A Single Stat Will Tell You Who to Draft

[Thurman#1]

I can't support the entire message that Shaunta is preaching.

Run defense, regardless of what happens on the other side of the ball is HANDS DOWN the most important need of this team. Pass rush being a VERY close second. That keeps you in ball games no matter how big of an egg the offense is laying.

Even Gailey said in his most recent presser a few days ago that the majoriity of the 9 picks will be on the defensive side of the ball. Well sir, they freakin' better be. That's all I'm sayin'.

No, Gailey didn't say that.

He said “If I had to say today, I’d say we’re going to use most of our picks defensively." That's different. And although you may not like it, in the long term, running the ball and throwing the ball are just as important in winning a Super Bowl as the defensive categories.

We do have more obvious and larger holes in the defense, so it's the most important thing in the short run, but there's only one most important position on a football team, and we haven't got a franchise guy there.

[jIM_Ohio]

Enough.

He also had lots of problems with run blocking, coming out average, and had some bad games there too.

Enough because you are wrong, or enough because you don't have the data to backup your argument?

Prove to me Bell is not a good starting LT.

I am not going to annoint him as a star, but Buffalo can do much worse at LT... much worse... I doubt any rookie in this class can start ahead of him in 2011, and only think 1-2 LT in the draft even pan out 5 years from now.

If Bell does not work out at LT, he is clearly good enough for RT, or a guard position. He does not give up sacks, and is not called for many penalties.

If you think he is the cause of the running problems, then I ask how did Jackson avg 66 ypg as a starter (that is a 1000 yard season). And Spiller must have failed as a rookie because Bell could not block for him- YEAH that is the reason Spiller busted, never mind that when Spiller reads a block in year 2, it will be the first time he ever did that right.

Bell is not the problem on the OL, he may not be the total solution, but he is far from the problem.

[albwan]

Team Yds Rushing Outcome

Miami 132 Lost
GB 91 Lost
NE 208 Lost
NY 273 Lost
Jville 216 Lost
Bmore 135 Lost
KC 274 Lost
Chicago 105 Lost
Detroit 76 WON
Cincy 132 WON
Pitt 206 Lost
Minny 210 Lost
Cleveland 105 WON
Miami 65 WON
NE 216 Lost
NYJets 276 Lost


Does it suprise you that we won 4 out of the 5 games that we gave up the least amount of rushing yards for the season? GB is an anomoly because we turned the ball over 6 times. Does it suprise you that in the EIGHT games we gave up over 200 yards rushing we lost?!! This is the easiest draft the BILLS front office has ever had - we BETTER draft defense at LEAST 3 of the first 4 picks..

OMG YOUR A RACIST YOU HATE CAM NEWTON. No really you are 100% on the money tho.

[dddaryl]

stopping the run is a major priority to making this team better.

[skeletor]

No, Gailey didn't say that.

He said “If I had to say today, I’d say we’re going to use most of our picks defensively." That's different. And although you may not like it, in the long term, running the ball and throwing the ball are just as important in winning a Super Bowl as the defensive categories.

We do have more obvious and larger holes in the defense, so it's the most important thing in the short run, but there's only one most important position on a football team, and we haven't got a franchise guy there.

How is that not the same thing? Sorry I didn't have his exact quote on hand, but it's pretty obvious that we won't be drafting many running backs or wide receivers, dude.

Yes, running the ball is important. Spiller and Jackson. Nuff said.

Throwing the ball is important too. Fitz threw 25 Td's in 13 games last year. Nuff said.

Our O Line takes shape and actually stay healthy? Offense will be fine.

Our defense is DEAD LAST. DEAD LAST. DEAD LAST.

You don't win games with bad time of possession, and that's ALL run defense. You jokers who think a rookie QB at 3 is going to help this team, are kidding yourselves.

See my mock for an effective improvement in this defense and the last bit of the O Line. That is where you make real progress.

[G1BBONS]

Team Yds Rushing Outcome

Miami 132 Lost
GB 91 Lost
NE 208 Lost
NY 273 Lost
Jville 216 Lost
Bmore 135 Lost
KC 274 Lost
Chicago 105 Lost
Detroit 76 WON
Cincy 132 WON
Pitt 206 Lost
Minny 210 Lost
Cleveland 105 WON
Miami 65 WON
NE 216 Lost
NYJets 276 Lost


Does it suprise you that we won 4 out of the 5 games that we gave up the least amount of rushing yards for the season? GB is an anomoly because we turned the ball over 6 times. Does it suprise you that in the EIGHT games we gave up over 200 yards rushing we lost?!! This is the easiest draft the BILLS front office has ever had - we BETTER draft defense at LEAST 3 of the first 4 picks..

Preach it.

[mikey152]

Something else the Bills were #32 in the league in: Turnover differential at -17

And unlike rushing YPG, which shows some correlation, there is a DEFINITE correlation between turnovers and wins.

The Bills lost every game where they lost the turnover battle (10). They split the games where turnovers were even (Detriot and Miami #1) and they won all but one game were they won the turnover battle (4 games, Jacksonville).

They won the turnover battle FOUR TIMES. They turned the ball over in EVERY SINGLE game but one. They had 5 games were they forced no turnovers, and another 5 were they only forced 1.

Bottom line. It's everything. The offense turned the ball over too much and often at critical times. The defense didn't generate enough turnovers, epecially against good teams. There were several contributing factors. To act like one or another caused it is foolish

Speaking of which...I'm not even sure the majority of you understand WHY our run defense was so bad. You are so quick to point to it, but do you even know why it sucked? I mean, you all seem pretty sure that our young offensive lineman and WRs will get better, that Fitz will get better, etc....But there is no faith that our defensive rookies will improve? That a healthy Davis and Edwards can help? That Merriman can't come back? Why the leap of faith for offense but not defense?

If you actually look at our roster, our biggest needs are at ILB and DB, not OLB and DL. Some of you need to wake up, or you are going to be really disappointed come draft day when we draft at least 2 corners and a safety....and maybe only one DL.

[TigerJ]

My preference is to go defense in the first round, and to go with a front seven player at that. Still, if the Bills are convinced that Newton and/or Gabbert is a franchise QB, that is the direction they will go.

[jIM_Ohio]

Bottom line. It's everything. The offense turned the ball over too much and often at critical times. The defense didn't generate enough turnovers, epecially against good teams. There were several contributing factors. To act like one or another caused it is foolish

Speaking of which...I'm not even sure the majority of you understand WHY our run defense was so bad. You are so quick to point to it, but do you even know why it sucked? I mean, you all seem pretty sure that our young offensive lineman and WRs will get better, that Fitz will get better, etc....But there is no faith that our defensive rookies will improve? That a healthy Davis and Edwards can help? That Merriman can't come back? Why the leap of faith for offense but not defense?

If you actually look at our roster, our biggest needs are at ILB and DB, not OLB and DL. Some of you need to wake up, or you are going to be really disappointed come draft day when we draft at least 2 corners and a safety....and maybe only one DL.

Bolded for emphasis and snipped something to emphasize the important stuff

[sechristbmw]

Something else the Bills were #32 in the league in: Turnover differential at -17

And unlike rushing YPG, which shows some correlation, there is a DEFINITE correlation between turnovers and wins.

The Bills lost every game where they lost the turnover battle (10). They split the games where turnovers were even (Detriot and Miami #1) and they won all but one game were they won the turnover battle (4 games, Jacksonville).

They won the turnover battle FOUR TIMES. They turned the ball over in EVERY SINGLE game but one. They had 5 games were they forced no turnovers, and another 5 were they only forced 1.

Bottom line. It's everything. The offense turned the ball over too much and often at critical times. The defense didn't generate enough turnovers, epecially against good teams. There were several contributing factors. To act like one or another caused it is foolish

Speaking of which...I'm not even sure the majority of you understand WHY our run defense was so bad. You are so quick to point to it, but do you even know why it sucked? I mean, you all seem pretty sure that our young offensive lineman and WRs will get better, that Fitz will get better, etc....But there is no faith that our defensive rookies will improve? That a healthy Davis and Edwards can help? That Merriman can't come back? Why the leap of faith for offense but not defense?

If you actually look at our roster, our biggest needs are at ILB and DB, not OLB and DL. Some of you need to wake up, or you are going to be really disappointed come draft day when we draft at least 2 corners and a safety....and maybe only one DL.

Our run defense will not improve much with a pair of 30 year olds back in the lineup. They have instincts true, too bad they run 5.2 40's at this point in their careers.

Edwards was a decent player before he got hurt. He was "a guy" out there.

We gave up 200 yards or more 8 times last year. Every other game we were giving up 200 yards.

I agree with you about ILB. Heck I think we need an entire new set of linebackers who actually have some quickness, but our D-Line is mediocre compared to Playoff teams. Outside of Kyle Williams its slim. When Spencer Johnson is getting minutes, its bad.

[ClevelandBackersPrez]

Something else the Bills were #32 in the league in: Turnover differential at -17

And unlike rushing YPG, which shows some correlation, there is a DEFINITE correlation between turnovers and wins.

The Bills lost every game where they lost the turnover battle (10). They split the games where turnovers were even (Detriot and Miami #1) and they won all but one game were they won the turnover battle (4 games, Jacksonville).

They won the turnover battle FOUR TIMES. They turned the ball over in EVERY SINGLE game but one. They had 5 games were they forced no turnovers, and another 5 were they only forced 1.

Bottom line. It's everything. The offense turned the ball over too much and often at critical times. The defense didn't generate enough turnovers, epecially against good teams. There were several contributing factors. To act like one or another caused it is foolish

Speaking of which...I'm not even sure the majority of you understand WHY our run defense was so bad. You are so quick to point to it, but do you even know why it sucked? I mean, you all seem pretty sure that our young offensive lineman and WRs will get better, that Fitz will get better, etc....But there is no faith that our defensive rookies will improve? That a healthy Davis and Edwards can help? That Merriman can't come back? Why the leap of faith for offense but not defense?

If you actually look at our roster, our biggest needs are at ILB and DB, not OLB and DL. Some of you need to wake up, or you are going to be really disappointed come draft day when we draft at least 2 corners and a safety....and maybe only one DL.

Mikey, this is a great post. I agree with all the potential offensive improvements but didn't really think about D. Edwards was our 2nd best DL by far before he got hurt. Merriman at 90% of his old form would be nasty and Andra Davis was hurt in week 1 and never really healthy all last season...also, could Leodis improve at corner? How about Troup, Carrington and Arthur Moats?

[billsdog]

purely common sense but most bills fans will scream for an over rated QB pick at #3. sad to say but why argue with people that want a name not a team. tom Brady would suck if he played for the bills and put up half the #'s he has with N.E.

[mikey152]

Our run defense will not improve much with a pair of 30 year olds back in the lineup. They have instincts true, too bad they run 5.2 40's at this point in their careers.

Edwards was a decent player before he got hurt. He was "a guy" out there.

We gave up 200 yards or more 8 times last year. Every other game we were giving up 200 yards.

I agree with you about ILB. Heck I think we need an entire new set of linebackers who actually have some quickness, but our D-Line is mediocre compared to Playoff teams. Outside of Kyle Williams its slim. When Spencer Johnson is getting minutes, its bad.

Edwards and Johnson are younger than Pickett and Jenkins. Probably fast, too. And Edwards isn't just "a guy" any more than most of the rookies in this class will be just "a guy". He was a former high second round pick by a much better FO than ours.

Carrington and Troup are second year guys. Both have high ceilings.

Not sure what your point is...alot of our players are mediocre compared to playoff teams. Why single out DL where our only probowler, our top FA and two of our first 3 picks last year play?

[Megabust3434]

Don't forget about Moats, he played extremely well towards the end of the season.

Moats(Maybin)
Martez(Davis)
Poz
Merriman

Dareus
K. Williams
D. Edwards



Front seven sounds OK to me?!?! I would say plug Von Miller there into the linebackers and take out Dareus, but that scares me on the defensive line without him. I would much rather draft a guy like Dareus and have him stuffing the run.

Either way, we can't go quarterback, we just can't

[El Gato]

Why do I get the feeling...

that the people screaming the loudest for a round 1 QB are the same people who will be whining the loudest when we have no pass rush and can't stop anyone on third and short.

[jIM_Ohio]

Why do I get the feeling...

that the people screaming the loudest for a round 1 QB are the same people who will be whining the loudest when we have no pass rush and can't stop anyone on third and short.

And the people screaming for Dareus will be the ones which cry the loudest when Fitz throws an INT.

But at least Spiller can still return the kicks.

[BillsExpert]

The offense still has issues. The right side of the line was the problem. Bell was rehabing last year, not strengthening. He was limitd in training camp, he will improve. The line is the need. This would help Fitz and Spiller.

I'm still leaning towards fixing the D though. Teams had there choice of whether to run or pass. Couldn't stop it and couldn't rush the QB to help force turnovers. Dareus, Bowers, or Fairley would be my choice. Then get more LB talent in here. If an O lineman is rated better than the LB, then please grab him. This team has a lot of holes.

[Glorydays]

The bold is the Bills offenses results on third down in those 8 games...

32.6, which is down from their season average of 37.9 (18th)...

That 32.6 conversion percentage would rank them 27th in the league...

If they can't stay on the field offensively, other teams are going to run all over them...

You ARE research!!!!

/thread.

[pmathi]

god, we gave up over 200 years 8 games, half the god**** season.

stopping the run is a mandatory. the question is, do you take that guy 3rd overall or the supposed franchise QB?

There is no franchise QB in this draft so...

[sechristbmw]

Edwards and Johnson are younger than Pickett and Jenkins. Probably fast, too. And Edwards isn't just "a guy" any more than most of the rookies in this class will be just "a guy". He was a former high second round pick by a much better FO than ours.

Carrington and Troup are second year guys. Both have high ceilings.

Not sure what your point is...alot of our players are mediocre compared to playoff teams. Why single out DL where our only probowler, our top FA and two of our first 3 picks last year play?

One point is - I don't care how many linebackers we were missing last year. Fact is Andra Davis and Reggie Torbor weren't going to get the run defense any better than #30 even if they were in there the whole year. They are slow guys who got cut with the Broncos and Dolphins respectfully.

Dwan Edwards is 30 years old, coming off IR this year. He played 'ok' before he was injured, nothing above average. If he was so good the Ravens would have resigned him. Spencer Johnson is a marginal NFL player who has been in the league for years. A deep reserve guy.

Marcus Stroud was a former high first round pick, he sucked last season, what is your point on bringing up draft position?

The overall point is our D-Line is marginal, our linebackers are poor Mikey. I don't see how you can see it any other way. Last against the run, 27 sacks on the year. How can you conclude the D-Line is not a problem? Buddy has stated and shown that FA is not the primary way the Bills will be built so what, we draft two rookies on the D-Line and we are done?

Just because you throw some resources at it, doesn't mean its fixed, our FAs last season were very average and our rookie DL didn't play....