Buddy Nix Drafts VS. Walter Football and PFW

[Joe Fan]

It is my contention that picking in the first three rounds of the NFL draft is not very difficult. In recent years, in particular 2011, the drafts have been deep enough that it was hard to miss on any of the early picks.

Further, its my contention that Buddy Nix isn't really any better at drafting than a $9.95 NFL draft guide that you can pick up on any magazine stand or most of the "big boards" that you see on the internet pre-draft. Below is a chart comparing players that Walter Football (2010) and Pro Football Weekly (2011 and 2012) had ranked higher than the player Nix actually pick and who were available when Nix picked. I started with WF, and switch to PFW when i discovered that WF's big board was only 32 players after 2010. Didn't feel like redoing 2010.

This is not a strictly hindsight comparison. These are all players "amateurs" had ranked higher than the player Nix picked, BEFORE nix picked them. This doesn't prove Nix is bad at drafting, but its pretty clear he hasn't done anything special. nixvswf.JPG

The 2010 draft is particularly galling when you realize that in fact the Patriots took Gronk and Hernandez, and we could have had them, and kept Lynch and taken Pierre-Paul. People talk about how "missing on a QB" sets a team back. Its pretty clear that missing on the entire 2010 draft (spiller is not a meaningful upgrade over lynch, sorry folks) really underlies why the Bills needed to desperately jump into free agency last year, and why the Bills continue to fail.

[Stud37]

Lynch wanted out... Spiller would be unstoppable if he was actually used. But yes, we should have drafted Gronk. Oh well.

[Feeling On Youboty]

Who do you want in the first three rounds this year?

[Billzgobowlin]

2010 looks better but who knows what the ceiling for Spiller and Carrington (and Troup for that matter) is. 2011 and 2012 I would take any day and didn't Walter Football have us taking Maybin the year before?

[DarylLamonica]

Gee, another classic BBMB revisionist history thread.

If only we had drafted Gronk, if only we had drafted Brady, whine whine whine...

[DarylLamonica]

2010 looks better but who knows what the ceiling for Spiller and Carrington (and Troup for that matter) is. 2011 and 2012 I would take any day and didn't Walter Football have us taking Maybin the year before?

Correct on everything here. It would be amazing if Troup has a year to fully recover.

[bilzfancy]

Carrington is the perfect example of why you can't really judge a draft till after 3 years

[Billsnation2010]

It is my contention that picking in the first three rounds of the NFL draft is not very difficult. In recent years, in particular 2011, the drafts have been deep enough that it was hard to miss on any of the early picks.

Further, its my contention that Buddy Nix isn't really any better at drafting than a $9.95 NFL draft guide that you can pick up on any magazine stand or most of the "big boards" that you see on the internet pre-draft. Below is a chart comparing players that Walter Football (2010) and Pro Football Weekly (2011 and 2012) had ranked higher than the player Nix actually pick and who were available when Nix picked. I started with WF, and switch to PFW when i discovered that WF's big board was only 32 players after 2010. Didn't feel like redoing 2010.

This is not a strictly hindsight comparison. These are all players "amateurs" had ranked higher than the player Nix picked, BEFORE nix picked them. This doesn't prove Nix is bad at drafting, but its pretty clear he hasn't done anything special. nixvswf.JPG

The 2010 draft is particularly galling when you realize that in fact the Patriots took Gronk and Hernandez, and we could have had them, and kept Lynch and taken Pierre-Paul. People talk about how "missing on a QB" sets a team back. Its pretty clear that missing on the entire 2010 draft (spiller is not a meaningful upgrade over lynch, sorry folks) really underlies why the Bills needed to desperately jump into free agency last year, and why the Bills continue to fail.

You do know that even the experts cannot see into the future right? I pay for Mel Kiper Jr. books every year not because I believe they are going to guess every single pick correctly but for the in depth articles he writes up on every player, he studies them from day 1 when they step on the field to the last day of college. old 40 times, new 40 times, speed from start to finish.

I don't understand why anyone would pay money to see how many correct picks the expert gets, I mean do you really care who Cincy, San Fran, Dallas or Chic really take? (I'm talking about the majority not you the Bills/Chicago fan LOL)

[Joe Fan]

Who do you want in the first three rounds this year?

Well, I have have no idea at this point. I am not a football GM who has the job of working on this year round. But by the time the combine is done and I have read dozen's of "amateur" analysis I will have opinions for sure. By the time the draft rolls around there is lots of information available. The trick is for the GM's to not out think themselves. There are dozens of posters on this board who, if they had a staff of scouts, and a full year to think about it would easily do just as well as Mr. Nix.

Supporting Mr. Nix means that you are fully comfortable that after three years that the team you have assembled, with no major injuries for most of the season, is incapable of beating a single team with a winning record. I honestly think there are 10's of thousands of people who could do at least that well.

[Joe Fan]

Carrington is the perfect example of why you can't really judge a draft till after 3 years

We play the patriots twice a year. They picked a guy in the third round who is an integral part of a winning team with their third pick. We picked a guy who is a role player on a losing team. Fail.

[giarmyjoe]

Why have we not hired Walter? What the hell is going on...billboard time!

[DarylLamonica]

[QUOTE=jrb16915;6513916]Well, I have have no idea at this point. I am not a football GM who has the job of working on this year round. But by the time the combine is done and I have read dozen's of "amateur" analysis I will have opinions for sure. By the time the draft rolls around there is lots of information available. The trick is for the GM's to not out think themselves. There are dozens of posters on this board who, if they had a staff of scouts, and a full year to think about it would easily do just as well as Mr. Nix.

Supporting Mr. Nix means that you are fully comfortable that after three years that the team you have assembled, with no major injuries for most of the season, is incapable of beating a single team with a winning record. I honestly think there are 10's of thousands of people who could do at least that well.[/QUOTE]

You make some grandiose claims.

No supporting Nix does not mean you are "fully comfortable" with all you wrote, that might be how YOU see.

So if the Bills beat Seattle wil you come back and say the thrust of your thread was wrong? No, of course you wont.

And finally, no there are not 10s of thousands that could do at least as well, that is fantasy land. There is a lot more to being a GM than the draft, this is not Madden.

[bilzfancy]

We play the patriots twice a year. They picked a guy in the third round who is an integral part of a winning team with their third pick. We picked a guy who is a role player on a losing team. Fail.

Taylor Price was picked in the 3rd rd by the Pats, I've never heard of him, you fail

[Luka_GoBills]

[QUOTE=DarylLamonica;6513927]

Well, I have have no idea at this point. I am not a football GM who has the job of working on this year round. But by the time the combine is done and I have read dozen's of "amateur" analysis I will have opinions for sure. By the time the draft rolls around there is lots of information available. The trick is for the GM's to not out think themselves. There are dozens of posters on this board who, if they had a staff of scouts, and a full year to think about it would easily do just as well as Mr. Nix.

Supporting Mr. Nix means that you are fully comfortable that after three years that the team you have assembled, with no major injuries for most of the season, is incapable of beating a single team with a winning record. I honestly think there are 10's of thousands of people who could do at least that well.[/QUOTE]

You make some grandiose claims.

No supporting Nix does not mean you are "fully comfortable" with all you wrote, that might be how YOU see.

So if the Bills beat Seattle wil you come back and say the thrust of your thread was wrong? No, of course you wont.

And finally, no there are not 10s of thousands that could do at least as well, that is fantasy land. There is a lot more to being a GM than the draft, this is not Madden.

Everyone could be a GM if they could see one year into the future.

[DKTurtle]

We play the patriots twice a year. They picked a guy in the third round who is an integral part of a winning team with their third pick. We picked a guy who is a role player on a losing team. Fail.

Is Ryan Mallet an integral part of the Patriots winning? How about Ron Brace? Jake Bequette? Shane Vereen? Jermaine Cunningham? Taylor Price? Ras I Dowling?

Those are all Patriots picks from rounds 1-3 during the Nix era in Buffalo. You have a point, but you are trying so hard to make it that you contradict yourself. Teams miss all the time, even good ones.

I think the bottom line is that if Nix finds a QB, the rest of his drafts will look fine.

[Dr Strangelove]

friggin A bro how can you compare Buddy Nix to some guy named Walter.

[Billsfootball1027]

It is my contention that picking in the first three rounds of the NFL draft is not very difficult. In recent years, in particular 2011, the drafts have been deep enough that it was hard to miss on any of the early picks.

Further, its my contention that Buddy Nix isn't really any better at drafting than a $9.95 NFL draft guide that you can pick up on any magazine stand or most of the "big boards" that you see on the internet pre-draft. Below is a chart comparing players that Walter Football (2010) and Pro Football Weekly (2011 and 2012) had ranked higher than the player Nix actually pick and who were available when Nix picked. I started with WF, and switch to PFW when i discovered that WF's big board was only 32 players after 2010. Didn't feel like redoing 2010.

This is not a strictly hindsight comparison. These are all players "amateurs" had ranked higher than the player Nix picked, BEFORE nix picked them. This doesn't prove Nix is bad at drafting, but its pretty clear he hasn't done anything special. nixvswf.JPG

The 2010 draft is particularly galling when you realize that in fact the Patriots took Gronk and Hernandez, and we could have had them, and kept Lynch and taken Pierre-Paul. People talk about how "missing on a QB" sets a team back. Its pretty clear that missing on the entire 2010 draft (spiller is not a meaningful upgrade over lynch, sorry folks) really underlies why the Bills needed to desperately jump into free agency last year, and why the Bills continue to fail.

Im not a big fan of walterfootball mock drafts.......

[eich1517]

I don't see anywhere in that list that shows maybe a guy that was ranked higher that is a bust now, show the whole list so we can get a better idea please

[intimidatortj]

You have some valid points. The biggest issue with the 2010 draft was 1) Buddy was named GM i think in January 2010. Draft evaluations take place from May 1st until January. I think he had to go with Modrak's board. 2) Buddy decided to switch to a 3-4 defense, and draft for a 3-4. Which in hindsight was a complete waste of time.

On the otherhand, our first round draft picks for the 10-12 years prior to Buddy had sucked. At least he is disciplined enough to pick the best player and not chase Aaron Maybin type picks.

Buddy was also disciplined enough to wait for Cordy Glenn, after taking a corner in the 1st round. The 2012 could be his best draft.

[vegasloveforthebills]

So in 2010- we should have taken A Hernandez in the 3rd round according to Walter, when nobody did, and he fell into the mid 4th round.

2011- we should have taken an upgraded version of McKelvin, instead of the player a lot of other people considered the best player in the draft. For a while, people thought Carolina would take Dareus.