against Harrison?
Jared Allen or Dwight Freeney? Did Bell play Freeney in 2009?

Bell is good enough for the DEs in 10-14 of the 16 games. Even Cameron Wake did not abuse Bell. And Bell plays him 2X per year.

LT could be improved, but my take is 20-30 of the teams in the NFL would jump at chance to start Bell on their OL, and at least 50% of those teams would put him at LT.

[Thurman#1]

Does it suprise you that we won 4 out of the 5 games that we gave up the least amount of rushing yards for the season? GB is an anomoly because we turned the ball over 6 times. Does it suprise you that in the EIGHT games we gave up over 200 yards rushing we lost?!! This is the easiest draft the BILLS front office has ever had - we BETTER draft defense at LEAST 3 of the first 4 picks..

It doesn't surprise me at all that we won those games. They were the four worst teams we played. It doesn't surprise me that we gave up so few rushing yards in those games either. When you get ahead, you often force the other team to pass more and run less. If only our offense had scored more, especially early, other teams would have run on us much less than they did.

This doesn't tell you to draft defense. It tells you to draft whoever you need to to get ahead in more games. And you get ahead in games in TWO ways, improve your offense so you score more points, or improve your defense so they score less. Either one will work fine, and both will put opponents in a position where they will run less.

[jIM_Ohio]

I am figuring we go with a Punter in Round 1! We'll show them all.

I vote for field goal holder or the guy which plays in the back of the victory formation

[Thurman#1]

Allen was the only DE which abused Bell (I agree Bell got abused). Is that a statement of how good Allen is or how bad Bell is?

Before you answer, consider who is better

Jared Allen or Julius Peppers? How did Bell do against Peppers?
Jared Allen or James Harrison? How did Bell do against Harrison?
Jared Allen or Dwight Freeney? Did Bell play Freeney in 2009?

Bell is good enough for the DEs in 10-14 of the 16 games. Even Cameron Wake did not abuse Bell. And Bell plays him 2X per year.

LT could be improved, but my take is 20-30 of the teams in the NFL would jump at chance to start Bell on their OL, and at least 50% of those teams would put him at LT.

Bell had several bad games, not just one. Gailey himself said he was "okay," and he wasn't smiling when he said it. We absolutely need to improve at LT, absolutely. I'm hoping that Bell can be the one who improves, but if he doesn't get a great deal better, they'll be grabbing an LT in the top two rounds over the next couple of years.

[ClevelandBackersPrez]

Yes we all knew that. The point he is trying to make is that this is the biggest area of need, not QB as some suggest.

Exactly Gregg. I think we can all agree somewhat that Fitz is hot and cold. However, stopping the run gives him more chances on the field....

[Thurman#1]

Why are you over complicating this???

This isn't a new problem. The Bills have been 22nd or worse in rush defense the past 6 seasons. 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010.

Fix the problem directly. Draft bigger and stronger players that can stop the run. Our GM said the same thing.

Gotta agree. But it doesn't have to be in round one necessarily.

[Thurman#1]

maybe if the defense didn't allow so many yards/points in the beginning of the game our offense would have the ball more and could put up more points in the beginning of the game.

Actually, check the stats, our offense was horrible early in games and our defense was not all that bad. Not good, but nowhere near as bad as the offense. Our offense started slow. Our defense would tire out and be bad at the end of games.

[ClevelandBackersPrez]

untrue. Fairley will improve us in a pass rush along with run stopping, if merriman is back to form theres more pass rush...authur moats 2nd year another improvement, if we draft jimmy smith or someone decent for cb and possibly find another good ilb we may turn the tides for our defense dramatically.

I'm with this....don't forget Troup and Carrington either - especially Troup.

[skeletor]

I can't support the entire message that Shaunta is preaching.

Run defense, regardless of what happens on the other side of the ball is HANDS DOWN the most important need of this team. Pass rush being a VERY close second. That keeps you in ball games no matter how big of an egg the offense is laying.

Even Gailey said in his most recent presser a few days ago that the majoriity of the 9 picks will be on the defensive side of the ball. Well sir, they freakin' better be. That's all I'm sayin'.

[sechristbmw]

Gotta agree. But it doesn't have to be in round one necessarily.

No, but when your first rounders are either not on the team, average starters or depth players, chances of a 2nd or 3rd Rounder coming in and starting are slim odds.

As we saw last year, Troup at #41 couldn't come in and start.

[brian.thomson]

If we have a better offense that will put up points, the opposing team will have to pass the ball more. This will let our very good secondary do its thing and turn the ball over. AJ Green, Stevie Johnson and Lee Evans................Don't tell me that doesn't sound dominating

[jIM_Ohio]

Bell had several bad games, not just one. Gailey himself said he was "okay," and he wasn't smiling when he said it. We absolutely need to improve at LT, absolutely. I'm hoping that Bell can be the one who improves, but if he doesn't get a great deal better, they'll be grabbing an LT in the top two rounds over the next couple of years.

How many sacks did Bell give up in these bad games you speak of?

[sechristbmw]

If we have a better offense that will put up points, the opposing team will have to pass the ball more. This will let our very good secondary do its thing and turn the ball over. AJ Green, Stevie Johnson and Lee Evans................Don't tell me that doesn't sound dominating

Yeah it sounds dominating on paper, just like Marshawn, Freddy and Spiller sounded amazing last season.

Question is the offensive line is still the same, the QB is the same. Without spending high picks on the Defensive Front 7 the rush defense and pass rush stays the same.

Lee Evans is a role player as it is. TO didn't open him up, Steve J didn't open it up. So really you have AJ Green (not Calvin Johnson material) and Steve J.

[jeffadler]

Maybe if the offense could get a lead early in a game instead of averaging 2.5 points in the first quarter offenses wouldn't continually run the ball...

Stop using logic and reason.

A lot of members on this board say the run D is the only reason why we lost games, so it must be true!

[jeffadler]

Am I saying that the Bills should totally ignore the defense?

Not at all, however I am saying that they need to improve the offense as well.

Don't try putting words in my mouth, the offense sucks almost as bad as the defense does.

Until the offense gets better as well it would take a top 3 defense to make this team one that can make the playoffs. That is not happening even if all 9 picks were spent on the Defense...

Quoted for truth.

Newton in the first, then go heavy on defense.

[Thurman#1]

How many sacks did Bell give up in these bad games you speak of?

Enough. His problems also meant we often had to keep TEs and RBs in to block instead of sending them out on routes, which handicapped the offense quite a bit.

He also had lots of problems with run blocking, coming out average, and had some bad games there too.

[Thurman#1]

Gotta agree. But it doesn't have to be in round one necessarily.

No, but when your first rounders are either not on the team, average starters or depth players, chances of a 2nd or 3rd Rounder coming in and starting are slim odds.

As we saw last year, Troup at #41 couldn't come in and start.

Who cares if they come in and start? Certainly not me. We're rebuilding. As long as we get guys who make an impact starting in 2012 and 2013, that's all that matters. Next year means nothing.

Troup wasn't intended to be able to start this year. The minute Spiller, Troup and Carrington were picked, it was obvious they weren't going to be full-time starters. They were all intended as long-term picks. That's just the way it was. It's a luxury rebuilding teams have.