Attachment 7742
Here are the routes that each player will be running. CJ and Stevie are up top, Chandler, Jones, and TJ are at the bottom.
Attachment 7745
The Pats are in a dime with Mayo as the Mike. Ninkovich is going to drop as well to make 8 dropping back and 3 rushing. Stevie and CJ are up top, Chandler, Jones, and TJ are at the bottom.
Attachment 7746
When the ball is snapped, Fitz looks to his right. He is setting this up. He wants Mayo to start dropping that way. He is trying to get him confused. Fitz is setting Mayo up for his next, longer look left. He knows he is going to TJ. Now back to the top of the formation, CJ comes off the ball slowly. This is because of Stevie. Stevie is going to his left to get to the sideline. It is a type of rub route. There is no intention of the ball being thrown his way. This is setting more up. (I don't care what Chan says, the Graham is the guy on this play, with CJ being a decoy/checkdown.)
Attachment 7743
Fitz is throwing the ball now. There is a safety over the top of Stevie. He has a corner running under him. It's a deep ball down the sideline (to Fitz's left actually, which was his weaker side until this year, where each sideline is his weak side). It would have to be a rocket, and there is no room for error on this throw. It's got to be right to Johnson, or it's picked. Over throw or under throw, they are on it. CJ is going to be open, yes. Ninkovich is racing to the middle of the field. Perhaps he recognizes this play from film study????? He may make a tackle, he may not. Dunno.
As I said before, CJ's route has purpose. It is to suck in the Mike. That would be fantastic against a cover 4. But this is a Tampa 2, and Mayo has no idea or responsibility for the short middle. Ninkovich in the wrong spot or was too slow, maybe? Mayo was floating with each direction that Fitz looked. He still hasn't recovered from Fitz looking left in this pic. Fitz just went back right and fired.
Now, QB's are taught to throw the ball at the defender in a play like this. No duress. Anticipating the break. The elite QBs make this throw, as well. He has done the right thing.
Attachment 7744
The black circle indicates about where the ball is relative to the plane it was thrown. The star indicates where TJ should have made his break. Mayo took his first step to his left in this picture. McCourty never even steps forward. All defenders are taught to never wait for the ball. If you wait, a receiver will be coming in front of you to catch it.
With the correct read by TJ, this play had a lot of potential.
And FYI, I am not a Fitz homer. I want a new QB badly. Every once in a while, he pulls a great game out of his ***, and this was one of those games. As far as putting TJ in that position, rather than having Jones, Chandler, or SJ, I don't know. That's on Chan. But Fitz trusts everybody that is on the field. It's the type of guy he is. He trusted that TJ knew how to read that. There just isn't enough room behind the safety. Stevie and CJ up top together wasn't the greatest idea, IMO. Your 2 best weapons on the field are right next to each other. Split them up, and maybe the safeties spread further.
I like the play, I like the decision, just hated the outcome. Hopefully this helps some members understand a little more of what happened. Continue calling for Fitz's head, with me, but not for this play or this game.