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Thread: Problem with evaluating talent in the draft....

  1. #1
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    Default Problem with evaluating talent in the draft....

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    I think (and this may be obvious) but the problem with evaluating talent in the draft is that you are comparing the players to each other...you are comparing Tyler Wilson...Geno Smith...Matt Barkley...etc.

    The real question is, how would these players compare to the QB's in last year's draft class?

    Becuase we desperately need a "franchise qb" i hope this class of qb's in not weak!

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    Compared to Luck and RGII... this class is weak. Compared to Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers...? They both have ended up being pretty decent picks, but Rodgers almost got out of the first!

    It's harder to compare draft classes with one another than it is to compare them to each other!

    I would love nothing more than the Bills to be aggressive in getting a QB... and to this point, I have no problem trusting Buddy's ability to draft that guy. It's not like he hasn't been interested in the past two crops of top flight QBs. He knew that he couldn't do what Shanny did in Washington. Now, with fewer holes (even as bad as we look)... we are only missing a few pieces. The reason for our struggles is that they are some of the most vital pieces. QB can now be addressed and should be done in an aggressive manner.

    If it's me, I go QB then MLB or MLB then QB... whatever makes more sense for who is available!
    Hopelessly devastated Bills fan.

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    Well if you remember, RGIII shot up the boards as the year went on. Hopefully one of the QB's will establish themselves as the clear cut winner. Personally, at this point, I have a good gut feeling about Geno Smith and Tyler Wilson. Again, I hope someone steps up!

    Too bad we don't have a stellar QB draft class this year!

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    GENO is a solid QB... he has gone the opposite of RGIII, but from what I've seen he can make all the throws... has athletic ability and aspires to win and be successful. He is a student of the game and is probably the most "sure-fire" QB in the crop.

    But to me... again, I trust Buddy with the decision... it's not as if he has passed up franchise QBs over the past 3 years. And, though I disagree with the faith he has put in Fitz... he most likely had Chan in his ear, didn't use his best judgement and go with his gut. I like that he seems to have seen this flaw and is ready to get a franchise guy to be inserted into a team that, despite how bad they look, is on the verge of being really solid. We really don't need a lot on the field... IMO.
    Hopelessly devastated Bills fan.

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    I agree....I am sold on Buddy at this stage as well. I liked that he wouldve take Cam Newton if he fell to us...even though I am not a Cam Newton fan. Actually, I would've liked Russel Wilson or Andy Dalton the year before. But clearly Nix didnt think they were "franchise" guys and passed on them.

    We need to remember what Nix has said, "like it or not, the draft is a crap shoot...there's no guaranteeing what players will pan out"

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    What about Mike Glennon and EJ Manuel? Both are probably 2nd round QB's. Any opinions on them?
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    I think this QB draft class over all is deeper then most, it just makes it harder to evaluate. Luck was rated as one of the best QB prospects ever, repeat EVER. There are plenty of classes that were thought to be good that weren't, I think the best most recent one would go to Big Ben, Rivers, Manning, and Schaub. If you remember correctly Schaub wasn't highly rated, a lot of people thought Rivers would be no good because of his throwing motion, there was even questions on Manning saying what if he didn't have that name, and Big Ben was from the wrong Miami.

    I would wait until closer to the draft to draw final conclusions on this draft class.

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    Quote Originally Posted by saratogabillsfan View Post
    I think (and this may be obvious) but the problem with evaluating talent in the draft is that you are comparing the players to each other...you are comparing Tyler Wilson...Geno Smith...Matt Barkley...etc.

    The real question is, how would these players compare to the QB's in last year's draft class?

    Becuase we desperately need a "franchise qb" i hope this class of qb's in not weak!
    the problem is that you need good talent evaluators and we dont have any !

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    Quote Originally Posted by BUFF BANDIT View Post
    the problem is that you need good talent evaluators and we dont have any !
    Like it or not... our GM is a very good talent evaluator...

    This year, we may find a gem later in round 1 or early in round 2... it's far too early to know who will move up or who may fall... I trust Buddy to make the evaluation!
    Hopelessly devastated Bills fan.

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    I like Glennon in round 2 or 3 but do not like Manuel...i think Manuel still needs another year to develop.

    It would be great to get a couple of playmakers on defense and then get our guy in round 2.

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    Isn't it sad that we are talking about the draft and it's November....we are 5 months away from the draft!

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    Quote Originally Posted by cdub_bills_12 View Post
    Like it or not... our GM is a very good talent evaluator...

    This year, we may find a gem later in round 1 or early in round 2... it's far too early to know who will move up or who may fall... I trust Buddy to make the evaluation!


    Really? His 2010 draft class is basically just Spiller, and Carrington left in the NFL. Troupe was probably not going to be a 3rd rounder he drafted him high in the 2nd, and he is a IR bust. 2011, Darrius is turning into the Statepuff Marshmallow Man, Aarron Williams is bombing out at CB, Sheppard is about the worsts starting MLB in the NFL, and on and on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by saratogabillsfan View Post
    I agree....I am sold on Buddy at this stage as well. I liked that he wouldve take Cam Newton if he fell to us...even though I am not a Cam Newton fan. Actually, I would've liked Russel Wilson or Andy Dalton the year before. But clearly Nix didnt think they were "franchise" guys and passed on them.

    We need to remember what Nix has said, "like it or not, the draft is a crap shoot...there's no guaranteeing what players will pan out"
    Buddy Nix also wanted to rebuild the team, then add a QB. That was always the plan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lysander78 View Post
    Really? His 2010 draft class is basically just Spiller, and Carrington left in the NFL. Troupe was probably not going to be a 3rd rounder he drafted him high in the 2nd, and he is a IR bust. 2011, Darrius is turning into the Statepuff Marshmallow Man, Aarron Williams is bombing out at CB, Sheppard is about the worsts starting MLB in the NFL, and on and on.
    Most drafts there are only 2-3 guys who turn into anything.

    Our scheme also makes our guys look worse than they were, he drafted highly respected players from big time teams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheyCallMeAndy View Post
    Most drafts there are only 2-3 guys who turn into anything.

    Our scheme also makes our guys look worse than they were, he drafted highly respected players from big time teams.
    This... I have explained the drafts over and over in the past couple months... Buddy has improved his drafting every year...

    He has always made (what looks to be a solid 1st round pick)... the second he has gone a combo of need/BPA and then has added depth. His first draft was rough... but he keeps improving each year.

    People expect 4-5 contributors... 2-3 is great, 1-2 should be expected. The jury is out on most of his picks... This is Spiller's third season, at the end of last season he started to emerge... now he looks like a world-beater... Using just his timetable (as a running back), Dareus should start looking good in a week or two... Gilmore not until next year at this time... until then we can't judge drafts a year or even year and a half after. Believe the negativity around here and think he doesn't know what he is doing, but he has always been a part of winning teams and has contributed solid picks to those teams! I expect it to continue in Buffalo...
    Hopelessly devastated Bills fan.

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    The advantage Buffalo has this year is that with all the QB's taken in the top 10 the past two years those teams as well as those with franchise QB's are off the table in round 1. Oakland, KC, possibly Dallas, Philly, ARZ and TB are the only ones that will consider a QB in rounds 1 and 2 this year. Buffalo, Oak, and KC the only ones in round 1. What that means is the team has options. It is clear that MLB is a must in round 1 or 2. The team will have to weigh a QB, Wilson or Barkley, versus Manti Te'o. Te'o is easily the next Ray Lewis, hands down. He is that dominate. He is a plug in day 1 and no worries until he retires type of guy. Is a trade up into the late first a possiblity to grab that 4th or maybe even 3rd best QB a possibility, ABSOLUTELY.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cms2533 View Post
    The advantage Buffalo has this year is that with all the QB's taken in the top 10 the past two years those teams as well as those with franchise QB's are off the table in round 1. Oakland, KC, possibly Dallas, Philly, ARZ and TB are the only ones that will consider a QB in rounds 1 and 2 this year. Buffalo, Oak, and KC the only ones in round 1. What that means is the team has options. It is clear that MLB is a must in round 1 or 2. The team will have to weigh a QB, Wilson or Barkley, versus Manti Te'o. Te'o is easily the next Ray Lewis, hands down. He is that dominate. He is a plug in day 1 and no worries until he retires type of guy. Is a trade up into the late first a possiblity to grab that 4th or maybe even 3rd best QB a possibility, ABSOLUTELY.
    I think there are some LBs in the draft that could help us... I like Te'o alot... if Smith is gone when we pick, I would love to go Te'o... then trade back into the first for a Wilson, Dysert or whoever is there with a first round grade!!
    Hopelessly devastated Bills fan.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by saratogabillsfan View Post
    I think (and this may be obvious) but the problem with evaluating talent in the draft is that you are comparing the players to each other...you are comparing Tyler Wilson...Geno Smith...Matt Barkley...etc.

    The real question is, how would these players compare to the QB's in last year's draft class?

    Becuase we desperately need a "franchise qb" i hope this class of qb's in not weak!
    You make a good point. I was all in on "Suck for Luck" (for two years in a row since he could have come out last year).

    This year I don't see a huge benefit to be drafting 1 or 2. Matt Barkley and Geno Smith look okay, but not like Luck or RGIII.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BUFF BANDIT View Post
    the problem is that you need good talent evaluators and we dont have any !
    Definitely, just look at the Dareus pick, definitely didn't evaluate that tub of a **** correctly.

    cdbud is straight up delusional. Outside of Spiller Nix has evaluated like a chump, not including this current draft, too soon to tell. He passed on guys like Bowman, Lee, Gronk, Hernandez, Atkins, Dunlap, Torrey Smith, Randall Cobb, Kyle Rudolph, Justin Houstin and on and on for guys like Troup, Carrington, A.Williams, and Sheppard. Colossal **** ups by Nix.

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    2010 draft minus spiller was horrible. 2011 isn't looking so good, but I still have hope with Darius.

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