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Thread: playoffs possible but still improbable

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    Default Playoffs possible but still improbable

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    Originally posted this as a response to the "Will the Bills makle the Playoffs?" Thread/Poll started earlier, but considering the fact that 85% of responses said "YES", and that we already have a thread started since suggesting that the bills will win the AFC East I figured Id start my own thread for those of us who may prefer to be a little more realistic (deleted the response so the post isnt up twice on the board).

    As a whole Bills fans are being a little biased here arent we? 85% saying yes to whether or not the bills will make the playoffs? Has a nice offseason really turned us into THAT fan base? I certainly Like our chances better than just about any other year in recent memory (post Bledsoe), but lets be realistic here.

    Im very excited for this upcomming year and Im not trying to be negative as I love the direction, just feel that unfortunately the math does not add up.

    The Bills are not beating out the Pats for the division (obviously anything can happen but realistically this isnt happening) which means your fighting for 1 of 2 Wild Card spots.

    The AFC North was a 3 Playoff division a year ago and it seems difficult to imagine the Ravens or Steelers do not take 1 of these WC spots. You may not have to look outside of the North for the 2nd either as Cinci was a playoff team with a rookie QB and top WR, and did a nice job in the draft once again addressing needs and getting great value.

    I hate The Jets about as much as any franchise in pro sports (probably 2nd to N.E.), and can see why some would suggest that they didnt have a GREAT offseason, but going into the season just assuming that we will be better than a team that has owned us in recent seasons is kind of ignorant. Being under the radar might be exactly what this team needs. And I hate Tebow as much as the next guy but its like we are all simply banking on the fact that some potential QB turmoil will hurt the team, and no one is considering the fact that he could either A.) be a great addition to the team, helping them punch in TD's in the redzone and running the wildcat with Sporano, or B.) actually be a better starting QB Than The Dirty Sanchez. Coples was a nice value pick at a spot of need, they got The WR everyone wanted the Bills to get in The 2nd, and I think people are dismissing the possibility that The Jets very well could end up being a better team this year than last. If I had to guess now Id have The Jets missing the playoffs, but you have to at least consider them a strong contender for what Im thinking will be the last playoff spot. Lets maybe try and beat these guys 1 time before we go assuming that we will be better than them.

    The The West was a pretty bad division last year in terms of having any great teams, but all 4 teams were decent, and a nice step up away from being a playoff team. Denver has to be the favorite going in, and I am personally not banking on the Chargers having another poor year with all of that talent. Oakland and KC were both similarly mediocre to Buff last season, and both have reason to believe they could be improved and make that next step into the postseason (Charles, Berry back for full season in KC, nice addition of Hillis.....full season for Palmer with camp in Oakland, and a potentially healthy backfield at least entering the season). Now I dont think either KC or Oakland is necessarily better than Buffalo, just saying their fans are probably having similar discussions and think they have a shot to compete for that last spot. The Chargers I still would have to have ahead in the pecking order over The Bills. Dont see Rivers having that poor of a season again, and I think they are a legit contender for the last WC (assuming they dont beat Denver for the division).

    The South is bad, and Houston should cruise. Jags and Indi probably will stink, but Id toss Tenn in a similar category as Oakland or KC, as a team with an outside shot. CJ with a full training camp, Britt back and healthy, 2nd yr QB with full camp getting reps with the 1s. dont count them out. They werent bad last year.

    In Summary I think your going to see NE Pitt Denver and Houston claim division titles, and I think Bmore (or Pitt if Bmore takes the north) is a pretty likely WC squad.

    That to me leaves 7 teams who at this way too early juncture who all have reason to think they could be that last team. If I had to rank them in order of most to least likely to take that last WildCard Id say 1.)San Diego, 2.)Cinci, 3.)Jets, 4.) Buffalo, 5.) KC, 6.) Tenn, 7.) Oakland

    I think the Bills def have a shot but 85% saying yes(obv this could change over time Id like to think it will even out) is a little out of hand. Could 1 of the teams I suggested will win a division or take a WC spot slip up and not make it? Sure, but you can just as easily suggest bottom feeder squads like cleveland or Miami could surprise and come out of nowhere.
    Last edited by Bills_and_Cuse; 05-08-2012 at 11:47 AM.

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    Good analysis.....I think some teams struggle this year though that dont typically do, you cant be good every year, I see pittsburgh as being one of those teams that might not have a bad year but, might be in the 9-7 range, I think andy dalton comes back to earth this year and with a tougher schedule they go .500, I think one of the things the bills have going for them is our last 6 or 7 games should(at this point mind you) be extremely winnable, if we could somehow get to 5-4 going into that stretch, i will feel confident about our chances down the stretch against some weaker(again at this point of the year so far, that could change when games start) teams. We may not make it, and that would suck, but we should atleast be in the hunt to the final week this year....

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    I don't think you can just assume Baltimore. And I certainly don't understand why you have a perennially underachieving San Diego team or a Cincy team that beat no playoff teams last year ahead of us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by billsfan8282 View Post
    I certainly don't understand why you have a underachieving San Diego team or a Cincy team that beat no playoff teams last year ahead of us.
    when was the last time the perennially underachieving chargers finished behind buffalo? Cincy beat no playoff team last year ok...but they beat the bills, and made the playoffs.

    double standard. fans of other teams certainly wouldnt understand how 85% of people could suggest that a team with 10wins and what 2 division wins(?) in the last 2 seasons will make the playoffs.

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    Saying you cant just assume baltimore is no differentthan saying you cant just assume we will be better than Miami.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bills_and_Cuse View Post
    Originally posted this as a response to the "Will the Bills makle the Playoffs?" Thread/Poll started earlier, but considering the fact that 85% of responses said "YES", and that we already have a thread started since suggesting that the bills will win the AFC East I figured Id start my own thread for those of us who may prefer to be a little more realistic (deleted the response so the post isnt up twice on the board).

    As a whole Bills fans are being a little biased here arent we? 85% saying yes to whether or not the bills will make the playoffs? Has a nice offseason really turned us into THAT fan base? I certainly Like our chances better than just about any other year in recent memory (post Bledsoe), but lets be realistic here.

    Im very excited for this upcomming year and Im not trying to be negative as I love the direction, just feel that unfortunately the math does not add up.

    The Bills are not beating out the Pats for the division (obviously anything can happen but realistically this isnt happening) which means your fighting for 1 of 2 Wild Card spots.

    The AFC North was a 3 Playoff division a year ago and it seems difficult to imagine the Ravens or Steelers do not take 1 of these WC spots. You may not have to look outside of the North for the 2nd either as Cinci was a playoff team with a rookie QB and top WR, and did a nice job in the draft once again addressing needs and getting great value.

    I hate The Jets about as much as any franchise in pro sports (probably 2nd to N.E.), and can see why some would suggest that they didnt have a GREAT offseason, but going into the season just assuming that we will be better than a team that has owned us in recent seasons is kind of ignorant. Being under the radar might be exactly what this team needs. And I hate Tebow as much as the next guy but its like we are all simply banking on the fact that some potential QB turmoil will hurt the team, and no one is considering the fact that he could either A.) be a great addition to the team, helping them punch in TD's in the redzone and running the wildcat with Sporano, or B.) actually be a better starting QB Than The Dirty Sanchez. Coples was a nice value pick at a spot of need, they got The WR everyone wanted the Bills to get in The 2nd, and I think people are dismissing the possibility that The Jets very well could end up being a better team this year than last. If I had to guess now Id have The Jets missing the playoffs, but you have to at least consider them a strong contender for what Im thinking will be the last playoff spot. Lets maybe try and beat these guys 1 time before we go assuming that we will be better than them.

    The The West was a pretty bad division last year in terms of having any great teams, but all 4 teams were decent, and a nice step up away from being a playoff team. Denver has to be the favorite going in, and I am personally not banking on the Chargers having another poor year with all of that talent. Oakland and KC were both similarly mediocre to Buff last season, and both have reason to believe they could be improved and make that next step into the postseason (Charles, Berry back for full season in KC, nice addition of Hillis.....full season for Palmer with camp in Oakland, and a potentially healthy backfield at least entering the season). Now I dont think either KC or Oakland is necessarily better than Buffalo, just saying their fans are probably having similar discussions and think they have a shot to compete for that last spot. The Chargers I still would have to have ahead in the pecking order over The Bills. Dont see Rivers having that poor of a season again, and I think they are a legit contender for the last WC (assuming they dont beat Denver for the division).

    The South is bad, and Houston should cruise. Jags and Indi probably will stink, but Id toss Tenn in a similar category as Oakland or KC, as a team with an outside shot. CJ with a full training camp, Britt back and healthy, 2nd yr QB with full camp getting reps with the 1s. dont count them out. They werent bad last year.

    In Summary I think your going to see NE Pitt Denver and Houston claim division titles, and I think Bmore (or Pitt if Bmore takes the north) is a pretty likely WC squad.

    That to me leaves 7 teams who at this way too early juncture who all have reason to think they could be that last team. If I had to rank them in order of most to least likely to take that last WildCard Id say 1.)San Diego, 2.)Cinci, 3.)Jets, 4.) Buffalo, 5.) KC, 6.) Tenn, 7.) Oakland

    I think the Bills def have a shot but 85% saying yes(obv this could change over time Id like to think it will even out) is a little out of hand. Could 1 of the teams I suggested will win a division or take a WC spot slip up and not make it? Sure, but you can just as easily suggest bottom feeder squads like cleveland or Miami could surprise and come out of nowhere.
    The Bills couls miss the playoffs and go 3-13, or they could win the division and shock the world ad 13-3. That'd why the play tha games man.

    As fans it is allowed for us to get excited. This has been a fantastic offseason, and there is nothing but promise and hope from this team. I for 1 think we will make it. Is there a chance we dont? Of course, but for the first time in the better half of the decade, I think the Bills really are in the right place for a push.... Personnel, coaches, and schedule are all working in our favor, and the Bills going under the radar I think helps us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bills_and_Cuse View Post
    when was the last time the perennially underachieving chargers finished behind buffalo? Cincy beat no playoff team last year ok...but they beat the bills, and made the playoffs.

    double standard. fans of other teams certainly wouldnt understand how 85% of people could suggest that a team with 10wins and what 2 division wins(?) in the last 2 seasons will make the playoffs.
    I seem to remember that a horrible ref call contributed to that loss.
    If the universe is infinite in all directions, then I am the center of the universe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Homer View Post
    I seem to remember that a horrible ref call contributed to that loss.
    and our other 9 losses?

    so tiring to keep hearing year after year how injuries or refs screwed us. Only bad teams allow themselves to be screwed by injuries or refs or one bad play. good teams don't focus on one play because one bad call doesn't blow an entire game for them.

    we are a bad team until we PROVE otherwise. My current prediction, until they prove otherwise is that they'll finish in roughly the same spot as last year. maybe slightly better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jellydonut25 View Post
    and our other 9 losses?

    so tiring to keep hearing year after year how injuries or refs screwed us. Only bad teams allow themselves to be screwed by injuries or refs or one bad play. good teams don't focus on one play because one bad call doesn't blow an entire game for them.

    we are a bad team until we PROVE otherwise. My current prediction, until they prove otherwise is that they'll finish in roughly the same spot as last year. maybe slightly better.
    They were all bad refing! HOW DARE YOU SAY OTHERWISE!!!!!!!!


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    10-6 and a 4-2 division record minimum to make the playoffs this year.

    Houston and cincy are both peaking franchises while the ravens/steelers/pats are all veteran teams that are hard to beat.

    Denver is a wild card, we have no idea how Manning will be.
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoormanRules8 View Post
    They were all bad refing! HOW DARE YOU SAY OTHERWISE!!!!!!!!

    right? i mean, HOLY CRAP ALREADY...the number 2 reason i want this team to succeed (#1 being i'm a fan and I just WANT them to finally win) is so that MAYBE the discussion around here will change a little bit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bills_and_Cuse View Post
    when was the last time the perennially underachieving chargers finished behind buffalo? Cincy beat no playoff team last year ok...but they beat the bills, and made the playoffs.

    double standard. fans of other teams certainly wouldnt understand how 85% of people could suggest that a team with 10wins and what 2 division wins(?) in the last 2 seasons will make the playoffs.
    we're better than we were last year. San Diego? Not so much. I am a realist, I haven't expected the Bills to make the playoffs in so many years I can't remember. But I think they will this season.

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    Outside of hockey, the NFL is the sport you can assume the least about. It looks pretty clear cut who should make the playoffs now but every team is one injury away from losing their playoff spot.

    If I had to pick, I'd agree with your division winners but I think both WC are very open. Baltimore lost Suggs for the year (which is going to be huge) and though Ray is a beast he had over 370 touches last year and is having contract issues. Those are their best players on offense and defense.

    Cinnci is a good team and I'm guessing their schedule is pretty easy, I think they will be hard to unseat.

    Besides that, SD is being run into the ground by their GM and coach, I feel like we are going to see a lot of Locker this year in Tennessee, Oakland is rebuilding, KC could play well but Cassell is bad.

    Really, if we can just split with the Jets I think our easier schedule will let us finish ahead of them. But yea, they may be our biggest competition.

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    85% saying yes does not mean there will be an 85% chance they will make the playoffs - or that they rank in the 85% percentile.

    It means that 85% of those that responded said they think the Bills will make the playoffs this year. You yourself said they have a shot. Did you vote "no" in the poll?

    I think they can make the playoffs this coming season - apparently, so do many other people. Saying that they are 85% likely to make the playoffs would be unrealistic - but that is not what is being measured.

    We aren't being unrealistic - we think it can happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeFergusonFan View Post
    85% saying yes does not mean there will be an 85% chance they will make the playoffs - or that they rank in the 85% percentile.

    It means that 85% of those that responded said they think the Bills will make the playoffs this year. You yourself said they have a shot. Did you vote "no" in the poll?

    I think they can make the playoffs this coming season - apparently, so do many other people. Saying that they are 85% likely to make the playoffs would be unrealistic - but that is not what is being measured.

    We aren't being unrealistic - we think it can happen.
    I did vote No. I said we have a chance because we do that dosent mean its likely as i pointed out in great detail If that Poll was conducted amongst random NFL Fans not Bills fans, its be much bloser to 85% saying no.

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    AFC teams that legimately DON'T frighten me in the least little bit as a Bills fan as potential playoff competition:
    Kansas City
    Indianapolis
    Jacksonville
    Miami
    Cleveland

    That's it. And Kansas City only because who knows what their RB situation is going to be like?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bills_and_Cuse View Post
    I did vote No. I said we have a chance because we do that dosent mean its likely as i pointed out in great detail If that Poll was conducted amongst random NFL Fans not Bills fans, its be much bloser to 85% saying no.
    That's because the only thing other NFL fans from around the country know about the Bills is that they have been losers for a long, long time - and it is going to take a long, long time before they believe differently.

    Those that voted here - granted, there probably is a portion of homerism - but many of the voters have seen, and can tell the significant change that has been taking place here - and it's not just personel, its a cultural change in the locker room and coaching staff - and a schedule that looks very winable at the end.

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    Quote Originally Posted by billsfan8282 View Post
    we're better than we were last year. San Diego? Not so much. I am a realist, I haven't expected the Bills to make the playoffs in so many years I can't remember. But I think they will this season.
    Thats just an assumption. SD Dealt with injuries to matthews and gates all of last season and Phillip Rivers had the worst season of his career by far. They also got what could be the steal of the draft with Ingram at #18. you cannot simply assume they wont be better, nor can you assume the bills automatically will be. The Eagles thought they had a great offseason last year too.

    I think the Bills will be better and am thinking 9-7 is a possibility, but that may not even be enough with all the depth in the conf

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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeFergusonFan View Post
    That's because the only thing other NFL fans from around the country know about the Bills is that they have been losers for a long, long time - and it is going to take a long, long time before they believe differently.

    Those that voted here - granted, there probably is a portion of homerism - but many of the voters have seen, and can tell the significant change that has been taking place here - and it's not just personel, its a cultural change in the locker room and coaching staff - and a schedule that looks very winable at the end.
    I agree the sched is favorable but outside of 2 games its the same for the entire afc east. In those 2 games the bills have a nice advantage as far as cleve but who knows if getting KC will be a favorable draw as opposed to oakland or sandiego.

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