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Thread: KC Joyner ranks the 2012 WR Draft Class

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
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    Default KC Joyner ranks the 2012 WR Draft Class

    Buffalo Bills

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    You'll be surprised to see who is number one.

    With the NFL on the precipice of what could be the decade of the pass, it's not a surprise that quarterbacks such as Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are garnering the bulk of the draft headlines.

    Quarterbacks can't make it happen without pass-catchers, however, so let's take a closer look at what the metrics have to say about the top 10 wide receivers in this year's draft.

    Each wideout was ranked in the following categories: age, height, weight, 40-yard dash time, overall yards per attempt (YPA), short pass yards per attempt (SYPA), vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) and stretch vertical yards per attempt (SVYPA). (Note: Short passes are aerials thrown 10 yards or less downfield; vertical passes travel 11 or more yards; stretch verticals are thrown 20 or more yards. Each player's metrics are based on a tape review of a minimum of nine 2011 contests against BCS conference-caliber opponents.)

    The players' rankings in each category were then tabulated on a 1-10 scale with the best score getting a rating of 1. The category rankings were then added up and are listed under the ranking points heading (with a lower score being better).

    Now that we have the prelims out of the way, let's take a look at how the rankings turned out.

    1. Stephen Hill
    Birth date: May 1, 1990 (21 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-foot-4, 215 pounds
    40-yard dash time: 4.36
    YPA: 12.0 (43 targets)
    SYPA: 4.0 (13 targets)
    VYPA: 15.5 (30 targets)
    SVYPA: 17.2 (22 targets)
    Ranking points: 27
    Hill is highly rated on many draft boards, but a combination of factors puts him at the top of this ranking chart, factors including his showings in YPA (first), VYPA (second), height (first), 40 time (first) and birth date (third). There is every reason to think he could be just as explosive in the NFL as Georgia Tech predecessor Demaryius Thomas has been, but without the nagging injury issues that have held Thomas back.

    2. Rueben Randle
    Birth date: May 7, 1991 (20 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-3, 210
    40-yard dash: 4.55
    YPA: 10.7 (70 targets)
    SYPA: 7.2 (38 targets)
    VYPA: 14.7 (32 targets)
    SVYPA: 18.6 (17 targets)
    Ranking points: 31
    Randle ranked in the top four in every YPA category and did so in an offense piloted by Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson, two quarterbacks who were so limited that the LSU offensive coaching brain trust never did let them cut loose in the passing game. He also posted these numbers against SEC-caliber competition. Randle is also the second-tallest wideout of this group and is easily the youngest (no other player was born in 1991).

    3. Jarius Wright
    Birth date: Nov. 25, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 5-10, 182
    40-yard dash: 4.42
    YPA: 10.9 (88 targets)
    SYPA: 6.5 (50 targets)
    VYPA: 16.7 (38 targets)
    SVYPA: 19.0 (23 targets)
    Ranking points: 38
    Wright's speed (he ranked third in the 40-yard dash category) was the primary reason he topped this group in VYPA and was third in SVYPA. He does have some potential roadblocks in that he is the second-lightest and fourth-shortest wide receiver in this comparison, but he did post these figures against SEC-caliber competition, so the positives well outweigh the negatives.

    4 (tie). A.J. Jenkins
    Birth date: Nov. 8, 1990 (21 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-0, 190 pounds
    40-yard dash: 4.39
    YPA: 9.4 (102 targets)
    SYPA: 6.0 (60 targets)
    VYPA: 14.3 (42 targets)
    SVYPA: 16.3 (27 targets)
    Ranking points: 44
    The main issue in Jenkins' relatively low-ranking points total is that he's here because he ranked second in both the 40-yard dash and age categories. He ranked no higher than fifth in any of the YPA categories, and those numbers were actually skewed by the 90 yards he gained against blown coverages last year. Jenkins is also the third-shortest and third-lightest wideout in this analysis. Put it all together and he might not be as good as the overall points suggest.

    4 (tie). Kendall Wright
    Birth date: Nov. 12, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 5-10, 196
    40-yard dash: 4.61
    YPA: 11.4 (100 targets)
    SYPA: 8.1 (55 targets)
    VYPA: 15.4 (45 targets)
    SVYPA: 20.7 (19 targets)
    Ranking points: 44
    Wright ranked third or higher in every YPA category but still has a few concerns. A review of Griffin's numbers showed that his vertical metrics were actually better on passes to other Baylor receivers than they were on passes to Wright, so Wright may have benefited more from RG3 than vice versa. Wright is also the shortest and slowest wideout of this group (though he plays faster than his 40 time), as well as the second-oldest and fourth-lightest.

    6 (tie). Justin Blackmon
    Birth date: Jan. 9, 1990 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-1, 207
    40-yard dash time: 4.46
    YPA: 9.0 (139 targets)
    SYPA: 8.1 (85 targets)
    VYPA: 10.6 (54 targets)
    SVYPA: 8.9 (20 targets)
    Ranking points: 47
    Blackmon is rated first on nearly every wide receiver draft list, but check out his multitude of negatives. He ranked seventh in YPA, eighth in VYPA and dead last in SVYPA of this group. He is in the middle of the pack in height and weight (sixth in both categories), and his 40-yard dash time ranked fourth.
    Blackmon's 2011 totals were much worse than his 2010 totals, and the rest of the Oklahoma State pass-catchers had numbers that were roughly equal to Blackmon's this past year. He was kept in check when covered by Texas Longhorns star cornerback Carrington Byndom this past season and, as good as Byndom is, the NFL will give Blackmon that caliber of competition in nearly every game.

    6 (tie). Michael Floyd
    Birth date: Nov. 27, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-3, 220
    40-yard dash: 4.47
    YPA: 7.3 (136 targets)
    SYPA: 7.1 (87 targets)
    VYPA: 7.8 (49 targets)
    SVYPA: 9.6 (30 targets)
    Ranking points: 47
    Floyd, in many ways, had by far the most disappointing set of numbers in this entire analysis. He ranked dead last in YPA and VYPA and was next to last in SVYPA. The only saving graces for him were his showings in height (ranked second) and weight (ranked first). When his incredibly low on-field production levels are added to the multiple off-field issues he had in his Notre Dame career, it means he brings a ton of risk to whatever team ends up drafting him.

    6 (tie). Marvin McNutt
    Birth date: July 4, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-3, 216
    40-yard dash: 4.54
    YPA: 9.5 (99 targets)
    SYPA: 6.3 (55 targets)
    VYPA: 13.5 (44 targets)
    SVYPA: 9.8 (16 targets)
    Ranking points: 47
    The quandary in analyzing McNutt is that there really wasn't an area he excelled in. His best ranking in the YPA totals was fifth and his rankings got worse the further downfield the passes were thrown (seventh in VYPA, eighth in SVYPA). He has favorable height and weight (second in both categories), but he ranked seventh in the 40-yard dash and is the oldest wideout in this comparison.

    9. Alshon Jeffery
    Birth date: Feb. 14, 1990 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-3, 216
    40-yard dash: 4.51
    YPA: 7.9 (69 targets)
    SYPA: 5.6 (29 targets)
    VYPA: 9.5 (40 targets)
    SVYPA: 12.6 (23 targets)
    Ranking points: 48
    Jeffery's backers might point out that his low rankings in the YPA totals (ninth in three categories) were a direct result of the quarterbacking woes that beset the South Carolina offense this past season.
    The problem in taking that tack is that the Gamecocks' four leading underclassmen pass-catchers last season tallied a composite 9.8 YPA that was nearly two yards higher than Jeffery's. South Carolina's field generals certainly didn't help Jeffery, but if he was truly an elite receiver he would have posted better totals.

    10. Joe Adams
    Birth date: Nov. 22, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 5-11, 179
    40-yard dash: 4.55
    YPA: 8.5 (52 targets)
    SYPA: 5.7 (35 targets)
    VYPA: 14.2 (17 targets)
    SVYPA: 21.1 (7 targets)
    Ranking points: 59
    Adams' No. 1 ranking in SVYPA is more than offset by his subpar performance in overall YPA (ranked eighth), SYPA (eighth), height (ninth), weight (10th), 40-yard dash time (ninth) and age (ninth).
    On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

    “I have not lost faith in God. I have moments of anger and protest. Sometimes I've been closer to him for that reason.” - Elie Wiesel

    I don't wanna hear how it won't work that just means the whole earth hasn't done their homework. - The Carpenter

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Too hard to keep track


    original. i always like joyner's opinion.

    can someone post the rest?
    Proud member of the "on the field in '88" Club

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2007


    on potential Hill is going to take a while to develop whereas Floyd n Blackmon will translate much quicker

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Atlanta, GA


    The Bills already have a Hill on the roster that they were hoping would pan out. He's coming back from yet another season where he didn't get to play at all.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2002


    This is what happens when nerds start watching football...

    F'ing Joyner and his metrics...

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2006


    I'll pass on ND players!
    Hopelessly devastated Bills fan.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2004


    Can it be posted for the majority of us that don't have Insider?
    4-15-BUF 34

    (4:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 11-D.Sanzenbacher to BUF 11 for 23 yards (35-J.Leonhard). Caught in coverage at BUF 15.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2009


    I think I'll still take Blackmon or Floyd despite their "multitudes of negatives and disappointing sets of numbers" over those other five. Give me a break...

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2008


    I'm in the minority that thinks Hill will be the best WR of this class, this is far from validation but it's interesting.

    Kendall Wright's stats really shine but are dragged down by his "measurables"

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2009


    Anyone who has Blackmon and Floyd tied for 6th best WR in dumb as ****z.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2009


    I stop taking Joyner seriously after he rated Losman a top 10 QB. He's the perfect example of why the stats don't tell the whole story and yes the stats do lie

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Dec 2008


    These matrics mean absolutely nothing unless he proves that it has produced valid results across a decent percentage of previous draft classes.

    Otherwise it is completely useless information and a complete waste of time.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2009


    blackmon 6th and people pay for this **** lmao.

    A man's got to BILLieve in something. I BILLieve I'll have another drink.
    -- W.C. Fields

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jul 2004


    Jerry Rice and Andre Reed would have not even made this list based on height, 40 time, etc...How did those guys turn out? Darius Heyward Bay is a freak of nature on paper but it has taken him a long time to become decent...I happen to like Stephen Hill ALOT but I am still not sure that he will come close to living up to the last good receiver that was taken out Georgia Tech...Calvin something?

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Charleston SC


    The only issue with this is not all offenses are created equal, neither is all competition. It's an interesting take on grading the Wide Receivers, but if you break down the numbers oh hill specifically, all his production comes down the field. HE gets nothing in the short game, in fact on his 12 receptions for short yards per attempt, he averages 4 yards... so he has no elusiveness to his game once he catches the ball in traffic. So he is a one trick pony, and unless your Randy Moss, this doesn't work out for you very much.

    I also think it's hard to compare a guy who caught 38 passes in the year to players who cought more than double him, which is virtually everyone else on the list.

    It's weird, but of all the players numbers, the guy I like the most here is Kendall Wright... his reflect what you would think they should look like... i wonder where he would have ranked if he had run a 4.4 forty.
    Mock Draft:
    1) OT - Cordy Glenn - Georgia
    2) OLB - Lavonte David - Nebraska
    3) WR - AJ Jenkins - Illinios or Chris Givens - Wake Forrest
    4) CB - Josh Norman - Costal Carolina
    4) QB - BJ Coleman - Tennessee-Chattanooga
    5) DE - Jake Bequette - Arkansas
    5) C - Mike Brewster - Ohio State
    6) WR - Junior Hemmingway - Michigan
    7) TE - Kevin Kroger - Michigan
    7) CB - Ryan Steed - Furman

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Buffalo, NY


    Quote Originally Posted by Da Bills View Post
    Anyone who has Blackmon and Floyd tied for 6th best WR in dumb as ****z.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Indianapolis, IN


    Quote Originally Posted by shaunta53 View Post
    This is what happens when nerds start watching football...

    F'ing Joyner and his metrics...
    Quoted for truth!!!!! Joyner is the worst guy ever
    Quote Originally Posted by Bunnerjk View Post
    Why are you that mad about a jersey tucking?
    “As hard as it is for me to actually say this, I have to say that I am a fan of The Ohio State University,” Tim Tebow
    "Those are not at all to be tolerated who deny the being of God." John Locke

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2008


    watch out for freshmen missouri wr jimmie hunt. he avg 54 yards and a td per catch last season (with one catch).

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Queens NYC


    rankings such as these are the reason why guys like joyner and kenpom are complete hacks.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Queens NYC


    i think bases on these criteria usain bolt is the #1 wr in this years class.

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