Matthews: Hoping the Buffalo Bills don't take a QB No. 34

[sadbrad]

by Bob Matthews

The Buffalo Bills reportedly are considering selecting a quarterback with the 34th overall pick (second pick in the second round) in Thursday night's NFL draft.

Assuming Buffalo doesn't land Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert in the first round, I'd much prefer that the Bills select a probable immediate defensive starter with the No. 34 pick than take a shot on one of the several less-than-elite QB prospects.

My theory is that the really good QBs are chosen in the first round. A talented NFL team can afford to gamble on a QB prospect in the second round but the lesser teams can't afford that luxury.

I'm so opposed to using the No. 34 pick on a QB that I was inspired to check out the history of second-round QB picks. Here's what I came up with:


Since 1970, the 41 NFL drafts have produced 41 second-round QB picks. Here's how I rate them:

Too soon to categorize (6) – Tarvaris Jackson (2006), Kellen Clemens (2006), Kevin Kolb (2007), Drew Stanton (2007), Chad Henne (2008), Jimmy Clausen (2010).

Disasters (13) – Bill Cappelman (1970), Gary Keithley (1973), Jeb Blount (1976), Glenn Carano (1977), Guy Benjamin (1978), Gene Bradley (1980 by the Bills), Mike Elkins (1989), Matt Blundin (1992), Tony Sacca (1992), Marques Tuiasosopo (2001), John Beck (2007), Brian Brohm (2008), Pat White (2009).

Poor (9) – Pat Sullivan (1972), Gary Huff (1973), Mike Kruczek (1976), Oliver Luck (1981), Matt Kofler (1982 by the Bills), Jack Trudeau (1986), Billy Joe Tolliver (1989), Browning Nagle (1991), Quincy Carter (2000).

Fair (3) – Matt Cavanaugh (1978), Tony Banks (1996), Shaun King (1999).


Average (2) – Todd Collins (by the Bills in 1995; I'm being generous; he's lasted in the NFL a long time), Charlie Batch (1998).

Good (1) – Dennis Shaw (by the Bills in 1970).

Very good (2) – Neil Lomax (1981), Jake Plummer (1997).


Excellent (5) – Ron Jaworski (No. 37 pick in 1977), Boomer Esiason (No. 38 pick in 1984), Randall Cunningham (No. 37 pick in 1985), Brett Favre (No. 33 pick in 1991), Drew Brees (No. 32 pick in 2001).

I don't believe any QB that will be available to Buffalo at No. 34 is a potential Favre or Brees — but maybe the Bills do.

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/...0101/104270378

[anmbourcier]

Yea I saw that earlier. I like Mallett or Ponder in second if available

[LTarmy]

I'm not a huge Bob Matthew fan....but I get what he is saying.

I also think that a run on QBs (Mallett, Ponder and Locker) will start in the mid 20s and if Buffalo waits until 34...it may be too late.

The best course of action may be to fix the defense. Many people feel that this draft lacks elite talent...I disagree. It lacks an college QB this year....and that has impacted lots of people's opinion in this years draft.

I think the Bills should go Miller at #3 and target the best DE/ILB at 34.

The Bills have so many holes on offense, but the defense is a joke. If they want to compete at all this year, they need to improve the front 7.

If Locker/Kilenpatrick(misspelled).Ponder are there....then maybe take a look, but I think improving the defense is the way to go.

[BigDaveyL]

I'm not a huge Bob Matthew fan....but I get what he is saying.

I also think that a run on QBs (Mallett, Ponder and Locker) will start in the mid 20s and if Buffalo waits until 34...it may be too late.

The best course of action may be to fix the defense. Many people feel that this draft lacks elite talent...I disagree. It lacks an college QB this year....and that has impacted lots of people's opinion in this years draft.

I think the Bills should go Miller at #3 and target the best DE/ILB at 34.

The Bills have so many holes on offense, but the defense is a joke. If they want to compete at all this year, they need to improve the front 7.

If Locker/Kilenpatrick(misspelled).Ponder are there....then maybe take a look, but I think improving the defense is the way to go.

Haven't the draft pundits said that this draft is good for DL and OLB?

I'd draft a healthly amount of defense, if that is the case.

[banditrc]

Haven't the draft pundits said that this draft is good for DL and OLB?

I'd draft a healthly amount of defense, if that is the case.

This is a really good thing for us, because we should be able to get some players we need. But, like they always say, the best players come off the board first, so there will probably be a lot of DL and OLB taken early.

[sadbrad]

I'm not a huge Bob Matthew fan....but I get what he is saying.

I also think that a run on QBs (Mallett, Ponder and Locker) will start in the mid 20s and if Buffalo waits until 34...it may be too late.

The best course of action may be to fix the defense. Many people feel that this draft lacks elite talent...I disagree. It lacks an college QB this year....and that has impacted lots of people's opinion in this years draft.

I think the Bills should go Miller at #3 and target the best DE/ILB at 34.

The Bills have so many holes on offense, but the defense is a joke. If they want to compete at all this year, they need to improve the front 7.

If Locker/Kilenpatrick(misspelled).Ponder are there....then maybe take a look, but I think improving the defense is the way to go.

The only team I see in the mid 20's who needs a QB is Seattle.

[LTarmy]

The only team I see in the mid 20's who needs a QB is Seattle.

Here is what I'm thinking...and keep in mind, I may be wrong: Good teams like the Pats and Colts are always planning for the future. I can see both of those teams drafting a qB and grooming them for 2-3 years....like GB.

Manning is 35 and Brady is 34. Both have brought in QBs that may be early 2nd round picks (Locker, Kapernick). Add in Seattle....that is three QBs that may be taken off the board.

Don't discount the possiblty of the Vikes and Jags taken a QB early. Mallett IMO will be gone before the end of the 1st.

I think GB has inadvertly will have started a trend....draft a Qb with a first round grade and groom him for a few years in your system.

[sadbrad]

Here is what I'm thinking...and keep in mind, I may be wrong: Good teams like the Pats and Colts are always planning for the future. I can see both of those teams drafting a qB and grooming them for 2-3 years....like GB.

Manning is 35 and Brady is 34. Both have brought in QBs that may be early 2nd round picks (Locker, Kapernick). Add in Seattle....that is three QBs that may be taken off the board.

Don't discount the possiblty of the Vikes and Jags taken a QB early. Mallett IMO will be gone before the end of the 1st.

I think GB has inadvertly will have started a trend....draft a Qb with a first round grade and groom him for a few years in your system.

There are several teams who can use a starting QB. But none of them are after 20. I feel there's a better chance of some of these teams either trading back or into the first round to get a QB.

[adrenaline]

Yea I saw that earlier. I like Mallett or Ponder in second if available

I like Mallett as well, but Ponder is a possible injury problem and may never be 100% again. Kaepernick is alot better then Ponder since he doesn't have a bum shoulder like Ponder and Kaepernick has a rocket arm with WR speed.

[Chuck Norris EDIT actually nevermind]

#34 is a lot different than #60. Can't really make such broad arguments. Each round consists of 32 picks with a significant drop off in talent as you move along.

[mrbojanglezs]

#34 is a lot different than #60. Can't really make such broad arguments. Each round consists of 32 picks with a significant drop off in talent as you move along.

good point, all the great qbs were taken in the low-mid 30s right where we sit at 34...

[BillsLunaticEZE]

If you notice the pattern all the great 2nd round picks have been early second round. At 34, they are getting a first round talent.

[banditrc]

If you notice the pattern all the great 2nd round picks have been early second round. At 34, they are getting a first round talent.

34 is a high spot, and I'm inclined to think if they really do love one of the "2nd tier" quarterbacks then they'll trade up to get him. Lets just hope that trade works out better than the JP Losman experiment if it happens, lol.

[sillyjarhead]

Mallet in the 2nd

[rjmarkin]

I hate the last sentence... If any of the guys had the potential to be a Brees or Favre.. They wouldnt be going in the 2nd round... Its a crap shoot.. No one thought Brees would be as good as he was, or else Atlanta would have taken him over Vick...

[El Buffalo LOCO]

Matthews is horrible. He just convinced me they should do it! 1 out of 8 2nd round QB's wind up outstanding.

Does 1 of every 8 first round pick wind up outstanding?

I bet the percentage is fairly even. Less pressure to start immediately. Less pressure due to huge investment. I think it may even be better for the QB's to be 2nd round picks!

[El Buffalo LOCO]

Between this post and the other one with that scout calling Locker Favre I am no CONVINCED!

LOCKER IN THE 2ND BABY!!!

[bdietze]

100% agreed!

3rd pick: Dareus, Fairley or Peterson

34: Bruce Carter - ILB or Rudolf - TE

[InDaZone]

This is what i've been saying. Any QB they take with their #34 pick is going to be a reach over the defensive talent that may slip. It would smell of desperation to fill a position instead of taking a potential contributor.

[inthebuff]

You could do the same with the 1st rounders. Why didn't he expand his article to make 1st and 2nd rounders and why you don't take them.

Then 3rd through 7th. And why you don't take them there.

It's a 100% crapshoot when it comes to QBs. About 40% of the 1st rounders are busts, as well.

I still think that the the reason the QBs are successful is because the team has a plan on how to build around the QB and are working towards that at the same time.

Take a look at the success the Rams had with Sam Bradford. Was it because of him or because they got a stud Tackle at the top of the 2nd round (Roger Saffold) or both?

If Carolina takes Newton at number 2 there will be a clamor to play him right away over Jimmy Clausen, especially because Clausen will struggle with essentially the same team they had last year, because they will not have another pick until number 67 and another at No. 97. Can you really take a very bad team and make them better by inserting a "franchise QB" into the mix? It's a recipe for disaster. Newton is doomed to be a big huge bust if Carolina picks him. He's got almost no chance to succeed.

By contrast, New England has 3 of the first 33 picks. Let's say for example that NE decides to trade all three of these picks to Carolina for Cam Newton as the heir apparent to Brady. And Newton has 3-4 years to ride the bench and learn from Bellicheat and Brady? What would be his chance for great success?

There's no way to know, but if SF had taken Aaron Rodgers instead of Alex Smith, and Smith was able to learn at GB like Rodgers did, would we be praising Smith or Rodgers?