The failed Losman experiment

[whorlnut]

I really dont understand how the FO at OBD disregarded your advice and didnt draft the guy.
I mean, what the hell is wrong with them when they cant even consider the opinions of the BBMB.

I have no idea how you could have gotten shot down by all of the draft gurus when it came to drafting the guy......unless of course, you truly believe that your opinion is in any way relevant and influential in any decision at OBD.
If this is in fact the case, then whisper in Nixs ear in the war room on draft day for a new QB...........and tell him that Pocari thinks this franchise is coming along too slow.

Haha! I was thinking the same thing. That's what we all have. Opinions. Yet Linda thinks that her opinion should be held at a higher standard.

[DIESEL-USMC]

LOL. I also love how LINDA D, in one post, doesn't believe in going all-in for a "non-consensus #1 QB" but HEY LOOKIE HERE I WOUDLA TAKEN RUSSEL WILSON IN THE SECOND OR THIRD BECAUSE YA KNOW HE LOOKS GOOD.

Doing what it takes by trading up to gamble on a non consensus at #1 is a lot different than picking in designation in the 2nd or 3rd for a gamble.....less risk....because you may have given away 2 of your next picks to get the flop.....back 2 steps.

[stuvian]

1. We have failed to put together an organization that can bring a young QB along.
2. We have failed to continue to draft quality depth behind very questionable starters. When things don't work out it means we have to start over again.

[pocari-sweat]

Haha! I was thinking the same thing. That's what we all have. Opinions. Yet Linda thinks that her opinion should be held at a higher standard.

Some people on the BBMB truly believe that they are above others and think their opinions are the only ones that matter.

It truly is shameful.

[forever 7-9]

Doing what it takes by trading up to gamble on a non consensus at #1 is a lot different than picking in designation in the 2nd or 3rd for a gamble.....less risk....because you may have given away 2 of your next picks to get the flop.....back 2 steps.

Definitely. But it's just ridiculous and wrong to put definitive limits on your own strategy like "don't trade up for a non-consensus #1 QB." It's self-defeating. A well-run organization would consider all options.

And, certainly, if you *hit* on the guy, it is easily worth the picks given up. But the Bills strategy for years has been to defer the question -- to refuse to take the risk all together...and that is assured failure.

[DIESEL-USMC]

Definitely. But it's just ridiculous and wrong to put definitive limits on your own strategy like "don't trade up for a non-consensus #1 QB." It's self-defeating. A well-run organization would consider all options.

And, certainly, if you *hit* on the guy, it is easily worth the picks given up. But the Bills strategy for years has been to defer the question -- to refuse to take the risk all together...and that is assured failure.

Even if they had taken huge risks (not knowing what talent they turned out to be) and they flopped, this message board would be the complete opposite in that posters would be calling for heads because we wasted picks. But I get you. We are all frustrated.

[forever 7-9]

Even if they had taken huge risks (not knowing what talent they turned out to be) and they flopped, this message board would be the complete opposite in that posters would be calling for heads because we wasted picks. But I get you. We are all frustrated.

Yep. But you have to judge the process and I think the process of continually deferring on the question is terrible.

[DIESEL-USMC]

Yep. But you have to judge the process and I think the process of continually deferring on the question is terrible.

I can't say what I would have done in the situation without having done it, but definitely, a chance or two would have been in the mix at some point.

[GottaBillieve]

Losman wasn't ready for the NFL when we drafted him. He came in with a chip on his shoulder and got layed out in training camp. In his second season, he was handed the keys to the car, and he wasn't ready to drive.

The Bills brought Losman along the wrong way. Losman was a guy who needed to sit behind a QB for a few years, probably 3, to really learn the NFL. He needed the reps in garbage time and in preseason. Instead, we fed him to the wolves.

I'm not saying Losman could have been good, but we ruined any chance he had of becoming good by playing him when he wasn't ready.

Pretty much sums it up....

[Joe Fan]

I totally agree. Did anyone in their right minds think that Russell Wilson was going to be this good? He looks like a guy that can be THE guy for Seattle for 7 to 10 years. Nobody thought he would be that. What about Dalton? Nobody thought the Bengals would have that position locked up for the foreseeable future with him. I think any one of the guys that may be there when we pick can be just as good if not better than most starting quarterbacks in this league. Barkley, Jones, Wilson, maybe even Glennon would possibly set us up for the next ten years.

Actually quite a few posters on this board were begging for Wilson as one of the top QB's in the draft. Others pleaded for Kaepernick. A couple even wanted Dalton. Its not that hard. Bills need quarterbacks, they need to take chances, but it is also very likely time will show they should have made their move earlier than 2013.

[Jeter1231]

I like the post a lot, I like how you bring up not being gun shy about drafting a QB, but at the same time you basically say you would take any viable QB option.

[GottaBillieve]

We are primed and ready for a QB this draft... So there's nothing left to do but wait and see if they pull an RG3 or a Tom Brady on draft day... I think we need to pick the player we truly want, not continue picking best available wherever we happen to land. Meaning if we see the next Jim Kelly out there weather he's a 1st rounder or 5th rounder should make no difference in our aggressiveness going after him. Falcons did it with Julio Jones and have been dominant since. Redskins did it with RG3 and we can all see the amazing potential there... Don't do it cuz your scared you wont get one (J.P. Losman), do it cuz the guy is obviously gonna be great. Julio Jones was an obvious baller, super-freak of an athlete... RG3 as well. There really wasn't much risk. When the guy comes from some small school, D3, feel-good-story BS, thats when we need to stop and re-evaluate the priority. This team gets caught up in the story behind the players WAAAAAAY to much. Belichick plays murderers and cheats on a regular basis and wins. Stop trying to build some gentlemen's gathering for football and build a hardcore smash-mouth team... We need a few players with "killer instinct"...

[BeastOfTheEast]

Unlike even 5 years ago, so many college kids seem prepared to come in and play right away. They have already been schooled in pro style offenses, reading defenses, etc..

Freaking out over not being able to draft the top guy or even the 2nd or 3rd rated QB shouldn't stop a team from possibly drafting their own franchise guy if they feel one is there that a team feels fits the mold.

[mvp216]

Yes, I did. I wanted the Bills to take him in the third, and I wouldn't have minded him in the second, either. There were a few other posters who were high on him, too, but we all got shot down by all the draft "gurus" on this MB because he's short (5'11'' IIRC). If he'd been 6'2", he'd have gone in the top five.

I'm absolutely with you Linda. I thought the world of the kid after I watched the Gruden camp on him and researched more on him afterwards. Like you, I actually wanted him when he was there in the 2nd round. When he fell in our laps in the Third Round I was convinced we were going to draft him. But alas, OBD was stupid and picked TJ Graham instead of a franchise QB. Now I have no idea what is to become of the QB spot in Buffalo... The upcoming draft isn't loaded at QB like last year. In fact, there isn't a single QB as good as Luck, Griffin or Wilson in the coming draft. People make it sound like it is tough to grade talent, but it really isn't when you are unbiased in your review. Like if we take a LB in the first round next year: I would want Mosley from Alabama WAAAAAAAAAY more than Te'o from Notre Dame. I guarantee Mosley becomes a Pro Bowl Linebacker in the NFL. If you look around here on this board though, most would disagree with me.

[LINDA_D]

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...1983/draft.htm What a disaster that strategy would have been for a team trading up for Jim Kelly or Dan Marino...


The idea that, in a given year, there is a finite number of potentially great QB's is ridiculous. If you like a guy and he's the 3rd rated...get him.

Todd Blackledge wasn't the consensus 2nd best pick in the 1983 draft; he went #7, and I specifically said that I wasn't talking about the 2nd best QB but the 2nd best player. Big difference. Elway was #1 and Eric Dickerson was #2 that year. Trading up to get either of those two would have been a good deal for any team, so 1983 actually supports my opinion that a team shouldn't try to trade up unless it's for the agreed upon very best first or second player in the draft. Trading up for Blackledge in 1983 would have been as dumb as trading up for Losman in 2004 or Sanchez in 2009. Staying put in 1983 enabled the Bills and Carp to grab future HOFers. Off hand, I can't think of a team since 1983 that traded up to grab a QB and found success with him except in one instance: the Giants traded for Eli Manning, the #1 consensus pick, in 2004.

Is there some arbitrary number of possible successful QBs in any particular draft? No, but you can look at drafts historically and see that most drafts yield one successful -- NOT necessarily great -- QB regardless of how many QBs are taken in the first round. A few drafts will produce NO successful QBs and a few others will produce more than one.

[BillsExpert]

The chips didn't fall right in Nix draft plans. I'm sure he wanted to take a few guys over the last 3 years. Either they were taken already or it would have been a reach at their spot.

Fitz scrambled last year very effectively. He was leading even Mike Vick in running for 3/4 of the season. Without a quality backup, he isn't doing that this season. I have a feeling this was handed down by the coaching staff. Now waits too long and runs to minimize the loss or gain a couple yards. Most good QB's extend the play to make a throw, I don't see that happening much. He may as well take of and get the yards.

Let's hope we bring in someone to push Fitz. If he is a solid backup, Fitz can run and should he get hurt, we have a capable player ready to step in.

[jcmccall]

Unlike even 5 years ago, so many college kids seem prepared to come in and play right away. They have already been schooled in pro style offenses, reading defenses, etc..

Freaking out over not being able to draft the top guy or even the 2nd or 3rd rated QB shouldn't stop a team from possibly drafting their own franchise guy if they feel one is there that a team feels fits the mold.

I think part of it is more NFL teams are running spread style offenses or have a decent amount of spread formations in their offense, so the transition isn't so harsh as it once was.

[forever 7-9]

Todd Blackledge wasn't the consensus 2nd best pick in the 1983 draft; he went #7, and I specifically said that I wasn't talking about the 2nd best QB but the 2nd best player. Big difference. Elway was #1 and Eric Dickerson was #2 that year. Trading up to get either of those two would have been a good deal for any team, so 1983 actually supports my opinion that a team shouldn't try to trade up unless it's for the agreed upon very best first or second player in the draft. Trading up for Blackledge in 1983 would have been as dumb as trading up for Losman in 2004 or Sanchez in 2009. Staying put in 1983 enabled the Bills and Carp to grab future HOFers. Off hand, I can't think of a team since 1983 that traded up to grab a QB and found success with him except in one instance: the Giants traded for Eli Manning, the #1 consensus pick, in 2004.

Is there some arbitrary number of possible successful QBs in any particular draft? No, but you can look at drafts historically and see that most drafts yield one successful -- NOT necessarily great -- QB regardless of how many QBs are taken in the first round. A few drafts will produce NO successful QBs and a few others will produce more than one.

Linda, you're making my point w/ that last paragraphs. You can't reasonably predict the distribution of great QB's within a draft OTHER than to have certain guys you like or don't like. So if you like one and 3 have already been taken, you take him....and if necessary trade up to do so.