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Thread: "Analyitics" of Drafting a Quarterback

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    Default "Analyitics" of Drafting a Quarterback

    Buffalo Bills

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    Draft Metric's Historical Review of Selecting a QB

    What we see in the article is that the most 5 year starting quarterbacks come from either the Big 10, PAC 12 or the SEC for the past two decades.

    NCAA Football Conferences

    Now that we know where to look, next we have to know when to pick. The data makes it pretty obvious. Top 28 pick means that you draft a QB if in need (and, obviously, one that is graded some where near those picks).

    Here was last year's draft for reference.

    1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck – Stanford – Round 1 Pick 1(1) PAC12

    2. Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III – Baylor – Round 1 Pick 2(2) BIG 12

    3. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill – Texas A & M – Round 1 Pick 8(8) BIG 12

    4. Cleveland Browns – Brandon Weeden – Oklahoma State – Round 1 Pick 22(22) BIG 12

    5. Denver Broncos – Brock Osweiler – Arizona State – Round 2 Pick 25(57) PAC 12

    6. Seattle Seahawks – Russell Wilson – Wisconsin – Round 3 Pick 12(75) Big 10

    7. Philadelphia Eagles – Nick Foles – Arizona – Round 3 Pick 25(88) PAC 12

    8. Washington Redskins – Kirk Cousins – Michigan State – Round 4 Pick 7(102) Big 10

    9. Arizona Cardinals – Ryan Lindley – San Diego State – Round 6 Pick 15(185) Mountain West

    10. Green Bay Packers – BJ Coleman – Tennessee Chattanooga – Round 7 Pick 36(243) Southern Conference FBS

    11. Indianapolis Colts – Chandler Harnish – Northern Illinois – Round 7 Pick 46(253) MAC

    60% of the quarterbacks chosen are from the top 3 conferences in the study. And I would say the Big 12 also factors greatly in this, so from rounds 1-4, you have guys from all four of those conferences drafted exclusively.

    Now, a list of quarterbacks available in the 2013 NFL Draft.




    Geno Smith West Virgina BIG 12 Senior 1st Round
    Matt Barkley Southern California PAC 12 Senior 1st Round
    Tyler Wilson Arkansas SEC Redshirt Senior 1st - 2nd Round
    Ryan Nassib Syracuse Big East Redshirt Senior 2nd Round
    Mike Glennon NC State ACC Redshirt Senior 2nd Round
    Tyler Bray Tennessee SEC Junior 2nd Round
    Zac Dysert Miami, OH MAC Redshirt Senior 2nd - 3rd Round
    Logan Thomas Virgina Tech ACC Junior 2nd - 3rd Round
    Landry Jones Oklahoma BIG 12 Redshirt Senior 2nd - 3rd Round
    EJ Manuel Florida State ACC Redshirt Senior 3rd Round
    Matt Scott Arizona PAC 12 Redshirt Senior 3rd - 4th Round
    Colby Cameron Louisana Tech WAC Redshirt Senior 4th - 5th Round
    Brad Sorensen Southern Utah Big Sky Redshirt Senior 5th - 6th Round
    Collin Klein Kansas State BIG 12 Redshirt Senior 6th - 7th Round
    Jordan Rodgers Vanderbilt SEC Redshirt Senior 7th Round
    Nick Florence Baylor BIG 12 Redshirt Senior 7th Round/UFA
    Matt McGloin Penn State BIG 10 Redshirt Senior 7th Round/UFA
    Sean Renfree Duke ACC Redshirt Senior 7th Round/UFA
    Seth Doege Texas Tech BIG 12 Redshirt Senior 7th Round/UFA
    Jeff Tuel Washington State PAC 12 Senior 7th Round/UFA


    Let's eliminate QBs not from the four most successful conferences. (BIG 10, PAC 12, BIG 12, SEC)


    Geno Smith West Virgina BIG 12 Senior 1st Round
    Matt Barkley Southern California PAC 12 Senior 1st Round
    Tyler Wilson Arkansas SEC Redshirt Senior 1st - 2nd Round
    Tyler Bray Tennessee SEC Junior 2nd Round
    Landry Jones Oklahoma BIG 12 Redshirt Senior 2nd - 3rd Round
    Matt Scott Arizona PAC 12 Redshirt Senior 3rd - 4th Round
    Collin Klein Kansas State BIG 12 Redshirt Senior 6th - 7th Round
    Jordan Rodgers Vanderbilt SEC Redshirt Senior 7th Round
    Nick Florence Baylor BIG 12 Redshirt Senior 7th Round/UFA
    Matt McGloin Penn State BIG 10 Redshirt Senior 7th Round/UFA
    Seth Doege Texas Tech BIG 12 Redshirt Senior 7th Round/UFA
    Jeff Tuel Washington State PAC 12 Senior 7th Round/UFA


    Now we will move on to what are considered general statistical rules when scouting or drafting a quarterback. No one has taken the wonderlic yet, so we will have to skip it, for now.

    First is the 26,27,60 rule. Pretty self explanatory.

    26 on the Wonderlic
    27 starts
    Career completion percentage of at least 60%

    Bill Parcells took this rule one step further and added some additional things that he likes to see in a young guy coming out.

    He must be a senior
    He must be a graduate
    He must be a three-year starter
    He must have 23 wins

    I think that, of all the rules, graduate and senior may be the least important. It would exclude a junior from consideration if said junior is a three year starter/has 23 wins, which is far more important in terms of football. Although this year it turns out, it's a non-issue as Bray is the only declared Junior, so we'll eliminate him from this round.

    QB Starts Completion % Years Starting Wins
    Geno Smith 31 67.4% 3 26
    Matt Barkley 47 64.1% 4 33
    Tyler Wilson 26 62.6% 2 17
    Landry Jones 51 63.6% 4 39
    Matt Scott 17 61.4% 1 12
    Collin Klein 26 61.3% 2 21
    Jordan Rodgers 17 55.9% 1 1/2 9
    Nick Florence 20 61.8% 2 10
    Matt McGloin 30 57.4% 2 1/2 20
    Seth Doege 28 69.0% 2 15
    Jeff Tuel 27 61.3% 3 4

    So, to create a huge stir here on the message board, the analysis says that the three most likely to succeed at the NFL level this year are! *drum roll*


    Geno Smith West Virgina BIG 12 Senior 1st Round
    Matt Barkley Southern California PAC 12 Senior 1st Round
    Landry Jones Oklahoma BIG 12 Redshirt Senior 2nd - 3rd Round

    This is not my personal opinion, but this what the numbers tell you.

    Trent Dilfer says Tebow is a completely different QB. And he has a ring.

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    I always laugh when people talk about Parcells like he was some QB Guru....

    With the Giants he inherited Phil Simms, with the Pats he inherited Drew Bledsoe, and with the Cowboys the only good QB he had was Romo which was a UDFA lightning in a bottle. He never was a QB guru, why do people spout off his formula like he was some aficionado of QBs wherever he went?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MoormanRules8 View Post
    I always laugh when people talk about Parcells like he was some QB Guru....

    With the Giants he inherited Phil Simms, with the Pats he inherited Drew Bledsoe, and with the Cowboys the only good QB he had was Romo which was a UDFA lightning in a bottle. He never was a QB guru, why do people spout off his formula like he was some aficionado of QBs wherever he went?
    The only thing Parcells was good at was winning SB rings while simultaneously growing a nice set of tits.
    "What matters is two years and three years down the road, if we have this thing turned around in the right direction and we're winning," Nix said. "I know before I'm asked this, you're going to think I'm crazy, but we're not that far away."


    “Russ and I scanned a list of possible candidates,” Wilson said. “We didn’t know them. I didn’t know them. I don’t think Russ did. We narrowed it down to two candidates for the job of general manager of football, two in-house candidates.”

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    Pretty good stuff.

    It would be interesting to see the results if we were to take a prior quarterback class, like 2008-2009, and see what those results looked like and if the quarterbacks they say to draft a worth a **** today.

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    This can't be true.

    I've already been told Ryan Nassib is the next Jim Kelly...
    Quote from FloridaGatorsBuffaloBills "Signing Mario Williams to a 100 million dollar deal would be the biggest mistake in Bills franchise history."

    Quote from Kingtut420 "Somewhere a small child gets eaten by wild lions every time mykidsdad posts on this message board."

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    Quote Originally Posted by MoormanRules8 View Post
    I always laugh when people talk about Parcells like he was some QB Guru....

    With the Giants he inherited Phil Simms, with the Pats he inherited Drew Bledsoe, and with the Cowboys the only good QB he had was Romo which was a UDFA lightning in a bottle. He never was a QB guru, why do people spout off his formula like he was some aficionado of QBs wherever he went?
    This formuala may have made sense back when Parcells was relevant - let's see how it applies to our eight finalists:

    Manning - pass
    Flacco - nope - Delaware (Rich Gannon went there too)

    Brady - fail 2 year starter only (actually 1 2/3rds)
    Schaub - Fail ACC

    Kaepernick - fail - Nevada and 58% career (64% senior yr) - meets all other criteria
    Rodgers - Fail - 2 years, JR, 18 wins

    Wilson - ??? - meets all but was only in Big 10 one year - ACC three
    Ryan - Fail - ACC 3/Big East 1

    Based on this years final 8 teams, I would say this formula is an epic fail
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    Where do you get your top 3? What do you do? I mean, what's the weighting system after you've narrowed it down to the second-to-last table? Did you do wins per start and completion percentage?
    Quote Originally Posted by teef View Post
    when i was staying at the belhurst castle in geneva, they had a red wine tap right outside of the room i was staying in. literally 2 feet away. it got to the point where i wasn't even putting on pants to tap more. i had red wine over everything i owned. when the tap ran dry, i called down to the front desk demanding they change it. i was given a stern, "no".

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    Quote Originally Posted by FloridaGatorsBuffaloBills View Post
    Pretty good stuff.

    It would be interesting to see the results if we were to take a prior quarterback class, like 2008-2009, and see what those results looked like and if the quarterbacks they say to draft a worth a **** today.
    I may undertake something like that at some point this weekend. Or at least go back through the first two rounds of a given year and see if the guys picked that high meet all these requirements.

    And Moorman, considering you idolize a punter that we cut this year, I think I'll take the Tuna's evaluating technique over yours any day. It's an often quoted principle and wether you agree with it or not, it makes perfect sense. By the way, his technique would say Tony Romo wasn't "lightning in a bottle."

    3 year starter, 62.8%, senior, graduate, more than 23 wins.

    Trent Dilfer says Tebow is a completely different QB. And he has a ring.

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    and the only one of those three we'd have a chance at is probably Landry Jones...

    (courtesy of DIESEL-USMC)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tates View Post
    This formuala may have made sense back when Parcells was relevant - let's see how it applies to our eight finalists:

    Manning - pass
    Flacco - nope - Delaware (Rich Gannon went there too)

    Brady - fail 2 year starter only (actually 1 2/3rds)
    Schaub - Fail ACC

    Kaepernick - fail - Nevada and 58% career (64% senior yr) - meets all other criteria
    Rodgers - Fail - 2 years, JR, 18 wins

    Wilson - ??? - meets all but was only in Big 10 one year - ACC three
    Ryan - Fail - ACC 3/Big East 1

    Based on this years final 8 teams, I would say this formula is an epic fail
    Your post is an epic fail.

    This was a combination of Draft Metrics history of successful QBs, I used those percentages to narrow the field, and then applied the Parcells Rule and the 26,27.60 rule. There are three things going on here, sorry if I made your brain explode.

    Trent Dilfer says Tebow is a completely different QB. And he has a ring.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NOVABilliever View Post
    Where do you get your top 3? What do you do? I mean, what's the weighting system after you've narrowed it down to the second-to-last table? Did you do wins per start and completion percentage?
    Wins and completions don't matter in determining a QB, what are you talking about?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Luka_GoBills View Post
    Your post is an epic fail.

    This was a combination of Draft Metrics history of successful QBs, I used those percentages to narrow the field, and then applied the Parcells Rule and the 26,27.60 rule. There are three things going on here, sorry if I made your brain explode.
    No I think we all got what you were saying, and what he is saying is if the Bills applied your criteria to the drafts where these players were taken, they never would have been drafted by us because they don't meet the criteria. Therefore your criteria must be flawed as they are the 8 remaining playoff QBs and Rodgers, Brady and Ryan, and Wilson were four of the best QBS in the NFL this year. Schaub, Kapernick, and Flacco are all guys I would take in a heart beat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FloridaGatorsBuffaloBills View Post
    Pretty good stuff.

    It would be interesting to see the results if we were to take a prior quarterback class, like 2008-2009, and see what those results looked like and if the quarterbacks they say to draft a worth a **** today.
    This is an interesting thread.

    I'd include ACC since Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub have been pretty good QB from there. Wilson too for the most part since he started at NC State.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MoormanRules8 View Post
    Wins and completions don't matter in determining a QB, what are you talking about?
    They mattered here...

    (courtesy of DIESEL-USMC)

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    Quote Originally Posted by NOVABilliever View Post
    Where do you get your top 3? What do you do? I mean, what's the weighting system after you've narrowed it down to the second-to-last table? Did you do wins per start and completion percentage?
    Ok, first I used the Draftmetric's history of successful QBs. It basically says a few conferences have had a ton more 5 year+ NFL starters over the past twenty years than others.

    So I used that to narrow it down to the second table, which is only guys from those 4 conferences.

    Then from there, they had to meet every rule to put them in the highest percentile of probable success.

    So 27 starts, 60%+ completion percentage, 3 years or more starting and 23 wins or more.

    Trent Dilfer says Tebow is a completely different QB. And he has a ring.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NOVABilliever View Post
    Where do you get your top 3? What do you do? I mean, what's the weighting system after you've narrowed it down to the second-to-last table? Did you do wins per start and completion percentage?
    the # of wins has to be above 23 or whatever

    (courtesy of DIESEL-USMC)

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    Quote Originally Posted by MoormanRules8 View Post
    No I think we all got what you were saying, and what he is saying is if the Bills applied your criteria to the drafts where these players were taken, they never would have been drafted by us because they don't meet the criteria. Therefore your criteria must be flawed as they are the 8 remaining playoff QBs and Rodgers, Brady and Ryan, and Wilson were four of the best QBS in the NFL this year. Schaub, Kapernick, and Flacco are all guys I would take in a heart beat.
    Listen, you don't get it.

    A) This is not my personal opinion, AS I SAID.
    B) This is an exercise in very basic statistical analysis to narrow down a field of 20 guys. This is what our front office is moving towards.
    C) We didn't draft anyone you speak of. So it's not if the Bills used this, it's more like it doesn't ****ing matter because we passed on them anyways.

    Trent Dilfer says Tebow is a completely different QB. And he has a ring.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Burp View Post
    This is an interesting thread.

    I'd include ACC since Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub have been pretty good QB from there. Wilson too for the most part since he started at NC State.
    Again, I'm only going by the Draftmetrics article. This isn't anything I've formulated myself, I thought it would be interesting to see what our analytics department comes up with.

    Trent Dilfer says Tebow is a completely different QB. And he has a ring.

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    Thanks for the writeup Luka
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhenTheFitzHitsTheChan View Post
    The only thing Parcells was good at was winning SB rings while simultaneously growing a nice set of tits.
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