Ok so obviously it's looking like the Colts have pretty much secured a wild card slot. Not very likely they're lose the last 4 games of their season. They'll probably lose to the Texans twice but anything can happen.
So it comes down to Cincy and Pitt. Last week they both won which really hurt our chances of catching them. But there are still 4 games left. Cincy and Pitt have one game left against each other so we know that one of them is gauranteed at least one loss that game. Unfortunately one of them is also guaranteed a win. Let's not waste time talking about a tie when we know that's nearly impossible and unlikely.
Cincy's schedule coming up is.... vs. Dallas - @ Philly - @ Pitt - vs. Baltimore
I think their schedule looks pretty tough. They should have no problem beating Philly but the other 3 games are all going to be tough. Cincy could very easily drop 3 of their next 4 games. However the perfect scenario would be for them to beat Pitt and lose the other 3 games. Only issue is it's unlikely b/c they're on a hot streak. We're 2 games behind cincy. If they fall to 9-7 on the year with a loss to Pitt and Balt then we will beat them in the tie breaker b/c we'll have 1 more win in the conference. They'll most likely lose to Pitt and Balt.
Pitt's schedule isn't as difficult looking.... vs. SD - @ Dallas - vs. Cincy - vs. Clevland
So basically 3 home games and 1 road game in Dallas. Personally I think Pitt will win all 4 of these games but they might possibly lose to Dallas. That would clinch the 2nd wild card for them regardless of how Buff finishes b/c they'd be 10-6. We need Pitt to lose 2 of these games and I just don't see it happening considering Ben was full practice according to the website.
So while it is possible that Buff could sneak in with a 9-7 record it's looking unlikely.