#20 - Will the Bills avg. more than 24 points per game?

[BillsModerator]

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[BlokesAndHoes]

In an offseason where the additions on the defensive side of the ball have largely grabbed the headlines, Buffalo’s offense has gone about their business. They kept weapons like Scott Chandler and Stevie Johnson in the fold and also retained three offensive linemen by virtue of new contracts. The question is can the Bills offense take another step forward in their point production to turn more tightly-fought games into victories?

It’s not the lone definitive stat in determining what makes a playoff caliber team, but when nine of the 12 playoff clubs from 2011 are also among the top 12 scoring teams in football points per game counts for something.

“Statistics lie sometimes and there are a lot of things that go into being a successful offense, but that’s something we look at,” said Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Coming off a season in 2010 in which Fitzpatrick had to take the reins from Trent Edwards in Week 3 and help resurrect an offense that was seemingly dormant in a lot of areas was no easy task. By the end of Chan Gailey’s first campaign as head coach of the Bills the club began to show some promise as an offense. Still, Buffalo was saddled with a ranking of 28th in points per game scoring less than 18 per contest (17.7).

The improvements were more than noticeable the following year. Despite the absence of an offseason with OTA and minicamp practices the Bills improved their point production by almost a touchdown averaging 5.6 more points per game (23.3) to rank 14th in 2011.

Couple that with a normal offseason of OTA and minicamp practice sessions and the Bills offense feels good about taking another step when it comes to putting points on the board.

“The spring workouts have been huge for us,” said Fitzpatrick. “To build on what we’ve done the last two years. To try some new stuff out and add some new wrinkles to our offense, but really to establish that chemistry with the guys out on the field is the big thing.”

Perhaps Buffalo’s biggest benefit on offense is almost all of the same pieces are in place from a year ago. The Bills top seven receivers from 2011 are all back in the fold including Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. The left tackle position figures to be the only spot that would have a new starter from last season.

The players believe continuity can go a long way in making them a more productive unit, especially with all of them experiencing the second half slide of a season ago.

“We want consistency,” said Jackson. “We got out to a great start last year, but now it’s just about maintaining that through the whole season. That’s the number one goal of ours.”

As much carry over as the offense has had from last season in terms of personnel they will make some subtle but positive changes with respect to the scheme.

“Every year you have to,” Jackson said of making schematic changes. “You can’t stay stagnant or defenses will pick up on what you’re doing. We make tweaks every day. We’ll come in and run a play one way and come out the next day and run it a completely different way. You’re not just training your body you’re training your mind as to how you’re going to make game plan changes all 16 weeks. It’s what you’re trying to do at the same time.”

“There’s obviously a lot of similarities to what we’ve been doing since he’s (Chan Gailey) been here,” said Fitzpatrick. “In knowing me as a player and knowing our personnel and what we think we have, we’re tweaking some stuff just to fit guys better, which he does well, and really take advantage of everybody’s talent.”

In addition Buffalo’s defense figures to help aid the team’s point total by getting the ball back to them sooner, more often and with more favorable field position. That should translate into more snaps for the Bills attack than last year’s average of 62 plays per game. If the number of plays can increase by five per game, they’d be among the league leaders. In 2011 the teams that ran the most plays on offense (NO, NE, Atl, Det. and SD) collectively averaged 67 plays per game.

Naturally the defenses Buffalo's own offense will face are a factor as well, and the Bills will have seven games against top 10 defenses from a season ago. However, knowing Buffalo only needs less than a point more per game to post an average higher than 24 makes the goal very realistic in 2012.

Of course Bills head coach Chan Gailey never assesses a specific numerical goal to his team’s point production.

“There’s always one number that we’ve put up (as a goal), one more than our defense allows,” Gailey said. “That’s the number we strive for because you don’t know how things are going to go. If you start putting up goals like that then I think you take away from what you’re trying to get done as a football team. I want to talk about the team aspects of things, not just goals on offense, defense or special teams. You want to talk about the objective and the overall objective is to win.”

[hulk1914]

I can see the Bills averaging 28 pts per game. Our offense started off hot before injuries set in and with better depth our offense should last the season with the uncanny spread formations Gaileys uses

[steve2006]

The biggest irritant to me has been lack of consistency. This team can average scoring 30 points per game over 5 or 6 game stretches, but not anywhere near close to that over a full season, as opponents are able to adjust. An improved defense, taking some of the pressure off the offense combined with some variations from Chan's spread offense that include more of a vertical attack, might help.

[DIESEL-USMC]

If we get TDs, yes. Relying on field goals, no.

[NOVABilliever]

In addition Buffalo’s defense figures to help aid the team’s point total by getting the ball back to them sooner, more often and with more favorable field position. That should translate into more snaps for the Bills attack than last year’s average of 62 plays per game. If the number of plays can increase by five per game, they’d be among the league leaders. In 2011 the teams that ran the most plays on offense (NO, NE, Atl, Det. and SD) collectively averaged 67 plays per game.

Obviously this can mean two things: our offense's ppg was too low given how many snaps they got, and our defense was pathetic considering our margin of loss while having the ball for so long.

Regardless, I hope the offense can improve a little more. Having 67 snaps per game to be among the top teams will hopefully translate to as many ppg as those teams. If not, we won't be doing very well.

If we get TDs, yes. Relying on field goals, no.

This is one of the things I love about our latest team. We don't settle very often. It's refreshing to have an attacking nature. I don't care if the call is wrong some times. You always play to win. Everyone calls Belichick a genius but they'll never fault him for wanting to win, even when he single-handedly lost that Monday Night game to the Colts a few years back, because of aggressive play-calling.

[Hpc]

7 games against top 10 defenses. That gave me pause for a moment. Our D better gel for those games!

[Thurman#1]

I can see the Bills averaging 28 pts per game. Our offense started off hot before injuries set in and with better depth our offense should last the season with the uncanny spread formations Gaileys uses

28 PPG? Man, I think you're kidding yourself here.

Last year, that would put us as the 5th highest scoring team, nearly three points per game above the two teams that tied last year for 5th, the Panthers and Chargers at 25.4 PPG.

Hope you're right, but to bet on that you'd have to give me probably 40:1 odds. Even then I wouldn't bet much if anything as I just don't think it's going to happen. In the last 13 games of the year, the offense - not the whole team but the offense alone - averaged 17 PPG.

[Kogno]

28 PPG? Man, I think you're kidding yourself here.

Last year, that would put us as the 5th highest scoring team, nearly three points per game above the two teams that tied last year for 5th, the Panthers and Chargers at 25.4 PPG.

Hope you're right, but to bet on that you'd have to give me probably 40:1 odds. Even then I wouldn't bet much if anything as I just don't think it's going to happen. In the last 13 games of the year, the offense - not the whole team but the offense alone - averaged 17 PPG.

I agree Thurman, 28 points per game is a stretch, especially with a much improved Defense. The Buffalo Bills shouldn't have to score that many points to win football games.

It would be nice , but I'm going to say no to 24 points a game average.

[StopEmBarnett]

No, We will not even need 24 points to win. If our defense is as good as its made out to be then we should only need a few points to win. It would be nice to score more though

[Jm2009]

21 points, maybe. But that could be enough with a much improved defense.

[BlokesAndHoes]

We averaged 23.2 points per game last season. Better defense will mean we have more possession. I don't see why not.

[Kogno]

We averaged 23.2 points per game last season. Better defense will mean we have more possession. I don't see why not.

I suppose it depends on what direction HC Chan Gailey decides to go with it. Do the Bills run the football more, increase TOP to rest the Defense which may and probably will turn out to be Buffalo's strong point. Or does Gailey keep the pedal to the metal and stick to his aggressive play calling. Playing with a lead instead of playing catch up may change Chan Gaileys approach a tad. It might be possible now for the Bills to play a game of field position and take less chances.

My guess is Gailey will find a happy medium

[Slinkcsubacca]

Until I see our offensive line stay healthy, or the depth at the offensive line play well, I don't think we will average more then 17 points a game.

However, if our receivers and offensive lineman can prove themselves (Glenn/Hairston, Easley/Jones/Graham) I can see us being a pretty good team.

[Thurman#1]

We averaged 23.2 points per game last season. Better defense will mean we have more possession. I don't see why not.

Worth remembering though that the Bills did extremely well last year in scoring from the defense and the STs. We can't expect to do so well again.

The Bears led the league with an insane 10 TDs from other sources (2 punt returns, 1 KR return, 4 pick sixes and 3 fumble returns for a TD) and a safety on top of that. Three teams had seven TDs, but the Lions also had two safeties so they came in second with 53 points from other sources. Third were the Bills with seven TDs (1 punt return, 4 pick sixes and two fumbles returned for a TD) and one safety, 51 points, and the Pack was fourth with 49 points, having no safeties. The Ravens and Broncos had 5 TDs, but the Broncos had three safeties and the Ravens only one. Eight teams had four TDs.

The point being that our defense got really lucky and productive last year and it is very unlikely we will do that well again. Teams rarely do. The offense will have to score more just for the team to put up the same amount of points they did last year. Our defense and STs scored almost 14% of our points last year. We can't count on that to happen again. Except for the Bears (20%, wow!), no other team scored a lower percentage of our points by the offense.

[Dablitzkrieg]

I hope so. I am so excited to see what the rookie receiver brings to the table as well as a healthy Easley

[Billzfan51]

Depends on what Gailey's response to how D's play the Bills. If he continues to have no answer on how to free up WRs in the passing game then they will probably have a tough time scoring the 17.9 points per game they averaged over the last 9 games of last season. I fear that they believe the answer is TJ Graham and that they are putting all their eggs into that basket. They need to use stacks, motions, and picks to free up the WRs better. If they continue to get jammed at the line and get nobody free then Fitzpatrick will not be getting the ball out as fast and it will lead to a lot of the same type of offense that happened down the stretch.

I was annoyed with how little progress I saw out of the Bills offense during the stretch of last season. Where were the adjustments? Where did they react to how the D was mugging them at the line every play? Where was the offensive genius? 17.9 points per game during that stretch, but not all of it was offensive. As a matter of fact if you take away points that the D put on the scoreboard directly from those 9 games the O actually only scored 14.55 points per game. And yet there was no answer. You look at the bare numbers 40 pts scored during the win against the Broncos, yay, but 21 of those were from the D and ST.

So my answer is I don't think they do average 24 points per game...

[kravman2011]

No...

[steve2006]

Worth remembering though that the Bills did extremely well last year in scoring from the defense and the STs. We can't expect to do so well again.

The Bears led the league with an insane 10 TDs from other sources (2 punt returns, 1 KR return, 4 pick sixes and 3 fumble returns for a TD) and a safety on top of that. Three teams had seven TDs, but the Lions also had two safeties so they came in second with 53 points from other sources. Third were the Bills with seven TDs (1 punt return, 4 pick sixes and two fumbles returned for a TD) and one safety, 51 points, and the Pack was fourth with 49 points, having no safeties. The Ravens and Broncos had 5 TDs, but the Broncos had three safeties and the Ravens only one. Eight teams had four TDs.

The point being that our defense got really lucky and productive last year and it is very unlikely we will do that well again. Teams rarely do. The offense will have to score more just for the team to put up the same amount of points they did last year. Our defense and STs scored almost 14% of our points last year. We can't count on that to happen again. Except for the Bears (20%, wow!), no other team scored a lower percentage of our points by the offense.

Good points but in regards to the defense, I think a stronger and more consistent pass rush will reduce the dependency on luck and actually force opposing qbs to throw bad passes that get picked off as opposed to just hoping they might, like in the past. Physically attack the opposing QB unmercifully, and good things will happen IMO.

[silver]

Let's do the math:
Fitz: 35TD= 245pnts
Jackson: 15 TD =105pnts
Spiller: 6TD=43pnts
B. Smith: 2TD=14pnts
TJ Graham:2TD=14pnts
D.Jones:1TD=7pnts
Lindel:18FGs=54pnts
482pnts/16games= 30pnts per game.