Here is what happened....

[Grundy208]

Just wanted to post this here also so everyone can get the behind the end zone look at the pass.

At about 1:18 into the video watch the view from the back of the end zone. If Graham made the cut in front of Devin he still would not have been where the ball was thrown. It would have been behind him and high. That is the best video evidence I have seen on it.

http://www.patriots.com/media-center...d95a6182<br />

Yea I know its the pats site but it has the best angle. Just watch the video and judge for yourself. I clearly see a ball that never would have made it to graham no matter which route he ran.

If the link is not working it is the "Patriots Today- Did the defense save the day"
Please watch it before you try to bash.

pic6.jpg

The link isn't working. Is this the angle you are looking at? To me, I wouldn't say it's conclusive that he wouldn't have caught it. It's hard to tell, and kind of an optical illusion. From the camera, it's around a 45 degree angle to the left. Where McCourty is catching the ball, the ball is coming at a 45 degree angle from the right. But for this thread, that wasn't the point. People who really want to blame Fitz for it will continue to do so. There is nothing anybody can do about it. People who really want to defend Fitz will continue to do so. To each group, they are right and there is no changing that.

In my breakdown, I said that if Graham crosses the safeties face, the play has potential. He could have dropped the ball, didn't he drop one earlier? He could have tipped it and it have been picked. He could have caught it and been down at the one, jumped up and done something stupid for a penalty. 10 sec run off. There are a lot of things. And yes, the throw could have been off target anyways.

I refuse to give a definite of what would have happened, because I just don't know. But to say that it was definitely off target isn't really fair, is it? The "realists" do exactly what the "homer"s do, just on the other end of the spectrum. In the end, everybody looks silly. A little objectivity never hurt anybody.

I'm done scolding you now.

[GMBNix]

No the angle was actually from the ground right behind Graham. Like I said it is what I saw so that is why I want other people to look at it. If you go on the site and look at the video the title is on my other post at 1:15+ you can see it. It is just a different perspective and a much better look at where the football is.

I never said definitely I said "it's what I saw"

[Grundy208]

No the angle was actually from the ground right behind Graham. Like I said it is what I saw so that is why I want other people to look at it.

Roger that. I'll keep trying, or try to find it.

[GMBNix]

I am just saying he took an extra what 3-4 steps to go behind devin and was still past the defender so if he cut in early like they said he was supposed to do he would have been even further away from where the defender caught the ball but in front of him. He is very fast guy and I think his route wouldn't have put him where the ball went. But that is my OPINION.

[wvbillsfan]

If graham crosses the guys face like he is suppose to then worse case scenario it's incomplete. This is a great write up with a great breakdown of the play. A nice changeup from some of the mindless pointless posts. Thanks a lot

[Scott7975]

Try this: http://www.patriots.com/media-center...e-7009d95a6182

[Grundy208]

pats.jpg

I can't tell.

pats22.jpg

Here's another. The ball is in the circle.

I really can't tell. I hadn't seen these angles though.

[GMBNix]

pats.jpg

I can't tell.

pats22.jpg

Here's another. The ball is in the circle.

I really can't tell. I hadn't seen these angles though.

At 1:20 Devin has the ball in his hands as Graham is trying to stop so he can run back the other way b.c he was already past him. You can see Graham trying to slow down and stop in the first picture. So since he had to take extra steps to go behind him he would have been further to the right if he had stepped in front of Devin since that would have taken away those extra couple of steps. Graham is very fast which is why he was where he was even with running the route deeper then he was supposed to.

[Grundy208]

At 1:20 Devin has the ball in his hands as Graham is trying to stop so he can run back the other way b.c he was already past him. You can see Graham trying to slow down and stop in the first picture.

In the first pic, the ball is just touching his hands. I was just putting the 2nd pic out there because I hadn't seen it.

[Grundy208]

If graham crosses the guys face like he is suppose to then worse case scenario it's incomplete. This is a great write up with a great breakdown of the play. A nice changeup from some of the mindless pointless posts. Thanks a lot

Thanks man, I appreciate it.

[GMBNix]

Well thanks for grabbing those pictures and looking at it. I just don't see it being a catch but whatever the game is over time for the Fins.

[Grundy208]

Yup. Completely agree. It is time for the Fins. Kind of a bummer that the All 22 for the previous week doesn't come out until the following Tuesday. By the time I can access it, the "controversial" plays have been beat to death and people have moved on anyways.

[Scott7975]

Yup. Completely agree. It is time for the Fins. Kind of a bummer that the All 22 for the previous week doesn't come out until the following Tuesday. By the time I can access it, the "controversial" plays have been beat to death and people have moved on anyways.

Post anyways. I dont have access and enjoy seeing those pictures.

[noah]

thanks for the time and effort you put into this thread! it has been said by any number of people, but i too (in real time) saw the pass going to t.j. and yelped "underneath is wide open". i have nfl gamepass as well, but after losses like this one i usually can't stomach going back and looking at it again... kudos.

[Otishawk]

Attachment 7742



I like the play, I like the decision, just hated the outcome. Hopefully this helps some members understand a little more of what happened. Continue calling for Fitz's head, with me, but not for this play or this game.

This is all based upon speculation not fact!

[The Wendigo]

First of all, great post. This is the kind of stuff we don't get anywhere near enough of around here: a chance for real analysis and football discussion. Thanks.

I think the All-22 gives fans a whole new way to appreciate and learn about the game, so it's awesome that you are sharing this with us. I disagree with your conclusion, but I love that we have a factual basis to argue. In any case, I'll remember that you have it and you will be my go-to-guy for All-22 questions. I would add rep, but you'll have to wait for it.

To the responses:

A lot of qbs make this throw. Two specific examples are an out pattern Rogers threw to jones and a play action that romo threw to dez Bryant. Both instances the wr didn't flatten the route and took it up the field. Both instances an easy interception occurred because the ball hit the db right in the numbers.

This is where Chan failed. Timing routes are a high risk play, as evidenced by the examples you brought up. Even with an elite QB with consistent ball placement, if one person makes a bad read or is out of position, the whole thing falls apart and can end disastrously. Why call something like that with the game on the line and a QB who is decidedly not elite and a well-earned reputation for spotty ball placement?

I think your illustrations are fine. Thanks for doing this. This goes to show that its not always Fitz fault. We do need another QB, yes, but only because Fitz cant play that way every game. If he could, then I think we would be fine. Alot of people will still blame Fitz for this but any smart person can see it wasnt on him. Spin it however you want "should have thrown to spiller there"....

A. That was not the play design
B. He was going for the win, nothing wrong with that as time was running out
C. You dont know the clock would run out or not. 25 seconds at that point. Anything can happen. Pats will hold people from getting up. The ball might not be placed quick enough. The line might not get set in time... and remember.... ANY offensive penalty there (like not being set on the snap false start) and the refs run the clock out by rule.
D. You guys always have a way to blame Fitz, no matter what he does. If he threw to CJ there and they dont stop the clock in time or CJ fumbles or whatever happens... you will just say that Graham was open but Captain Checkdown went the safe route. I understand the hate for Fitz, and I understand you bashing him when he plays like ***.... but for god sakes he played a **** good game and you still look for reasons to blame him and only him.

It really irritates me that you can take something like this and turn it into an insult to everyone who disagrees with you. I may or may not be a smart person, but I'm certainly no fool and I still say this was on Fitz.

1) QBs are not zombies, nor are they slaves to the playcall. Decision-making and critical thinking are a huge part of their responsibility and most have the authority to audible out of a play that they don't think is going to work or to simply go a different way when they see how the defense evolves post-snap. Saying "that was not the play design" and pretending that absolves Fitz of his responsibility to make good decisions with the ball is asinine.
2) There's nothing wrong with going for the win, but you still have to take responsibility for how you go about it. That Fitz is letting TJ take the brunt of the heat for what was still ultimately his decision is a load of crap. He might not be throwing him under the bus directly, but his thing about getting guys on the same page still leaves room for the interpretation that TJ blew it.
3+4) Sure, anything can happen, but you still have to play the percentages. A timing route to an unproven rookie who hasn't even practiced the pattern since TC or a checkdown to your superstar playmaker who is wide open? 28 seconds is a LONG time, it is highly doubtful that the Pats* could have made any play that didn't result in a TD last long enough to run it out. You've got no room to assume about what other people would have said. If Fitz had gone to CJ and we still lost somehow, I would have been taking the position that so many others are right now: that Fitz played a good game and the loss wasn't on him. As it happened, it is on him because he threw the ball away with a chance to win it. Period.

At 1:20 Devin has the ball in his hands as Graham is trying to stop so he can run back the other way b.c he was already past him. You can see Graham trying to slow down and stop in the first picture. So since he had to take extra steps to go behind him he would have been further to the right if he had stepped in front of Devin since that would have taken away those extra couple of steps. Graham is very fast which is why he was where he was even with running the route deeper then he was supposed to.

We'll never know if TJ would have been able to catch the ball had he run the right route. There are just too many variables in a situation like that.

The bottom line is this: though they allowed 37 points, the defense did all we can ask them to do in any game - they made the stop that we needed. Brady had a chance to put the game away and our defense stepped up and forced him to settle for 3. Our offense had the ball with plenty of time and the chance to win it, instead our coach made a bad call and our QB followed that with a bad decision that gave the game away. The defense seems to be improving, but this is just more of the same from Fitz and Gailey. You can surely spread the blame around as there is plenty of it, but when you ignore the common threads running through this team's continued failures, you miss the point.

[HiddenInLight]

First of all, great post. This is the kind of stuff we don't get anywhere near enough of around here: a chance for real analysis and football discussion. Thanks.

I think the All-22 gives fans a whole new way to appreciate and learn about the game, so it's awesome that you are sharing this with us. I disagree with your conclusion, but I love that we have a factual basis to argue. In any case, I'll remember that you have it and you will be my go-to-guy for All-22 questions. I would add rep, but you'll have to wait for it.

To the responses:

This is where Chan failed. Timing routes are a high risk play, as evidenced by the examples you brought up. Even with an elite QB with consistent ball placement, if one person makes a bad read or is out of position, the whole thing falls apart and can end disastrously. Why call something like that with the game on the line and a QB who is decidedly not elite and a well-earned reputation for spotty ball placement?

It really irritates me that you can take something like this and turn it into an insult to everyone who disagrees with you. I may or may not be a smart person, but I'm certainly no fool and I still say this was on Fitz.

1) QBs are not zombies, nor are they slaves to the playcall. Decision-making and critical thinking are a huge part of their responsibility and most have the authority to audible out of a play that they don't think is going to work or to simply go a different way when they see how the defense evolves post-snap. Saying "that was not the play design" and pretending that absolves Fitz of his responsibility to make good decisions with the ball is asinine.
2) There's nothing wrong with going for the win, but you still have to take responsibility for how you go about it. That Fitz is letting TJ take the brunt of the heat for what was still ultimately his decision is a load of crap. He might not be throwing him under the bus directly, but his thing about getting guys on the same page still leaves room for the interpretation that TJ blew it.
3+4) Sure, anything can happen, but you still have to play the percentages. A timing route to an unproven rookie who hasn't even practiced the pattern since TC or a checkdown to your superstar playmaker who is wide open? 28 seconds is a LONG time, it is highly doubtful that the Pats* could have made any play that didn't result in a TD last long enough to run it out. You've got no room to assume about what other people would have said. If Fitz had gone to CJ and we still lost somehow, I would have been taking the position that so many others are right now: that Fitz played a good game and the loss wasn't on him. As it happened, it is on him because he threw the ball away with a chance to win it. Period.


We'll never know if TJ would have been able to catch the ball had he run the right route. There are just too many variables in a situation like that.

The bottom line is this: though they allowed 37 points, the defense did all we can ask them to do in any game - they made the stop that we needed. Brady had a chance to put the game away and our defense stepped up and forced him to settle for 3. Our offense had the ball with plenty of time and the chance to win it, instead our coach made a bad call and our QB followed that with a bad decision that gave the game away. The defense seems to be improving, but this is just more of the same from Fitz and Gailey. You can surely spread the blame around as there is plenty of it, but when you ignore the common threads running through this team's continued failures, you miss the point.

No offense, but you don't seem to understand how that type of play works. That is the type of play that was designed to go to graham in the first place. Its not a madden type play call where the coach just calls the routes and the qb picks an open reciever. Now, arguing that it was a bad playcall is completely understandable. The play was about timing and positioning. When one of those two things goes wrong there is a big problem.

Now, let's assume for a moment that Graham makes the correct cut and is in position when the ball gets there. Graham is now effectively between the defender and the ball moving away fro@m him at close to top speed. That ball does not get picked off. If the positioning is correct it is a very safe throw. No other defenders are in position to make a play, so it ends up either being a TD or an incomplete pass, resulting in time for another play due to the clock stopping. If the ball goes to CJ and he doesn't get those 5 yards the game is over. All in all, I find myself agreeing with the playcall. When a coach calls a play he expects each player to at least be where they are supposed to be. In this case Graham was not. He admitted to his mistake and is taking responsibility for it. I'm sorry but this play simply wasn't on Fitz this time. Try and ignore your blind hatred for a minute and look objectively at what happened. Its a REAL stretch to even attempt to blame fitz on this one. He is about as much to blame as Eric Wood on this play.



As for the OP, great post. I really like your analysis. Especially the piece by piece breakdown. Also note that Joe B did the same breakdown on the WGR website and came to the same conclusion as you. That was some really good play analysis.

[notagoodname]

how can people keep saying SJ and spiller where open, when it is clear that their defenders went to where the ball was being thrown.

no wonder people keep saying WR are open all day....

[nutts252]

No offense, but you don't seem to understand how that type of play works. That is the type of play that was designed to go to graham in the first place. Its not a madden type play call where the coach just calls the routes and the qb picks an open reciever. Now, arguing that it was a bad playcall is completely understandable. The play was about timing and positioning. When one of those two things goes wrong there is a big problem.

Now, let's assume for a moment that Graham makes the correct cut and is in position when the ball gets there. Graham is now effectively between the defender and the ball moving away fro@m him at close to top speed. That ball does not get picked off. If the positioning is correct it is a very safe throw. No other defenders are in position to make a play, so it ends up either being a TD or an incomplete pass, resulting in time for another play due to the clock stopping. If the ball goes to CJ and he doesn't get those 5 yards the game is over. All in all, I find myself agreeing with the playcall. When a coach calls a play he expects each player to at least be where they are supposed to be. In this case Graham was not. He admitted to his mistake and is taking responsibility for it. I'm sorry but this play simply wasn't on Fitz this time. Try and ignore your blind hatred for a minute and look objectively at what happened. Its a REAL stretch to even attempt to blame fitz on this one. He is about as much to blame as Eric Wood on this play.



As for the OP, great post. I really like your analysis. Especially the piece by piece breakdown. Also note that Joe B did the same breakdown on the WGR website and came to the same conclusion as you. That was some really good play analysis.

The problem with this is is that if you want to blame it on TJ, fine go ahead. But why is this "the chosen" play when the player a)never practiced this play b)is a rookie ?

Shouldn't you always look to your proven veterans(you know the guys making the big bucks) on game deciding plays ?

It's another case of the coach out thinking himself instead of out thinking the opposition.

[xboomer]

Here is what really happened...TJ was asked to run a route he has NEVER practiced or run before. This is all Gailey's fault. I was blaming Fitz but after reading several articles on why Fitz threw it where he did I no longer do.