Alex Smith vs a Rookie QB - a stats projection

[LEBills]

There are no QBs worth a top 10 pick in this draft.

Ridiculous, what qualifies a QB to be a top 10 pick to you?

Because there are a few QBs I think could be worth that pick.

[rhinocoach]

Ridiculous, what qualifies a QB to be a top 10 pick to you?

Because there are a few QBs I think could be worth that pick.

Would you exchange any one of our first round picks over the last 3 years for Andy Dalton or Russel Wilson or Colin Kaepernick?

I sure as hell would.

[rhinocoach]

You make it sound like the guy hasn't had success in that role.

New flash; he's 19-5 as a starter the last 2 years operating as a very effective game manager who limits turnovers and makes enough plays when he has to.

Of the 12 teams in the playoffs, the Ravens, Bengals, Texans, Seahawks, Vikings and 49ers all got there by running the football and playing stingy D.

Bring that mentality to Buffalo, commit to running the ball, limit turnovers and get some real defensive play makers and I see no reason we can't replicate that model.

you can use the exact same argument to trade for Matt Cassell because he was part of a sucessful Patriots team.
Difference is we don't have the proof of 2-3 years of Alex Smith playing for the Chiefs.

[LEBills]

Would you exchange any one of our first round picks over the last 3 years for Andy Dalton or Russel Wilson or Colin Kaepernick?

I sure as hell would.

Haha dude I agree, in fact I wanted all of them and there are several quarterbacks I'd be fine taking at 8 year.

[rhinocoach]

1. Whether or not the ball was in his hands is irrelevant. The goal isn't to be flashy on offense. It's to win games and he can clearly do that because he doesn't make mistakes.

2. If the defense doesn't improve considerably we CANNOT be dominant. EVER. Taking care of the ball and playing stingy defense (allowing less than 20 ppg) is a tried and true recipe for success. Give or take, HALF the teams who make the playoffs every year follow that model, and they play in a variety of climates.

3. There's no guarantee a rookie works out. Of the QBs on the orginial list I posted, only Russell Wilson looks like a guaranteed long time starter, Ryan Tannehill has shown promise and everyone else looks like total garbage. To do the math for you, 1 out of 11 guys looks good (9.1%) and one more guy has promise. Those are pretty terrible odds.

by your own plan we should forget about Alex Smith and chase after Matt Cassel in hopes he plays like he did in '08

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/...44/matt-cassel

[rhinocoach]

There are no QBs worth a top 10 pick in this draft.

Never heard this before...
would you rather Stephon Gilmore or Russel Wilson?

[LINDA_D]

If the Bills want to compete at the highest possible level next year, I believe they should trade for Alex Smith because I'm almost certain he'll play QB at a higher level than any rookie QB we can draft.

Over the past 4 years, this is the list of rookie QBs who threw more than 200 passes their first season.

Ryan Tannehill - 76.1
Brandon Weeden - 72.4
Russell Wilson - 100
Nick Foles - 79.1
Blaine Gabbert - 65.4
Christian Ponder - 70.1
Andy Dalton - 80.4
Jimmy Clausen - 58.4
Colt McCoy - 74.5
Mark Sanchez - 63
Josh Freeman - 59.8

Over the past 4 years, Alex Smith has posted QB ratings of 82, 82, 90 and 104 and has improved his YPA and TD:Int ratio every season.

Even if Smith doesn't match the numbers he put up under Harbaugh, I still think it's extremely likely that he'll finish a season under the Bills with a QB rating in the 82-89 range.

On the flip side, based on the way rookie QBs usually struggle when asked to start in year 1, I think a fair assumption is that they'll finish their rookie season with a QB Rating in the range of 69-79.

Simply put, if the Bills want to compete next year, they would be much better off trading for a vet like Alex Smith than they would be drafting and starting a rookie QB.

Discuss.

The stats of rookie QBs over the past four years indicate it's almost a certainty.

Alex Smith hasn't posted a QB rating below 81 in any of the past four years.

In that same time, only ONE QB has posted a higher QB rating than that (Russell Wilson).

Odds a very much in the favor of Smith being the best QB for the Bills next year.

Talk about making stats fit your argument! Missing from your list are: Sam Bradford (76.5), Cam Newton (84.5), Andrew Luck (76.5), and Robert Griffin III (102.4). All had 200+ attempts.

Furthermore, the data for the last 5 years (or even going back to 2005) includes two very good rookie QBs: Matt Ryan (87.7) and Joe Flacco (80.3).

Now, let's look Alex Smith's career stats for reference:

Year	Passes	Attempts	Pct	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
2005	84	165	50.9	0875	01	11	40.8
2006	257	442	58.1	2890	16	16	74.8
2007	94	193	48.7	0914	02	04	57.2
2008	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2009	225	372	60.5	2350	18	12	81.5
2010	204	342	59.6	2370	14	10	82.1
2011	273	445	71.1	3144	17	5	90.7
2012	153	218	70.2	1737	13	5	104.1

FTR, Smith has only played a full season in 2006 and 2011. He also missed all of 2008 with an injury.

Now, I don't necessarily give a rat's furry behind about individual stats if a team wins, but Smith never QB'd an NFL team to a winning record, much less to the playoffs, until 2011. The best he did was in 2009 when the Niners went 8-8. Now, to be fair, Smith's early Niners teams sucked monkey balls but so did Bradford's Rams and Newton's Panthers NOT to mention many of the teams that other rookies played for. It's a fact that all QBs, even Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, need protection and targets, and that good offensive schemes can make even mediocre QBs more effective. As the Niners added more talent, Smith's individual stats started improving but is that a surprise? Not really.

Since the name of the game in the NFL isn't really about individual stats, especially QBR, but about making the playoffs (and maybe the Super Bowl), let's look at the rookie QBs who didn't play on crappy teams. I was kind of surprised by how many rookie QBs since 2005 (when Smith came into the NFL), have taken their teams to the playoffs:

2005 - Kyle Orton, 4th rounder, Chicago Bears.
2008- Matt Ryan, 1st rounder, Atlanta Falcons (#3).
2008- Joe Flacco, 1st rounder, Baltimore Ravens (#18).
2009- Mark Sanchez, 1st rounder, New York Jets (#5).
2011- Andy Dalton, 2nd rounder, Cincinatti Bengals.
2012- Andrew Luck, 1st rounder, Indianapolis Colts (#1).
2012- Russell Wilson, 3rd rounder, Seattle Seahawks.
2012- Robert Griffin III, 1st rounder, Washington Redskins (#2).

If the Bills want to compete at the highest level, they need to add to their defense via FA and the draft, and pick up a young QB in the draft, even if he's NOT a first rounder. Tom Brady (6th round) took the Pats to the Super Bowl as a green 2nd year QB. Ben Roethlisberger (#11) took Pitt to 15-1 as a rookie, and then to a Super Bowl win as a sophomore. Colin Kaepernick (2nd round) put Smith on the bench as a green sophomore and has San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

A good ground game and a top defense has repeatedly worked to get teams into the playoffs even when their QBing is NOT great. If a young QB is a good leader and the team around him is good enough and lucky enough, he might take his team even further even if his stats aren't spectacular.

IMO, it would be foolish to waste a draft pick on a veteran QB like Smith who has NOT proven that he can be a franchise QB despite given plenty of opportunities because he was the first over all pick in 2005.

[Herb]

ANy Bills fan that doesnt want Alex Smith is crazy.

color me bat-sh**

[jrober38]

Ridiculous, what qualifies a QB to be a top 10 pick to you?

Because there are a few QBs I think could be worth that pick.

Elite arm strength, accuracy, leadership, decision making and intelligence.

None of the guys in this draft can check all those boxes.

[LINDA_D]

You gotta remember that those numbers are based on a very conservative style of play...the rating looks good, but that doesn't tell the whole story. He is also behind a better line and usually played in better conditions in a weaker division.

I don't wanna give up a pick and use him as a stop gap...I'd rather trade for Flynn who could be a boom or bust, or even pick up Vick after he's released.

Personally, I would go LB or WR in the first round depending on what we do in free agency, and then trade back up for a Wilson or Glennon if we can and ride with them.

It's not about next year, it's about finding the guy for the foreseeable future, and who will give you a legit shot to win it all year after year, so I couldn't care less if his numbers will be better in 2013...will he better in 2014, 2015, and beyond.

This narrow minded thinking is what OBD has been doing with little success...time to plan for the future.

I wouldn't trade for Flynn either. He's even more of a shooting star than Smith. He's Kevin Kolb.

That said, you're statement about narrow minded (I'd say short-sighted, but it's the pretty much the same thing) is dead on.

Fitzpatrick 2012 QB rating: 83.3
Smith 2010 (pre-Harbaugh) QB rating: 82.1

Sorry but Smith is not worth trading for. He isn't great, Harbaugh is.

I'm all in for trading for Harbaugh ...

And I think we need to draft a top 3 QB in this draft while signing Matt Moore.

Moore did more to help a much worse Dolphins team win than what Smith did to put W's on the board for San Fran.

I don't know that he's much better than Fitzpatrick but at least the Bills wouldn't have to give up a pick to get him, so he's better than Smith.

Should've included one of these guys - /sarcasm - I guess.

This whole thread is the worst idea ever.

Let's pay Fitz the money he is guaranteed this year, sign a limited, mediocre Alex Smith for another $8 million/year and avoid taking a young quarterback at 8 because its easier for analysts to point out flaws than praise what qbs do well so everyone thinks every quarterback in the draft will be a bust.

We have a strong running game, a defense that can be solid with a few FA addition lets just bite the bullet and take a quarterback in the draft and stop dumpster diving for freakin Alex Smith.

As long as the Bills don't trade back into the first, I good with this. Take one at #8 or one in the 2nd. Crap, if Sanchez can take the Jests to the AFC Championship game twice, you gotta know that's the recipe for success with a young QB -- or even a veteran.

[jrober38]

Never heard this before...
would you rather Stephon Gilmore or Russel Wilson?

Way to use the statistical anomaly as your example and ignore the other 11 guys who were all bad as rookies.

[LINDA_D]

Elite arm strength, accuracy, leadership, decision making and intelligence.

None of the guys in this draft can check all those boxes.

Elite arm strength is over-rated: see JaMarcus Russell and JP Losman among numerous examples of million dollar arms and fifty cent brains. I agree accuracy is important, but it's more than simply completion %. Leadership, decision-making and intelligence (as in football smarts NOT on a Wonderlic) really can't be measured, and that's what scouts and GMs get paid to figure out.

[Scott7975]

And yet he was still good enough to get them into the NFC Championship game last season, and the 49rs were 6-2 up until Smith took the concussion vs. St. Louis. You don;t win that many gams when your QB sucks. Sorry, your argument doesn't hold water.

He wasn't replaced by a "rookie", he got replaced by a 2nd year project because it was by Harbaugh's design. He was just waiting for an opportunity to showcase "his" guy. The one HE selected. He was just waiting on the right opportunity and the injury gave it to him. Kaepernick proved him right, and the rest is history.

Mark Sanchez took his team to 2 AFC championship games in a row. Do you want Sanchez too?

[Jm2009]

Mark Sanchez took his team to 2 AFC championship games in a row. Do you want Sanchez too?

Smith is better than Sanchez and Fitz.

[LEBills]

Elite arm strength, accuracy, leadership, decision making and intelligence.

None of the guys in this draft can check all those boxes.

Geno Smith:
- Elite Arm Strength
- 71.2 completion percentage, inflated by bubble screens but good at hitting all areas of the field. Accurate.
- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8Qr2SEwOxk 1 minute in. Leader.
- 42 Touchdowns. 6 interceptions. Decision Making.

Ryan Nassib
-In my opinion, he has great throw velocity. Check 2:50 in here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2lLS4r_77g. Based on the dimensions that ball traveled 55mph through the air. By comparison Cam Newton threw 56 mph at the combine. Needs to learn how to put less air under his deep throws.
- 62.4 completion percentage. Accurate.
- Voted captain by his teammates. Leader.
- 67.4 completion percentage, seven touchdowns to 1 interception vs two top 25 ranked opponents in 2012. Decision Making.

Zac Dysert
- 2:25 in, 40 yards while rolling to his left (as a right handed quarterback). Good arm strength.
- 62.9 percent completion this year and his WRs dropped ALOT of passes. Accurate.
- Three time team captain. Leader.
- 68.4 completion percentage, 5 touchdowns to 1 interception when team was trailing by less than 7 points. Decision making.

I could go on but it takes a bit to write all this up so those are my top 3 quarterbacks, and yea I like Dysert that much.

I think we are in a position to get a really good prospect at 8, not perfect but no human is. We need to start looking at what these quarterbacks can do well because these three have some really great attributes.

[LEBills]

Elite arm strength is over-rated: see JaMarcus Russell and JP Losman among numerous examples of million dollar arms and fifty cent brains. I agree accuracy is important, but it's more than simply completion %. Leadership, decision-making and intelligence (as in football smarts NOT on a Wonderlic) really can't be measured, and that's what scouts and GMs get paid to figure out.

After watching Fitz for the last three years, I have to value a good arm a lot. Doesn't have to be Jeff George, but needs to be big enough to make the throws.

[jrober38]

Elite arm strength is over-rated: see JaMarcus Russell and JP Losman among numerous examples of million dollar arms and fifty cent brains. I agree accuracy is important, but it's more than simply completion %. Leadership, decision-making and intelligence (as in football smarts NOT on a Wonderlic) really can't be measured, and that's what scouts and GMs get paid to figure out.

An elite arm is pretty important.

Name any elite QB. They're all capable of making all the throws and all have above average to very good arm strength.

[Scott7975]

Smith is better than Sanchez and Fitz.

What are you basing that on? and how much better is he? You want to give up a 2nd or more for him for maybe slightly better? If you are going to talk about QB rating then... when you only throw 20 safe passes per game to wide open recievers, you will have a good QB rating. He wasnt asked to do anything but hand off a ball and make a 10 to 15 yard pass here and there. The defense held teams to an average of 14 points. Not hard to manage a game and make some safe throws when you are in that situation. So please enlighten me on how he is so much better then Fitz and Sanchez that he is worth throwing away a possible elite LBer or WR or more. On top of that you have to look at what his contract would demand... he will cut our cap space in almost half making it very difficult to sign both Byrd and Levitre and any other FAs that we intend to keep.