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Thread: Final 4 versus Nix drafts

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    Default Final 4 versus Nix drafts

    Buffalo Bills

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    So I was called out for declaring the tenure of Buddy Nix a failure after 3 years yesterday. Most of the negativity toward the post came from the draft pick argument that was made. I was asked to provide analysis from other teams not just the Bills. While the draft is just 1 part of a GMs job, I decided to go back and compare the Bills to the 4 remaining playoff teams (I did not have the time to provide info on all 32 teams). Most of my information was taken from the Pro football focus website. They have a section in the archives that deals with the analysis of all 32 teams (2008-2010 drafts). I added in the 2011 draft because their analysis was conducted in April of 2012.

    I provided the names of players deemed to have been hits. There are many other players that are considered role players or busts but I dont want this to turn into war and peace.

    49ers:

    Navarro Bowman lb 91st 2010, Mike Iupati OL 17th 2010, DE Aldon Smith 7th 2011 and QB C. Kaepernick (36th 2011). There are other productive players such as Crabtree that have been drafted but most are considered role players or did not live up to expectations. The list is short, but SF hit home runs on the 4 players mentioned.

    Falcons:

    Matt Ryan QB 3rd 2008, Curtis Lofton LB 37th 2008, Sean Weatherspoon LB 19th 2010, Julio Jones WR 6th 2011, Jacqizz Rogers RB 158 2011. Again the list is not long but Atlanta hit home runs on the Ryan and Jones combo.

    Ravens:

    Ladarius Webb CB 88th 2009, Joe Flacco QB 18th 2008, Ray Rice RB 55th 2008, Dennis Pitta TE 114th 2010, Paul Krueger DE 57th 2009, Jimmy Smith CB 27th 2011, Torrey Smith WR 58th 2011 and Michael Oher OT 23rd 2009. The list is longer for the Ravens and the most important picks have been Rice and Flacco.

    Patriots:

    Rob Gronkowski TE 42nd 2010, Aaron Hernandez TE 113th 2010, Brandon Spikes LB 62nd 2010, Sebastian Vollmer OT 58th 2009, Jerod Mayo LB 10th 2008, Devin McCourty CB 27th 2010, Nate Soldier OT 17th 2011, Shane Vareen RB 56th 2011, Stevan Ridley RB 73rd 2011. Again the list is longer with some very solid players.

    Bills:

    From Nix era: CJ Spiller RB 9th 2010, M. Dareus 3rd 2011, D. Searcy 100th 2011 and A. Carrington 72nd 2010. Only 1 homerun so far in the Spiller pick.

    Previous regime: S. Johnson 224th 2008, J. Byrd 42nd 2009, A. Levitre 51st 2009, E. Wood 28th 2009 and D. Bell 219th 2008. Certainly more production has come from the previous regime, however they have the advantage of time on their side for player development.

    In sum, my complaints about Nix and the draft were not enough bang for the buck (he has had 3 top 10 picks and high 2nd and 3rd round selections). Also, I asked where are his late round gems? The previous regime had several and the drafts with Nix have been lacking in that department. What do the final 4 teams have? Well 3 of the 4 hit on QBs and the Patriots have had Brady. That is probably the biggest difference. Unfortunately, with all the draft picks Nix has had the past 3 years he found it acceptable to utilize only one 7th rd pick on a QB. And I think Bills fans would feel better if Nix had made better selections in rds 2-4 in lieu of taking a QB. Unfortunately, those picks have been lackluster to say the least. Nix made no bones about stating the draft would be the most important part of building the Bills and he was advertised as a draft guru. Thus far, I just dont see how he has distinguished himself as a top notch drafter. Lack of foresight on his part has put the Bills in a tough spot. Fans want a QB desperately that can compete with the other franchise quarterbacks. The pressure is on now and this draft appears to lack any elite top 5 pick worthy qbs. There are a bunch of solid prospects but it will be no easy task finding a franchise qb this year. Lets just hope the organization does not force a top qb pick just to say we got one".

  2. #2
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    Great post

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    I agree. But, to be honest with you, I think Nix is going to retire/leave at the end of this draft. It seems as if all signs are pointing towards that conclusion. Not only that, we still need to see how these players can live up with a newer, what looks to be a better, coaching staff. Chan and his staff simply could not coach most of these players successfully. Wait and see what happens.

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    Nix's regime gave Stevie Johnson the chance though...Bell is gone.

    Searcy is gonna be battling for a spot for SS. Perhaps Aaron Williams can find his game at safety? I think AW can be a very solid SS. He has the Size, good tackling, hard hitting, and coverage abilities needed for a SS especially since he has some of that CB background. So he's not a complete failure yet.

    Dareus is a good pick and gets a decent amount of sacks for a DT. Was just a shady year for him.

    Carrington played pretty well with the chances he got this year and blocked 4 FGs....
    Da'Rick got cut and was given less chances than Chris Hogan....No comment.
    Hopefully the Bills can carry my casket at my funeral so they can let me down one last time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SpillerDownTheSideline View Post
    Nix's regime gave Stevie Johnson the chance though...Bell is gone.

    Searcy is gonna be battling for a spot for SS. Perhaps Aaron Williams can find his game at safety? I think AW can be a very solid SS. He has the Size, good tackling, hard hitting, and coverage abilities needed for a SS especially since he has some of that CB background. So he's not a complete failure yet.

    Dareus is a good pick and gets a decent amount of sacks for a DT. Was just a shady year for him.

    Carrington played pretty well with the chances he got this year and blocked 4 FGs....
    I don't believe his drafts have been awful and there is still time for players to develop. I was expecting more from Nix (as far as draft picks go) when he came in. His top 10 picks have not busted, but you should hit on those picks. He is not a cap guy and did a poor job of picking our first coach, so he needs to do very well in the draft to be considered a solid GM.

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    The general consensus around here is that our coaches sucked and didn't get the most out of their players...Flip side, the Harbaughs and Hoodie are regarded as some of the best coaches in the NFL.

    Drafting players is only part of the equation...developing them and putting them in positions to succeed is just as important, if not more so. So not sure this is really an apt comparison when trying to judge Buddy Nix...the bills, maybe, but not Nix.

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    Well this is really unfair... You should do this with players drafting while Nix was at the helm so from 2010 and 2011.... Comparing Nix's drafts to players he never had a shot at drafting is really unfair...

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    Quote Originally Posted by mikey152 View Post
    The general consensus around here is that our coaches sucked and didn't get the most out of their players...Flip side, the Harbaughs and Hoodie are regarded as some of the best coaches in the NFL.

    Drafting players is only part of the equation...developing them and putting them in positions to succeed is just as important, if not more so. So not sure this is really an apt comparison when trying to judge Buddy Nix...the bills, maybe, but not Nix.
    Nix failed on his HC choice and getting a QB in here. That's not good.
    Originally Posted by lilfaith24
    Tuel is not a bad QB,you just have no clue.

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    I personally just do not care what ya think
    Woods, Williams and Watkins.... the 3 double U's

    Made in USA NFL gear...
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    You may think it is unfair, but I was asked to provide a draft comparison from other NFL organizations. It is hard to go back just 2 years. Plus, we get an idea of what Modrak and company drafts look in comparison to Nix and his drafts. Again, Modrak has more time on his side but it is still interesting to compare.

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    spiller, troup, carrington
    dareus, williams, shep
    gilmore, glenn, graham


    looking at these names, it's hard to argue with nix's thinking in the draft. that's 9 players that could/should be starters. obviously, the jury is still out on some...

    looking back though,

    subsitute kap. for williams

    -or-

    wilson for graham

    then i would say nix drafted A+, since he didn't i'll give him a B/B+

    the thing to remember is nix has stated he is not interested in swinging and missing on a qb

    has he missed ? yes. has he swung? no, however if he hits a home run at the qb position this year or next, all should be gravy in terms of his drafting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nutts252 View Post
    spiller, troup, carrington
    dareus, williams, shep
    gilmore, glenn, graham


    looking at these names, it's hard to argue with nix's thinking in the draft. that's 9 players that could/should be starters. obviously, the jury is still out on some...

    looking back though,

    subsitute kap. for williams

    -or-

    wilson for graham

    then i would say nix drafted A+, since he didn't i'll give him a B/B+

    the thing to remember is nix has stated he is not interested in swinging and missing on a qb

    has he missed ? yes. has he swung? no, however if he hits a home run at the qb position this year or next, all should be gravy in terms of his drafting.
    Unfortunately, Nix did not pull the trigger on Wilson or Kap. Since he has not hit a home run on the qb he needed to hit some home runs at other positions (Spiller only 1 so far and that is a position many teams find gems in the later rds)

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    Overall, I think his drafts have been a C+. If the 2012 class comes together as expected, that grade could easily go into the B range. The F Nix gets for Gailey is what brings him down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by racketmaster View Post
    Unfortunately, Nix did not pull the trigger on Wilson or Kap. Since he has not hit a home run on the qb he needed to hit some home runs at other positions (Spiller only 1 so far and that is a position many teams find gems in the later rds)
    it's hard to judge the last two drafts fairly at this point, but i think arguments could be made for dareus, gilmore and glenn as bcoming home runs also....

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    Quote Originally Posted by racketmaster View Post
    Overall, I think his drafts have been a C+. If the 2012 class comes together as expected, that grade could easily go into the B range. The F Nix gets for Gailey is what brings him down.
    i was focusing on his draft grade, but ..

    obviously the gailey hire deserves a low mark, however when you are looking at a test that looks like :

    who should i hire ?
    a. gailey
    b. nobody

    he should score better than an 'f' mark when these are about the only 2 options that were available to him

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    What we want is for Nix to take more chances, but only as long as they all result in homeruns. Am I right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nutts252 View Post
    i was focusing on his draft grade, but ..

    obviously the gailey hire deserves a low mark, however when you are looking at a test that looks like :

    who should i hire ?
    a. gailey
    b. nobody

    he should score better than an 'f' mark when these are about the only 2 options that were available to him
    That's BS. Billick and Haslett wanted the job. There were others besides Gailey that would have come here. Maybe not a lot, but those two would have been better choices.
    Originally Posted by lilfaith24
    Tuel is not a bad QB,you just have no clue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freakhead View Post
    What we want is for Nix to take more chances, but only as long as they all result in homeruns. Am I right?
    he does take chances-moving up to get Troupe and Graham. I hope Whaley and Marrone have most of the control with this draft-esp. the QB.
    Originally Posted by lilfaith24
    Tuel is not a bad QB,you just have no clue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jm2009 View Post
    he does take chances-moving up to get Troupe and Graham. I hope Whaley and Marrone have most of the control with this draft-esp. the QB.
    He didn't move up for Troup, he just severely overdrafted him. Graham was the first time he ever traded in the draft. Too bad he misspelled "Russell Wilson" when he wrote it on the card!
    When the Bills hired Jauron and Gailey, the team's misfortunes were 100% predictable. At least Marrone has a chance to succeed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackington View Post
    He didn't move up for Troup, he just severely overdrafted him. Graham was the first time he ever traded in the draft. Too bad he misspelled "Russell Wilson" when he wrote it on the card!
    Let's hope this offseason we finally get a good QB in here.
    Originally Posted by lilfaith24
    Tuel is not a bad QB,you just have no clue.

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