So what if Cincy,Pitt, and Buff end at 9-7

[vegasloveforthebills]

2.4% that's all you need to know.

That's the odds that the Bills make the playoffs. A single loss and that number changes to 0%

Agreed, but a win a Dallas, SD or Tenn win and it changes too.

Not saying we will, but atleast Dec is a little meaningful right now.

[ReichOneBaby]

correct...

We would root for Cinci to beat Pittsburgh, and lose 2 other games..

And the for Pitt to lose to SD or Cleveland and Cinci...

I'd be willing to bet this plays out for us, but we don't win out. Happens every time we get close. The chips fall how we need them to, and The Bills blow it

[bumbles247]

If Cincy beats Pitt and then loses to Baltimore, and Pitt loses one more game, the Bills would win a three way with those teams at 9-7.

[wilcoam]

Dec is still not meaningful
Now if the Bills had taken care of business in just one of the Tenn or Colts game it would have been
We would be one game back now with 4 to go and a better conference record
Then this would be a very active thread
One less game of a putrid run defense or one less Fitz turnover and we'd have had a meaningful Dec
Just saying...

jc

[LABILLBACKER]

2.4% that's all you need to know.

That's the odds that the Bills make the playoffs. A single loss and that number changes to 0%

.....one more loss and we can go to what we do every year....start up that draft talk.....YAY!

[KcoxBillsfan]

Bills win out

Pitt loses to SD, Dal, Cinn

Cinn loses to Dal, Bal, beats Pitt.

Wow, that's a lot of HELP needed... plus winning out!!! You never know!

Warning to the general fan, this post is a debbie-downer. I'm not trolling, I'm not "being a realist," I want the Bills to win just as much as you do, but I'm trying to save your heart from being crushed when the following happens:

I'm least confident that bold above happens. Someone said it earlier in this thread, but the start of all of these if/and/or/but/could/will/maybe playoff scenarios is the Bills winning out.

Since week 2, the Dolphins have only played in 1 game that wasn't decided by a touchdown or less (a blowout by the titans).
While the Jets are clearly terrible, they've played close games against the Texans and Patriots (1/2), crushed the colts (who beat the Bills), and of course crushed the bills in the far off land of week 1.
The Rams, another obviously poor team, have managed to beat and tie the 49ers this year, and beat the cardinals (who the bills really should have lost two) handily twice.
The Seahawks are 7-5, have beaten the Bears, Packers, and Patriots this year (and demolished the cowboys), their 5 loses have come at a total deficit of only 24 points (average of ~5 points per loss), and they are the only team on this list that have scored a net-positive amount of points this year at +40 (Bills and Jets are the bottom two at -60 and -68, just ahead of the crap bucket of -100 teams: Eagles, Titans, Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders (two bills victories from that group))

By point differential the Bills victories have come against the 31st, 30th, 24th, 21st, and 20th worst teams in the league, and the Bills are the 26th worst team.

I want to see them make the playoffs as much as anyone, but I'm not deluding myself into thinking that they will, that they are a "playoff caliber" team, that they would pull a Giants when they got their, or that this organization doesn't need changes. Continuity would be great if there was any clear indication that the team as a whole or Chan's ability to coach it was improving, but I just don't see it. They rarely win games on the road, in the division, or against winning teams. I would guess they finish 7-9 (losing to the Seahawks and either the Rams or Dolphins) and Buddy Nix and Chan frame it as a linear improvement from 4-12 and 6-10 on their way to the Superbowl and keep their jobs.

[LINDA_D]

It actually can get quite complicated. It all depends on who those two losses by Pitt and Cincy are to. It has to goes to another tiebreaker after that which has to do with strength of victory (if I remember correctly).

Both the Bengals and the Steelers have a average to tough schedule coming up so them each losing a couple games could happen.

Bills just need to take care of business and let the chips fall....take care of yourself first then worry about everything else. First things first...beat the Rams.

If the Bills get to 9-7, I will be as happy as a pig in ... well, you know the saying I'm sure! Anything more would be a huge bonus but this is a strange season.

[God Father]

I have said this every year and its always been correct, the hardest part is the Bills doing their part. They have never done their part in these scenarios.

Lol you have a very good point. I can't remember the last time they actually did their part.

[bumbles247]

Here is the tiebreaker answer:

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

Thanks, but that's the procedure for teams all in the same division. Wild card tiebreaker procedure is slightly different (bolded).

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
   
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
   
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

[bumbles247]

Thanks, but that's the procedure for teams all in the same division. Wild card tiebreaker procedure is slightly different (bolded).

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
   
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
   
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

Note that divisional teams are narrowed down to just one team before the other steps are taken. This is how we could lose a tiebreaker to Pitt at 9-7 but still beat them in a 9-7 three way with Cincy as long as Cincy beats Pitt in 3 weeks. Cincy would eliminate Pitt first and foremost.

[DarylLamonica]

You are correct bumbles, I refernced the wrong section.

[transplantbillsfan]

2.4% that's all you need to know.

That's the odds that the Bills make the playoffs. A single loss and that number changes to 0%

You and Squirrel keep bringing this number up, but you completely neglect the point posed by threads like this. Now switch it to 4 straight wins and going 9-7... that increases it, doesn't it? Threads like this assume we win out, so your 2.4% is a moot point. We all understand it's unlikely they win out, but if they do, people want to know what our chances are of getting in. I don't even know the percentages, but I bet if we go 9-7, the % is somewhere around 30%-40%, which isn't bad.

[transplantbillsfan]

If Cincy beats Pitt and then loses to Baltimore, and Pitt loses one more game, the Bills would win a three way with those teams at 9-7.

This... if Pittsburgh ends up 9-7, we need Cincy to be 9-7, also. And 1 of Cincy's 2 losses has to be against a conference opponent. That happens and we're in.

[row_33]

2.4% that's all you need to know.

That's the odds that the Bills make the playoffs. A single loss and that number changes to 0%

Ben returning for the last 3 games makes it negative % for the Bills

[vegasloveforthebills]

Ben returning for the last 3 games makes it negative % for the Bills

Whats funny, is Pitts is a team that tends to play down to their opponents.

3 of their 5 Losses this year- Tenn, Cleveland and Tennessee. Also barely beat KC and Philly

Not saying I expect anything, just pointing out, Pitts is a team you cant trust. They will probably lose to Cleve again or Sd, but beat Dallas and Cincy. Thats Just the way they are.

[DaMan20]

Cin needs to lose 1more to afc. And pit 2more... if so Bills have tiebreaker. I did the simulation

[albwan]

Has anyone watch this team play this year. There is about a ZERO percent chance the Bills win out.

lol my sentiments exactly, they are a horrible football team, with virtually no character, the bills wins
have all come by default this season. Not one impressive win.

[vegasloveforthebills]

lol my sentiments exactly, they are a horrible football team, with virtually no character, the bills wins
have all come by default this season. Not one impressive win.

Default, wow. I didnt know we won 5 games by forfeit. Nice

[joe05667]

lol my sentiments exactly, they are a horrible football team, with virtually no character, the bills wins
have all come by default this season. Not one impressive win.

I don't think it's that much of a stretch to think the Bills can win out with the weak schedule we face. The defense has been much improved as of late, Chan might just give CJ and Freddy 20+ touches each from here on out and let Fitz manage the games. This Bills look like a completely different team since the bye week. Granted we lost 3, but they hung right in there with 2 of the best teams in the league. The remaining opponents are pretty weak, the Rams and Seahawks being the toughest, but still very winnable. Odds of getting in the playoffs are slim even if the Bills do win out, but I am glad that the defense is playing better and someone is questioning Chan's play calling ability, because I think this team is playoff bound next year. (As long as we resign Byrd)

[marshawnrocks23]

I just did a scenario where Buffalo wins out 9-7
Pittsburgh beats the Chargers and loses to the Cowboys, Bengals, and Browns 9-7
Colts lose to Titans and Texans, beat the Chiefs, then lose to the Texans again 9-7
Lastly Bengals lost to Cowboys, beat Steelers and Eagles, and lose to Ravens 9-7

The Bills get the 6th seed and the Steelers get the 5th seed. Im doubting we get in. Im doubting we win out. Just fun to speculate for once