"Analyitics" of Drafting a Quarterback

[Luka_GoBills]

Draft Metric's Historical Review of Selecting a QB

What we see in the article is that the most 5 year starting quarterbacks come from either the Big 10, PAC 12 or the SEC for the past two decades.

NCAA Football Conferences

Now that we know where to look, next we have to know when to pick. The data makes it pretty obvious. Top 28 pick means that you draft a QB if in need (and, obviously, one that is graded some where near those picks).

Here was last year's draft for reference.

1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck – Stanford – Round 1 Pick 1(1) PAC12

2. Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III – Baylor – Round 1 Pick 2(2) BIG 12

3. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill – Texas A & M – Round 1 Pick 8(8) BIG 12

4. Cleveland Browns – Brandon Weeden – Oklahoma State – Round 1 Pick 22(22) BIG 12

5. Denver Broncos – Brock Osweiler – Arizona State – Round 2 Pick 25(57) PAC 12

6. Seattle Seahawks – Russell Wilson – Wisconsin – Round 3 Pick 12(75) Big 10

7. Philadelphia Eagles – Nick Foles – Arizona – Round 3 Pick 25(88) PAC 12

8. Washington Redskins – Kirk Cousins – Michigan State – Round 4 Pick 7(102) Big 10

9. Arizona Cardinals – Ryan Lindley – San Diego State – Round 6 Pick 15(185) Mountain West

10. Green Bay Packers – BJ Coleman – Tennessee Chattanooga – Round 7 Pick 36(243) Southern Conference FBS

11. Indianapolis Colts – Chandler Harnish – Northern Illinois – Round 7 Pick 46(253) MAC

60% of the quarterbacks chosen are from the top 3 conferences in the study. And I would say the Big 12 also factors greatly in this, so from rounds 1-4, you have guys from all four of those conferences drafted exclusively.

Now, a list of quarterbacks available in the 2013 NFL Draft.

Geno Smith	West Virgina	BIG 12	Senior	1st Round
Matt Barkley	Southern California	PAC 12	Senior	1st Round
Tyler Wilson	Arkansas	SEC	Redshirt Senior	1st - 2nd Round
Ryan Nassib	Syracuse	Big East	Redshirt Senior	2nd Round
Mike Glennon	NC State	ACC	Redshirt Senior	2nd Round
Tyler Bray	Tennessee	SEC	Junior	2nd Round
Zac Dysert	Miami, OH	MAC	Redshirt Senior	2nd - 3rd Round
Logan Thomas	Virgina Tech	ACC	Junior	2nd - 3rd Round
Landry Jones	Oklahoma	BIG 12	Redshirt Senior	2nd - 3rd Round
EJ Manuel	Florida State	ACC	Redshirt Senior	3rd Round
Matt Scott	Arizona	PAC 12	Redshirt Senior	3rd - 4th Round
Colby Cameron	Louisana Tech	WAC	Redshirt Senior	4th - 5th Round
Brad Sorensen	Southern Utah	Big Sky	Redshirt Senior	5th - 6th Round
Collin Klein	Kansas State	BIG 12	Redshirt Senior	6th - 7th Round
Jordan Rodgers	Vanderbilt	SEC	Redshirt Senior	7th Round
Nick Florence	Baylor	BIG 12	Redshirt Senior	7th Round/UFA
Matt McGloin	Penn State	BIG 10	Redshirt Senior	7th Round/UFA
Sean Renfree	Duke	ACC	Redshirt Senior	7th Round/UFA
Seth Doege	Texas Tech	BIG 12	Redshirt Senior	7th Round/UFA
Jeff Tuel	Washington State	PAC 12	Senior	7th Round/UFA

Let's eliminate QBs not from the four most successful conferences. (BIG 10, PAC 12, BIG 12, SEC)

Geno Smith	West Virgina	BIG 12	Senior	1st Round
Matt Barkley	Southern California	PAC 12	Senior	1st Round
Tyler Wilson	Arkansas	SEC	Redshirt Senior	1st - 2nd Round
Tyler Bray	Tennessee	SEC	Junior	2nd Round
Landry Jones	Oklahoma	BIG 12	Redshirt Senior	2nd - 3rd Round
Matt Scott	Arizona	PAC 12	Redshirt Senior	3rd - 4th Round
Collin Klein	Kansas State	BIG 12	Redshirt Senior	6th - 7th Round
Jordan Rodgers	Vanderbilt	SEC	Redshirt Senior	7th Round
Nick Florence	Baylor	BIG 12	Redshirt Senior	7th Round/UFA
Matt McGloin	Penn State	BIG 10	Redshirt Senior	7th Round/UFA
Seth Doege	Texas Tech	BIG 12	Redshirt Senior	7th Round/UFA
Jeff Tuel	Washington State	PAC 12	Senior	7th Round/UFA

Now we will move on to what are considered general statistical rules when scouting or drafting a quarterback. No one has taken the wonderlic yet, so we will have to skip it, for now.

First is the 26,27,60 rule. Pretty self explanatory.

26 on the Wonderlic
27 starts
Career completion percentage of at least 60%

Bill Parcells took this rule one step further and added some additional things that he likes to see in a young guy coming out.

He must be a senior
He must be a graduate
He must be a three-year starter
He must have 23 wins

I think that, of all the rules, graduate and senior may be the least important. It would exclude a junior from consideration if said junior is a three year starter/has 23 wins, which is far more important in terms of football. Although this year it turns out, it's a non-issue as Bray is the only declared Junior, so we'll eliminate him from this round.

QB	Starts	Completion %	Years Starting	Wins
Geno Smith	31	67.4%	3	26
Matt Barkley	47	64.1%	4	33
Tyler Wilson	26	62.6%	2	17
Landry Jones	51	63.6%	4	39
Matt Scott	17	61.4%	1	12
Collin Klein	26	61.3%	2	21
Jordan Rodgers	17	55.9%	1 1/2	9
Nick Florence	20	61.8%	2	10
Matt McGloin	30	57.4%	2 1/2	20
Seth Doege	28	69.0%	2	15
Jeff Tuel	27	61.3%	3	4

So, to create a huge stir here on the message board, the analysis says that the three most likely to succeed at the NFL level this year are! *drum roll*

Geno Smith	West Virgina	BIG 12	Senior	1st Round
Matt Barkley	Southern California	PAC 12	Senior	1st Round
Landry Jones	Oklahoma	BIG 12	Redshirt Senior	2nd - 3rd Round

This is not my personal opinion, but this what the numbers tell you.

[MoormanRules8]

I always laugh when people talk about Parcells like he was some QB Guru....

With the Giants he inherited Phil Simms, with the Pats he inherited Drew Bledsoe, and with the Cowboys the only good QB he had was Romo which was a UDFA lightning in a bottle. He never was a QB guru, why do people spout off his formula like he was some aficionado of QBs wherever he went?

[WhenTheFitzHitsTheChan]

I always laugh when people talk about Parcells like he was some QB Guru....

With the Giants he inherited Phil Simms, with the Pats he inherited Drew Bledsoe, and with the Cowboys the only good QB he had was Romo which was a UDFA lightning in a bottle. He never was a QB guru, why do people spout off his formula like he was some aficionado of QBs wherever he went?

The only thing Parcells was good at was winning SB rings while simultaneously growing a nice set of tits.

[FloridaGatorsBuffaloBills]

Pretty good stuff.

It would be interesting to see the results if we were to take a prior quarterback class, like 2008-2009, and see what those results looked like and if the quarterbacks they say to draft a worth a **** today.

[SoulCrusher]

This can't be true.

I've already been told Ryan Nassib is the next Jim Kelly...

[Tates]

I always laugh when people talk about Parcells like he was some QB Guru....

With the Giants he inherited Phil Simms, with the Pats he inherited Drew Bledsoe, and with the Cowboys the only good QB he had was Romo which was a UDFA lightning in a bottle. He never was a QB guru, why do people spout off his formula like he was some aficionado of QBs wherever he went?

This formuala may have made sense back when Parcells was relevant - let's see how it applies to our eight finalists:

Manning - pass
Flacco - nope - Delaware (Rich Gannon went there too)

Brady - fail 2 year starter only (actually 1 2/3rds)
Schaub - Fail ACC

Kaepernick - fail - Nevada and 58% career (64% senior yr) - meets all other criteria
Rodgers - Fail - 2 years, JR, 18 wins

Wilson - ??? - meets all but was only in Big 10 one year - ACC three
Ryan - Fail - ACC 3/Big East 1

Based on this years final 8 teams, I would say this formula is an epic fail

[NOVABilliever]

Where do you get your top 3? What do you do? I mean, what's the weighting system after you've narrowed it down to the second-to-last table? Did you do wins per start and completion percentage?

[Luka_GoBills]

Pretty good stuff.

It would be interesting to see the results if we were to take a prior quarterback class, like 2008-2009, and see what those results looked like and if the quarterbacks they say to draft a worth a **** today.

I may undertake something like that at some point this weekend. Or at least go back through the first two rounds of a given year and see if the guys picked that high meet all these requirements.

And Moorman, considering you idolize a punter that we cut this year, I think I'll take the Tuna's evaluating technique over yours any day. It's an often quoted principle and wether you agree with it or not, it makes perfect sense. By the way, his technique would say Tony Romo wasn't "lightning in a bottle."

3 year starter, 62.8%, senior, graduate, more than 23 wins.

[AZbacker]

and the only one of those three we'd have a chance at is probably Landry Jones...

[Luka_GoBills]

This formuala may have made sense back when Parcells was relevant - let's see how it applies to our eight finalists:

Manning - pass
Flacco - nope - Delaware (Rich Gannon went there too)

Brady - fail 2 year starter only (actually 1 2/3rds)
Schaub - Fail ACC

Kaepernick - fail - Nevada and 58% career (64% senior yr) - meets all other criteria
Rodgers - Fail - 2 years, JR, 18 wins

Wilson - ??? - meets all but was only in Big 10 one year - ACC three
Ryan - Fail - ACC 3/Big East 1

Based on this years final 8 teams, I would say this formula is an epic fail

Your post is an epic fail.

This was a combination of Draft Metrics history of successful QBs, I used those percentages to narrow the field, and then applied the Parcells Rule and the 26,27.60 rule. There are three things going on here, sorry if I made your brain explode.

[MoormanRules8]

Where do you get your top 3? What do you do? I mean, what's the weighting system after you've narrowed it down to the second-to-last table? Did you do wins per start and completion percentage?

Wins and completions don't matter in determining a QB, what are you talking about?

[MoormanRules8]

Your post is an epic fail.

This was a combination of Draft Metrics history of successful QBs, I used those percentages to narrow the field, and then applied the Parcells Rule and the 26,27.60 rule. There are three things going on here, sorry if I made your brain explode.

No I think we all got what you were saying, and what he is saying is if the Bills applied your criteria to the drafts where these players were taken, they never would have been drafted by us because they don't meet the criteria. Therefore your criteria must be flawed as they are the 8 remaining playoff QBs and Rodgers, Brady and Ryan, and Wilson were four of the best QBS in the NFL this year. Schaub, Kapernick, and Flacco are all guys I would take in a heart beat.

[Homer Burp]

Pretty good stuff.

It would be interesting to see the results if we were to take a prior quarterback class, like 2008-2009, and see what those results looked like and if the quarterbacks they say to draft a worth a **** today.

This is an interesting thread.

I'd include ACC since Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub have been pretty good QB from there. Wilson too for the most part since he started at NC State.

[AZbacker]

Wins and completions don't matter in determining a QB, what are you talking about?

They mattered here...

[Luka_GoBills]

Where do you get your top 3? What do you do? I mean, what's the weighting system after you've narrowed it down to the second-to-last table? Did you do wins per start and completion percentage?

Ok, first I used the Draftmetric's history of successful QBs. It basically says a few conferences have had a ton more 5 year+ NFL starters over the past twenty years than others.

So I used that to narrow it down to the second table, which is only guys from those 4 conferences.

Then from there, they had to meet every rule to put them in the highest percentile of probable success.

So 27 starts, 60%+ completion percentage, 3 years or more starting and 23 wins or more.

[AZbacker]

Where do you get your top 3? What do you do? I mean, what's the weighting system after you've narrowed it down to the second-to-last table? Did you do wins per start and completion percentage?

the # of wins has to be above 23 or whatever

[Luka_GoBills]

No I think we all got what you were saying, and what he is saying is if the Bills applied your criteria to the drafts where these players were taken, they never would have been drafted by us because they don't meet the criteria. Therefore your criteria must be flawed as they are the 8 remaining playoff QBs and Rodgers, Brady and Ryan, and Wilson were four of the best QBS in the NFL this year. Schaub, Kapernick, and Flacco are all guys I would take in a heart beat.

Listen, you don't get it.

A) This is not my personal opinion, AS I SAID.
B) This is an exercise in very basic statistical analysis to narrow down a field of 20 guys. This is what our front office is moving towards.
C) We didn't draft anyone you speak of. So it's not if the Bills used this, it's more like it doesn't ****ing matter because we passed on them anyways.

[Luka_GoBills]

This is an interesting thread.

I'd include ACC since Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub have been pretty good QB from there. Wilson too for the most part since he started at NC State.

Again, I'm only going by the Draftmetrics article. This isn't anything I've formulated myself, I thought it would be interesting to see what our analytics department comes up with.

[crimsonavenger]

Thanks for the writeup Luka

[crimsonavenger]

The only thing Parcells was good at was winning SB rings while simultaneously growing a nice set of tits.