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Thread: Analytics of the Bills drafts under Buddy Nix

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    Default Analytics of the Bills drafts under Buddy Nix

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    I know this will have some holes in it but bored at work so figured I'd give it a shot. I'm gonna start broad and then try and narrow it down to the first round pick:

    *All three of Buddy's first round draft picks have been from states considered in the South. Not necessarily SEC school, just schools that are in "south states". In fact, 20 of 27 (74%) total picks in three years under Buddy Nix have been from states considered the south. Nix has said he likes to scout and draft players from the south because he believes their faster, stronger and more athletic.

    *All three of of our 1st round picks under Buddy have either started or played significant time for more than one year. Meaning no one year wonders. (Spiller played 4 years, Dareus played 3 and Gilmore played 3).

    *All three of our 1st round picks have replaced guys who weren't on the Bills roster the next year. (Spiller replaced Lynch, Dareus replaced Stroud, Gilmore replaced Florence). So to me, looks like the Bills use the #1 pick to try and upgrade a position, which Buddy has even said himself before in the past.

    *None of our 1st round picks have been considered "reaches" and all were considered BPA and not taken specifically for need. Something else Buddy has said they do not want to do with their first pick.

    *Both Buddy and Doug Whaley have said this off season that they are really looking at quarterbacks, wide receivers and linebackers.

    Here is a list from CBS Sports ranking players who they consider to be 1st round prospects or possible 1st round prospects:

    1 *Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M
    2 *Bjoern Werner DE Florida State
    3 Chance Warmack OG Alabama
    4 *Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M
    5 *Dee Milliner CB Alabama
    6 Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan
    7 *Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
    8 *Barkevious Mingo DE lSU
    9 Star Lotulelei DT Utah
    10 *Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri
    11 Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma
    12 *Keenan Allen WR California
    13 Kenny Vaccaro FS Texas
    14 Geno Smith QB West Virginia
    15 Dion JordanInjured DE Oregon
    16 Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina
    17 *Sam Montgomery DE LSU
    18 *Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State
    19 Matt Barkley QB Southern California
    20 *Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
    21 Ezekiel Ansah DE Brigham Young
    22 *Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State
    23 *Alec Ogletree OLB Georgia
    24 Jesse Williams DT Alabama
    25 *Zach Ertz TE Stanford
    26 *Sharrif Floyd DT Florida
    27 Alex Okafor DE Texas
    28 *D.J. Fluker OT Alabama
    29 Datone Jones DE UCLA
    30 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
    31 *Kevin Minter ILB LSU
    32 Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State
    33 Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame
    34 *DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson
    35 Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State
    36 John Jenkins DT Georgia
    37 Tavon Austin WR West Virginia
    38 *Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame
    39 *Robert Woods WR Southern California
    40 *Eric Reid FS 2 LSU

    So if we take the criteria from above and eliminate guys from this list who 1) Aren't from the south, haven't started or played for multiple years, could possibly replace or take someone else's job, wouldn't be considered BPA, and aren't a QB, WR, or LB we have:

    2 *Bjoern Werner DE Florida State
    4 *Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M
    7 *Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
    8 *Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
    17 *Sam Montgomery DE LSU
    23 *Alec Ogletree OLB Georgia
    30 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
    32 Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State


    I left some of the DE's because I think some of them could be considered 3-4 OLB's that we will likely run some this year. Another pass rusher is starting to grow on me. I think Kelsay's days are over in Buffalo and even if Kyle Moore is re-signed that only gives us 3 DE's and none of them outside of Mario has played or been successful playing in a 3-4 defense. To me finding a guy who can put his hand in the dirt and play a 4-3 DE but then also stand up a play a 3-4 OLB will be crucial for our defense this year.

    I know this isn't probably a great way of using analytic's but figured I'd give it a try.
    Last edited by FloridaGatorsBuffaloBills; 01-24-2013 at 03:12 PM.
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  2. #2

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    Could be between Alec Ogletree & Codarrelle Patterson when it's all said and done. Fit huge needs, supremely athletic, great size, SEC, BPA, versatility.

  3. #3
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    Nix is easy to read IMO. I did this also and my top 5 Buddy Nix board is..

    #1 Jarvis Jones OLB/DE Georgia
    #2 Bjoern Werner DE/OLB Florida State
    #3 Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU
    #4 Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M
    #5 Alec Ogletree OLB Georgia
    Last edited by DaBills4Life; 01-24-2013 at 12:04 PM.

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    If Keenan Allen is on the board and we don't take him, I'll be pretty upset.
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    I would imagine, as far as QB's go....he might throw the "South" requirement out the window. There are other intangibles for that postion other than being the fastest or the biggest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DaBills4Life View Post
    Nix is easy to read IMO. I did this also and my top 5 Buddy Nix board is..

    #1 Jarvis Jones OLB/DE Georgia
    #2 Bjoern Werner DE/OLB Florida State
    #3 Barkevious Mingo DE/OLB LSU
    #4 Damontre Moore DE/OLB Texas A&M
    #5 Alec Ogletree OLB Georgia
    These aren't bad... I wouldn't eliminate Milliner from the list though!
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    nice break down, agreed that there are holes, but you used some sound trends to try and narrow it.

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    You have done a good breakdown, and it probably aligns very closely to what Buddy will have on his piece of paper come draft day

    2 *Bjoern Werner DE Florida State
    4 *Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M
    7 *Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
    8 *Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
    17 *Sam Montgomery DE LSU
    20 *Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
    23 *Alec Ogletree OLB Georgia
    30 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
    32 Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State


    Maybe you throw in Dee Milliner, DB even though it is the "wrong" position. But he does fell into BPA and would replace someone at Corner.

    I kinda of hope Buddy doesn't talk about Jarvis Jones at all during the next 3 months and then drafts him.
    Or, moves down and drafts Wilson or Glennon. I would be nervous about Cordarrelle Patterson as BPA.

    Would welcome either of the DEs.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by intimidatortj View Post
    You have done a good breakdown, and it probably aligns very closely to what Buddy will have on his piece of paper come draft day

    2 *Bjoern Werner DE Florida State
    4 *Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M
    7 *Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia
    8 *Barkevious Mingo DE LSU
    17 *Sam Montgomery DE LSU
    20 *Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee
    23 *Alec Ogletree OLB Georgia
    30 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
    32 Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State


    Maybe you throw in Dee Milliner, DB even though it is the "wrong" position. But he does fell into BPA and would replace someone at Corner.

    I kinda of hope Buddy doesn't talk about Jarvis Jones at all during the next 3 months and then drafts him.
    Or, moves down and drafts Wilson or Glennon. I would be nervous about Cordarrelle Patterson as BPA.

    Would welcome either of the DEs.
    I think the Bills go after a corner in free agency. We need some good veteran leadership there with an already very young group of corners. I'd like to see them go out and get a top notch corner and then draft another one in the later rounds. Can't imagine them bringing back McGee or McKelvin.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeFergusonFan View Post
    I would imagine, as far as QB's go....he might throw the "South" requirement out the window. There are other intangibles for that postion other than being the fastest or the biggest.
    Yea, I thought the same thing because I think they like Barkley. But, a lot of people don't like the thought of taking a guy from sunny southern Cal and putting him Buffalo type weather.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FloridaGatorsBuffaloBills View Post
    Yea, I thought the same thing because I think they like Barkley. But, a lot of people don't like the thought of taking a guy from sunny southern Cal and putting him Buffalo type weather.
    Didn't prevent Green Bay from taking a Cali kid and putting him in Wisconsin.

    Furthermore, I would like to think Buffalo is high on Barkley but Wilson and Glennon make a lot more sense with the breakdown this thread gives.

    Guys like Werner and Moore will most likely not be there for Buffalo.
    Jarvis Jones- Has back issues, if the medical clears the kid then maybe, however look at Troup (I Understand there is a weight difference) and how chronic a back injury truly can be.
    Sam Montgomery- http://thebiglead.fantasysportsven.n...couts-list.jpg seeing that erased his name off of my list in a heart beat and should be the same for most pro teams.

    Thus, I think we should be seriously invested in Mingo or Ogletree if Buffalo does go defense.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillsFan View Post
    Didn't prevent Green Bay from taking a Cali kid and putting him in Wisconsin.

    Furthermore, I would like to think Buffalo is high on Barkley but Wilson and Glennon make a lot more sense with the breakdown this thread gives.

    Guys like Werner and Moore will most likely not be there for Buffalo.
    Jarvis Jones- Has back issues, if the medical clears the kid then maybe, however look at Troup (I Understand there is a weight difference) and how chronic a back injury truly can be.
    Sam Montgomery- http://thebiglead.fantasysportsven.n...couts-list.jpg seeing that erased his name off of my list in a heart beat and should be the same for most pro teams.

    Thus, I think we should be seriously invested in Mingo or Ogletree if Buffalo does go defense.
    Green Bay doesn't have the swirling wind like Buffalo does, that's the difference. Green Bay it's just bitterly cold.

    Mingo's 4.5 sacks this year worries me. I know last year he had 8.0 but to me to warrant a top 10 pick you have to consistently put up 8-10+ sacks.
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    How is patterson not a one year wonder. Only played 1 year of major college football?

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    Cordarrelle Patterson doesn't fit into the criteria. Juco transfer with 1 year at Tennessee. His highlight reel is nuts but the only person crazy enough to take him at #8 is 6 ft underground.

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    It wouldn't surprise me if ou pick is on the rest of this list though

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    Quote Originally Posted by bills_fan46 View Post
    How is patterson not a one year wonder. Only played 1 year of major college football?
    Quote Originally Posted by jdonley1180 View Post
    Cordarrelle Patterson doesn't fit into the criteria. Juco transfer with 1 year at Tennessee. His highlight reel is nuts but the only person crazy enough to take him at #8 is 6 ft underground.
    I know, I thought about taking his name down but I couldn't decide whether to count Juco or not. Probably shouldn't so I'll take it down because I'm sure there were other guys I took off who played Juco.
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    mike glennon is another statue like bledsoe and we dont need to go that route again !

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    Quote Originally Posted by MoormanRules8 View Post
    nice break down, agreed that there are holes, but you used some sound trends to try and narrow it.
    Agree - OP nails it - that is the way I see it if, if Nix is still calling the shots. If Brandon and Marrone are really in charge - we gabbert, er grab a QB that has 2nd or third round talent.
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    Quote Originally Posted by FloridaGatorsBuffaloBills View Post
    Yea, I thought the same thing because I think they like Barkley. But, a lot of people don't like the thought of taking a guy from sunny southern Cal and putting him Buffalo type weather.
    I'm one of those people who would really like drafting Barkley, but I don't know why people assume Nix really likes him. A lot of people say this. Can you provide some insight as to why you believe this?

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    He doesnt think they are Bigger and stronger just because they're from the South. He believes that the SEC is a better conference and more competitive so players from the sec are more prepared for NFL level football.

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