Alex Smith vs a Rookie QB - a stats projection

[jrober38]

If the Bills want to compete at the highest possible level next year, I believe they should trade for Alex Smith because I'm almost certain he'll play QB at a higher level than any rookie QB we can draft.

Over the past 4 years, this is the list of rookie QBs who threw more than 200 passes their first season.

Ryan Tannehill - 76.1
Brandon Weeden - 72.4
Russell Wilson - 100
Nick Foles - 79.1
Blaine Gabbert - 65.4
Christian Ponder - 70.1
Andy Dalton - 80.4
Jimmy Clausen - 58.4
Colt McCoy - 74.5
Mark Sanchez - 63
Josh Freeman - 59.8

Over the past 4 years, Alex Smith has posted QB ratings of 82, 82, 90 and 104 and has improved his YPA and TD:Int ratio every season.

Even if Smith doesn't match the numbers he put up under Harbaugh, I still think it's extremely likely that he'll finish a season under the Bills with a QB rating in the 82-89 range.

On the flip side, based on the way rookie QBs usually struggle when asked to start in year 1, I think a fair assumption is that they'll finish their rookie season with a QB Rating in the range of 69-79.

Simply put, if the Bills want to compete next year, they would be much better off trading for a vet like Alex Smith than they would be drafting and starting a rookie QB.

Discuss.

[mdemay4444]

Agreed

[54 spielman]

So merely arguing the same point in 1.000 threads wasn't good enough? Now you have to start your own thread repeating the same nonsense?

You seriously need a hobby, hopefully one that takes you away from this board for a while.

[DaBills4Life]

ANy Bills fan that doesnt want Alex Smith is crazy.

[Grundy208]

I agree. This team is in a position to win now. That's why Gailey was fired. He didn't win now. I like the idea of getting Smith (hopefully for no more than a third) and letting a rookie sit behind him until the rookie is ready. To be most successful next season, I see no better way.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Alex Smith is the product of a great system in San Fran, can't deny that. Much like Fitz under Chan.

If a rookie fits Marrone's system better than Smith does, you go with the rookie.

[Thurman#1]

If the Bills want to compete at the highest possible level next year, I believe they should trade for Alex Smith because I'm almost certain he'll play QB at a higher level than any rookie QB we can draft.

Over the past 4 years, this is the list of rookie QBs who threw more than 200 passes their first season.

Ryan Tannehill - 76.1
Brandon Weeden - 72.4
Russell Wilson - 100
Nick Foles - 79.1
Blaine Gabbert - 65.4
Christian Ponder - 70.1
Andy Dalton - 80.4
Jimmy Clausen - 58.4
Colt McCoy - 74.5
Mark Sanchez - 63
Josh Freeman - 59.8

Over the past 4 years, Alex Smith has posted QB ratings of 82, 82, 90 and 104 and has improved his YPA and TD:Int ratio every season.

Even if Smith doesn't match the numbers he put up under Harbaugh, I still think it's extremely likely that he'll finish a season under the Bills with a QB rating in the 82-89 range.

On the flip side, based on the way rookie QBs usually struggle when asked to start in year 1, I think a fair assumption is that they'll finish their rookie season with a QB Rating in the range of 69-79.

Simply put, if the Bills want to compete next year, they would be much better off trading for a vet like Alex Smith than they would be drafting and starting a rookie QB.

Discuss.

Next year matters very little. Getting the right guy in place for the long run, that matters.

And for the record, I'd love to have them get Alex Smith. And then draft a young guy for development and eventual competition.

The Bills are very unlikely to compete for the Super Bowl next year no matter what they do. The first year they are competitive for the Super Bowl ... that should be the year to worry about having the right QB in place and ready to go.

[DaBills4Life]

Alex Smith is the product of a great system in San Fran, can't deny that. Much like Fitz under Chan.

If a rookie fits Marrone's system better than Smith does, you go with the rookie.

He doesnt throw many INT's. I dont think he is a top QB like his rating indicates, but he is an upgrade. Even before Harbuagh he was decent, just not like he is now.

[LEBills]

We should just never draft a quarterback ever

[Da Bills]

We should just never draft a quarterback ever

I agree lets keep getting other teams reject qbs.

[Airseven]

FACT: Smith is better than Fitzpatrick and would perform better next season than any of this year's rookie QBs.

[FloridaGatorsBuffaloBills]

When Buddy was asked about our quarterback situation during Russ's New Years press conference he flat our said "Well, we may get one in free agency." That right there told me that their flirting with the possiblilty of signing a free agent quarterback or trading for one. Only four quarterbacks I would consider looking at in free agency and thats Vick, Smith, Moore and MAYBE Campbell.

I really believe Buddy wants to draft a quarterback but one that he can let sit behind a veteran for 1-2 years before being asked to be the starter.

[Da Bills]

FACT: Smith is better than Fitzpatrick and would perform better next season than any of this year's rookie QBs.

Yea that's a fact, lol. More like that's an opinion.

[Airseven]

Yea that's a fact, lol. More like that's an opinion.

Wait a second, so are you arguing the point? Do you think Fitzpatrick is better than Alex Smith? Do you think one of these rookie QBs will be better next season than Alex Smith? Please put that in writing, if so.

[jrober38]

Yea that's a fact, lol. More like that's an opinion.

The stats of rookie QBs over the past four years indicate it's almost a certainty.

Alex Smith hasn't posted a QB rating below 81 in any of the past four years.

In that same time, only ONE QB has posted a higher QB rating than that (Russell Wilson).

Odds a very much in the favor of Smith being the best QB for the Bills next year.

[jrober38]

So merely arguing the same point in 1.000 threads wasn't good enough? Now you have to start your own thread repeating the same nonsense?

You seriously need a hobby, hopefully one that takes you away from this board for a while.

Typical response for someone who has no stats or facts to disprove my argument.

LMFAO

[MarshawnLynch#23]

ANy Bills fan that doesnt want Alex Smith is crazy.

Hahaha! How many games you see him play? I've seen almost every game he's played. He's been benched numerous times. He got replaced by a ROOKIE QB. Come on. He takes a ton of sacks. he's scared to take chances, hence why his turnover ratio is down. The 49ers rookie QB has them averaging a TD more a game since he took over for Smith. Also, Smith struggles throwing into any type of wind. You can call me crazy, I'll pass on Smith.

[wiskibreth]

Look, the QB situation sucks no matter how you slice it next season.

They've got to get rid of Fitz. They have to know he's not going to give them any better performance than he has the past 3 seasons. And for that reason they're not going to pay him his $7.5M -cap be ****ed.

So, they NEED a Veteran presence in there who can play well enough to get them through the season should a rookie bust. They need that insurance.

I absolutely believe they need to draft one of the higher rate prospects. Don't know who that will be. My preference would be Wilson, Nassib, Barkley -in that order. EJ Manuel intrigues me as well.

That said, Alex Smith would be an excellent choice for that insurance. Matt Moore, sure. Jason Campbell also.

Point is; people seem to be arguing one or the other. The fact is; they NEED to make BOTH moves for this team to have any chance of success.

[billsinbahamas]

Wow i cant believe ppl actually want alex freakin smith....wow....a decade of losing and ppl still want a loser qb....wow...i just dont get it...

Even if he MIGHT be better next year wont that be a year the rookie could be getting valuable playing time and experience?

Im sorry but we need to move forward and that doesnt include a washed up former first overall pick who got his job taken by a 2nd year qb....he might be better than fitz but not by much....hell put fitz on that niners team with
harbaugh coaching and who knows..

Please people lets move forward with new blood at qb no more re treads

[wiskibreth]

Hahaha! How many games you see him play? I've seen almost every game he's played. He's been benched numerous times. He got replaced by a ROOKIE QB. Come on. He takes a ton of sacks. he's scared to take chances, hence why his turnover ratio is down. The 49ers rookie QB has them averaging a TD more a game since he took over for Smith. Also, Smith struggles throwing into any type of wind. You can call me crazy, I'll pass on Smith.

And yet he was still good enough to get them into the NFC Championship game last season, and the 49rs were 6-2 up until Smith took the concussion vs. St. Louis. You don;t win that many gams when your QB sucks. Sorry, your argument doesn't hold water.

He wasn't replaced by a "rookie", he got replaced by a 2nd year project because it was by Harbaugh's design. He was just waiting for an opportunity to showcase "his" guy. The one HE selected. He was just waiting on the right opportunity and the injury gave it to him. Kaepernick proved him right, and the rest is history.