Ram's DVOA is 2 ranks higher than the Bills. Which mean the Bills at home makes this a very close game. (barring special teams TDs or turnover TDs)
that history isn't surprising considering the Rams have sucked the last 5 years.
The Bills DVOA is -7.1 (not good, but better once it is weighted against the last 5 games of our schedule) and the Rams DVOA -4.3 (again not good, the goal is to be positive +) only tell half of the story. You have to add the matchups of our Offense (-1.8 DVOA) ranked 18th in the league vs. the Rams defense (-4.7 - negative DVOA is what you want out of your defensive unit, zero 0 is the baseline for league avg.) ranked 9th. Its not a good matchup for us.
The area the Bills can separate themselves from the Rams will have to come from the special teams where the Bills are ranked 6th in the league, and the Rams are ranked 26th. Our best chance is if Leodis et. al can score on a punt return or a kick return.
Looking back, in retrospect......never mind.
Rams are 0-3 against AFC East this season.
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Well, they lost by 14 points to the Jets the week after the first SF match up, so there could be something to this. It could be a combination of a letdown game and not being where they need to be physically.
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” -William Ward