Matthews: Hoping the Buffalo Bills don't take a QB No. 34

[sadbrad]

by Bob Matthews

The Buffalo Bills reportedly are considering selecting a quarterback with the 34th overall pick (second pick in the second round) in Thursday night's NFL draft.

Assuming Buffalo doesn't land Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert in the first round, I'd much prefer that the Bills select a probable immediate defensive starter with the No. 34 pick than take a shot on one of the several less-than-elite QB prospects.

My theory is that the really good QBs are chosen in the first round. A talented NFL team can afford to gamble on a QB prospect in the second round but the lesser teams can't afford that luxury.

I'm so opposed to using the No. 34 pick on a QB that I was inspired to check out the history of second-round QB picks. Here's what I came up with:


Since 1970, the 41 NFL drafts have produced 41 second-round QB picks. Here's how I rate them:

Too soon to categorize (6) – Tarvaris Jackson (2006), Kellen Clemens (2006), Kevin Kolb (2007), Drew Stanton (2007), Chad Henne (2008), Jimmy Clausen (2010).

Disasters (13) – Bill Cappelman (1970), Gary Keithley (1973), Jeb Blount (1976), Glenn Carano (1977), Guy Benjamin (1978), Gene Bradley (1980 by the Bills), Mike Elkins (1989), Matt Blundin (1992), Tony Sacca (1992), Marques Tuiasosopo (2001), John Beck (2007), Brian Brohm (2008), Pat White (2009).

Poor (9) – Pat Sullivan (1972), Gary Huff (1973), Mike Kruczek (1976), Oliver Luck (1981), Matt Kofler (1982 by the Bills), Jack Trudeau (1986), Billy Joe Tolliver (1989), Browning Nagle (1991), Quincy Carter (2000).

Fair (3) – Matt Cavanaugh (1978), Tony Banks (1996), Shaun King (1999).


Average (2) – Todd Collins (by the Bills in 1995; I'm being generous; he's lasted in the NFL a long time), Charlie Batch (1998).

Good (1) – Dennis Shaw (by the Bills in 1970).

Very good (2) – Neil Lomax (1981), Jake Plummer (1997).


Excellent (5) – Ron Jaworski (No. 37 pick in 1977), Boomer Esiason (No. 38 pick in 1984), Randall Cunningham (No. 37 pick in 1985), Brett Favre (No. 33 pick in 1991), Drew Brees (No. 32 pick in 2001).

I don't believe any QB that will be available to Buffalo at No. 34 is a potential Favre or Brees — but maybe the Bills do.

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/...0101/104270378

[anmbourcier]

Yea I saw that earlier. I like Mallett or Ponder in second if available

[LTarmy]

I'm not a huge Bob Matthew fan....but I get what he is saying.

I also think that a run on QBs (Mallett, Ponder and Locker) will start in the mid 20s and if Buffalo waits until 34...it may be too late.

The best course of action may be to fix the defense. Many people feel that this draft lacks elite talent...I disagree. It lacks an college QB this year....and that has impacted lots of people's opinion in this years draft.

I think the Bills should go Miller at #3 and target the best DE/ILB at 34.

The Bills have so many holes on offense, but the defense is a joke. If they want to compete at all this year, they need to improve the front 7.

If Locker/Kilenpatrick(misspelled).Ponder are there....then maybe take a look, but I think improving the defense is the way to go.

[BigDaveyL]

I'm not a huge Bob Matthew fan....but I get what he is saying.

I also think that a run on QBs (Mallett, Ponder and Locker) will start in the mid 20s and if Buffalo waits until 34...it may be too late.

The best course of action may be to fix the defense. Many people feel that this draft lacks elite talent...I disagree. It lacks an college QB this year....and that has impacted lots of people's opinion in this years draft.

I think the Bills should go Miller at #3 and target the best DE/ILB at 34.

The Bills have so many holes on offense, but the defense is a joke. If they want to compete at all this year, they need to improve the front 7.

If Locker/Kilenpatrick(misspelled).Ponder are there....then maybe take a look, but I think improving the defense is the way to go.

Haven't the draft pundits said that this draft is good for DL and OLB?

I'd draft a healthly amount of defense, if that is the case.

[Chuck Norris EDIT actually nevermind]

#34 is a lot different than #60. Can't really make such broad arguments. Each round consists of 32 picks with a significant drop off in talent as you move along.

[BillsLunaticEZE]

If you notice the pattern all the great 2nd round picks have been early second round. At 34, they are getting a first round talent.

[banditrc]

Haven't the draft pundits said that this draft is good for DL and OLB?

I'd draft a healthly amount of defense, if that is the case.

This is a really good thing for us, because we should be able to get some players we need. But, like they always say, the best players come off the board first, so there will probably be a lot of DL and OLB taken early.

[banditrc]

If you notice the pattern all the great 2nd round picks have been early second round. At 34, they are getting a first round talent.

34 is a high spot, and I'm inclined to think if they really do love one of the "2nd tier" quarterbacks then they'll trade up to get him. Lets just hope that trade works out better than the JP Losman experiment if it happens, lol.

[sillyjarhead]

Mallet in the 2nd

[rjmarkin]

I hate the last sentence... If any of the guys had the potential to be a Brees or Favre.. They wouldnt be going in the 2nd round... Its a crap shoot.. No one thought Brees would be as good as he was, or else Atlanta would have taken him over Vick...

[El Buffalo LOCO]

Matthews is horrible. He just convinced me they should do it! 1 out of 8 2nd round QB's wind up outstanding.

Does 1 of every 8 first round pick wind up outstanding?

I bet the percentage is fairly even. Less pressure to start immediately. Less pressure due to huge investment. I think it may even be better for the QB's to be 2nd round picks!

[El Buffalo LOCO]

Between this post and the other one with that scout calling Locker Favre I am no CONVINCED!

LOCKER IN THE 2ND BABY!!!

[bdietze]

100% agreed!

3rd pick: Dareus, Fairley or Peterson

34: Bruce Carter - ILB or Rudolf - TE

[InDaZone]

This is what i've been saying. Any QB they take with their #34 pick is going to be a reach over the defensive talent that may slip. It would smell of desperation to fill a position instead of taking a potential contributor.

[inthebuff]

You could do the same with the 1st rounders. Why didn't he expand his article to make 1st and 2nd rounders and why you don't take them.

Then 3rd through 7th. And why you don't take them there.

It's a 100% crapshoot when it comes to QBs. About 40% of the 1st rounders are busts, as well.

I still think that the the reason the QBs are successful is because the team has a plan on how to build around the QB and are working towards that at the same time.

Take a look at the success the Rams had with Sam Bradford. Was it because of him or because they got a stud Tackle at the top of the 2nd round (Roger Saffold) or both?

If Carolina takes Newton at number 2 there will be a clamor to play him right away over Jimmy Clausen, especially because Clausen will struggle with essentially the same team they had last year, because they will not have another pick until number 67 and another at No. 97. Can you really take a very bad team and make them better by inserting a "franchise QB" into the mix? It's a recipe for disaster. Newton is doomed to be a big huge bust if Carolina picks him. He's got almost no chance to succeed.

By contrast, New England has 3 of the first 33 picks. Let's say for example that NE decides to trade all three of these picks to Carolina for Cam Newton as the heir apparent to Brady. And Newton has 3-4 years to ride the bench and learn from Bellicheat and Brady? What would be his chance for great success?

There's no way to know, but if SF had taken Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith, and Smith was able to learn at GB like Rodgers did, would we be praising Smith or Rodgers?

[mrbojanglezs]

#34 is a lot different than #60. Can't really make such broad arguments. Each round consists of 32 picks with a significant drop off in talent as you move along.

good point, all the great qbs were taken in the low-mid 30s right where we sit at 34...

[InDaZone]

You could do the same with the 1st rounders. Why didn't he expand his article to make 1st and 2nd rounders and why you don't take them.

Then 3rd through 7th. And why you don't take them there.

It's a 100% crapshoot when it comes to QBs. About 40% of the 1st rounders are busts, as well.

I still think that the the reason the QBs are successful is because the team has a plan on how to build around the QB and are working towards that at the same time.

Take a look at the success the Rams had with Sam Bradford. Was it because of him or because they got a stud Tackle at the top of the 2nd round (Roger Saffold) or both?

If Carolina takes Newton at number 2 there will be a clamor to play him right away over Jimmy Clausen, especially because Clausen will struggle with essentially the same team they had last year, because they will not have another pick until number 67 and another at No. 97. Can you really take a very bad team and make them better by inserting a "franchise QB" into the mix? It's a recipe for disaster. Newton is doomed to be a big huge bust if Carolina picks him. He's got almost no chance to succeed.

By contrast, New England has 3 of the first 33 picks. Let's say for example that NE decides to trade all three of these picks to Carolina for Cam Newton as the heir apparent to Brady. And Newton has 3-4 years to ride the bench and learn from Bellicheat and Brady? What would be his chance for great success?

There's no way to know, but if SF had taken Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith, and Smith was able to learn at GB like Rodgers did, would we be praising Smith or Rodgers?

The statistics show better odds of finding a franchise guy in the 1st round. Just look around the league.

[inthebuff]

The statistics show better odds of finding a franchise guy in the 1st round. Just look around the league.

And I countered these odds in the post?

I said it's a 100% crapshoot. And it depends on what the team is doing to help the QB drafted in the first round.

I posted earlier today about the top drafted qb's...the list of all taken in the first round.

Which of these three from 2006 would you take right now? And who would you have taken back in the day? Don't tell me Cutler was your number one guy.
2006
Rd # Player College Team
1 3 Vince Young Texas Tennessee Titans
1 10 Matt Leinart USC Arizona Cardinals
1 11 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt Denver Broncos

Which of these three?
2005
1 1 Alex Smith Utah San Francisco 49ers
1 24 Aaron Rodgers California Green Bay Packers
1 25 Jason Campbell Auburn Washington Redskins

Would you now take Losman over Shaub? Eli over Rapelesberger?
2004
1 1 Eli Manning Mississippi San Diego Chargers
1 4 Philip Rivers North Carolina State New York Giants
1 11 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) Pittsburgh Steelers
1 22 J.P. Losman Tulane Buffalo Bills
Others:
3 90 Matt Schaub Virginia Atlanta Falcons

Which of these 7 first round picks would you take right now from 2002-2003
2003
1 1 Carson Palmer USC Cincinnati Bengals
1 7 Byron Leftwich Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars
1 19 Kyle Boller California Baltimore Ravens
1 22 Rex Grossman Florida Chicago Bears

2002
1 1 David Carr Fresno State Houston Texans
1 3 Joey Harrington Oregon Detroit Lions
1 32 Patrick Ramsey Tulane Washington Redskins

[ClevelandBackersPrez]

I posted this thread a month ago - the last 15 years or drafts and the 2nd round QBs - only Brees has truly been successful. It's a pick at #3 (I hope not with this years top guys) or a later round development guy.

Also Bob, the BILLS would be using the 2nd round pick on Friday night, not Thursday night.

[LTarmy]

And I countered these odds in the post?

I said it's a 100% crapshoot. And it depends on what the team is doing to help the QB drafted in the first round.

I posted earlier today about the top drafted qb's...the list of all taken in the first round.

Which of these three from 2006 would you take right now? And who would you have taken back in the day? Don't tell me Cutler was your number one guy.
2006
Rd # Player College Team
1 3 Vince Young Texas Tennessee Titans
1 10 Matt Leinart USC Arizona Cardinals
1 11 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt Denver Broncos

Which of these three?
2005
1 1 Alex Smith Utah San Francisco 49ers
1 24 Aaron Rodgers California Green Bay Packers
1 25 Jason Campbell Auburn Washington Redskins

Would you now take Losman over Shaub? Eli over Rapelesberger?
2004
1 1 Eli Manning Mississippi San Diego Chargers
1 4 Philip Rivers North Carolina State New York Giants
1 11 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) Pittsburgh Steelers
1 22 J.P. Losman Tulane Buffalo Bills
Others:
3 90 Matt Schaub Virginia Atlanta Falcons

Which of these 7 first round picks would you take right now from 2002-2003
2003
1 1 Carson Palmer USC Cincinnati Bengals
1 7 Byron Leftwich Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars
1 19 Kyle Boller California Baltimore Ravens
1 22 Rex Grossman Florida Chicago Bears

2002
1 1 David Carr Fresno State Houston Texans
1 3 Joey Harrington Oregon Detroit Lions
1 32 Patrick Ramsey Tulane Washington Redskins

It is all a crap shoot....but odds are better that you'll find a franchise guy in the first then in rounds 2-7.

I've read your post....you aren't "wrong"....but I think that overall...you hit more often in the first then in other rounds.

What sucks about missing in the first round is the money and time involved.

Like I said in a different thread....ESPN looked at 2nd round QBs drafted from 1998 thru 2009...over that time....Jake Plummer and Dree Brees were considered "hits" and acknowledge that Plummer was a stretch to call a hit.

You look around the league, the vast majorty of Franchise Guys were found in the 1st round:

Rivers
Big Ben,
P.Manning
Ryan
Flacco (I think he flies under the radar)
Rodgers
Cutler (on think he is on the brink of being considered a franchise guy)

If Brees was drafted at the same spot in 2011....he would be considered a 1st round pick (I think he was the 32 pick)

Yes, there are some very good franchise guys who were plucked in the 2nd or later:

Brady (going on a limb there)
Cassel (I don't buy the franchsie talk, but he was better this last year)
Romo ( I think he is hyped because he plays for Dallas...but he isn't bad)

I think your odds improve in this "crap shoot" when you select your guy in the first round....just my opinion.