Yes, my arguement makes perfect sense. I have shown that Smith wasnt asked to do much but hand the ball off. You say that isnt a reflection on Smith... I say it is indeed.
Originally Posted by Thurman#1
Are you really comparing the Bills offense to the 49ers offense? And you say I dont make sense? The Bills offense is garbage and that has more to do then just Qb. How many long passes did Alex complete?
Again, doesn't make sense. The Bills are a perfect example of what happens when you get an offense with pretty good personnel, including excellent RBs, and a crappy QB. You don't get production. The QB is everything. A QB who can only throw the short ball? Fitz. What happens? Teams strangle you by ignoring the long ball and closing in on the line. They couldn't do that with Alex Smith because he can throw it long.
You misunderstand when I say Matt Cassel 2.0. Well, maybe you dont and you want to avoid the true statistics. I compare Smith to Cassel... because both QBs have "looked" decent on good teams and both QBs have "looked" bad on bad teams. Lets look at Matts stats for the Pats where he was on a good team with good coaching... you know like Smith currently has been for 2 years. What stats you looking at?
Matt Cassel? The fact that you're comparing Alex Smith to Matt Cassel shows a lot more about you and your blindnesses than it does about Alex Smith. Lets look: 20+ 41 times. 40+ 6 times. Where are all these long balls? By comparison Fitz was 20+ 48 times 40+ 8 times. Hmm something doesnt jive with your post.
Cassel has thrown 58.9% completions, and Smith 59.3, so at first they look alike but all you have to do is look at the direction each guy is going. Smith's last two ears he's throw 61.3% and 70.2%, where Cassel has thrown59.5% and 58.1%. Not remotely comparable. YPA is the most important QB stat with the possible exception of INT percentage. Smith's last two years he threw 7.1 which is good and 8.0 which is excellent, while Cassel threw 6.4 and 6.5, which are bad. Cassel's INT percentages the last two years were 3.3 and 4.3, bad and awful, while Smith's were 1.1, which is not just extremely good but insane and league-leading and 2.3 which is extremely good. You're comparing an above average QB with a well below-average QB. Honestly, the fact you think they're comparable shows much more about you than about them.
Oh yeah, YPA, Cassel had a 7.2 YPA on his season with the Pats... notice how Smith got better with good team and coaching and Matt got worse with a worse team and coaching. Kinda the same huh? Oh did Cassel have a 7.2 vs Smith 7.1? That wouldnt be near identical would it? Nah. You said yourself that YPA is the most important stat. Lets see his completion % on the Pats..63.4. What did you say Smiths was? oh yeah 61.3. Well I think Matt beat Smith out on that one. Whats the next stat... INT% oh it was 2.1% on the Pats which you say is extremely good.
No, you say its doesnt make sense but it makes perfect sense. The comparison is about as good as a perfect example as you can get, if you pay attention to what the example is showing:
A QB in Matt Cassel who was good on a good team and went into decline on a bad team. A QB in Alex Smith who was bad on a bad team and showed improvement on a good team. If you look at Cassels stats on the Pats compared to Smiths stats on the current 49ers staff... they are pretty much the same. If you want to look at Matts bad stats from his bad team... then do the same for Smith. Ill wait while you look those up and compare again.
Yeah its very wacky for you to say Smith was the driver on offense when all he did was hand the ball off. No, it was Gore getting all the yards though.
Yeah, wacky for me to say that the QB was the driver for the offense. Crazy. Musta been Frank Gore doing all the passing.
Even after Smiths 1.5 year solid preformances... Fitz still has better career statistics. You call Smith an above average QB. Thats your OPINION. Its not now nor never was a fact.
Is Alex Smith better than Fitz? “Probably but I doubt by much” Good lord. And you’re trying to pretend that you are in some way neutral and basing your views on argument? Not hardly, not when you’re comparing Smith, an above average QB with two QBs who’re well below average and somehow seeing that it’s even close.
Again compare him to Matt while he was with the Pats... that would be the fair comparison... or compare Smith to when his team was bad, that would also be a fair comparison. What you are doing is not the fair comparison. That sight lists him as 32 in Air yards. Air yards per attempt... 4.3.... those are short passes man. His average is 4.3 yards in the air per attempt if im reading that correctly. I dont care what he ranks against others (16th) 4.3 yards is a short pass no? Im not sure what you are getting at here....on NFL.com he ranked 19th in passes over 20+yards and 20th in passes of 40+ yards. Im not getting this deep ball feeling that you are trying to portray.
The 49ers had the worst red zone efficiency in the NFL last year. What does that tell ya? Not to mention the 49ers ranked 29th in passing offense. What does that tell ya? They didnt just use their running game in the red zone, they used it through the entire game. That says alot about Smith whether you want to deny it or not.
They have an excellent power run game. If I have an excellent power run game, and an excellent QB, when I get inside the ten, I feed the run game almost all of the time. It's safer and more efficient. This is Harbaugh's personality too.
So, the fact that their game plan is to run a lot is a reflection on Smith, according to you? Again, this says more about you than it does about Smith. This is the game plan Harbaugh likes and he has the personnel to run it. That doesn't say anything about Smith..
Some of those running numbers are also from Kaep himself. What does it tell you that they score an average of 1TD more per game with Kaep while still using a rushing based offense? They still scored more then average? The offense under Smith scored 19 points per game on average. If 19 ppg is above average scoring then you must be watching football from a decade ago. I assure you that 19 points per game is not above average anymore.
What are these?
34 runs, 25 passes
29 runs, 23 passes
31 runs, 25 passes
44 runs, 22 passes
28 runs, 23 passes
39 runs, 25 passes
19 runs, 36 passes
37 runs, 29 passes
They are the run - pass numbers for the 49ers in their last eight games of the season, when Kaepernick is in control.
This is simply the way Harbaugh like to call plays. He runs more. Does that mean Kaepernick sucks? It shouldn't. It means that Harbaugh likes to run a lot.
And teams that run more tend to burn up more clock but score a bit less. Yet with Smith at QB, they still scored more than average. What you're saying about the Niners running a lot doesn't say anything bad about Alex Smith whatsoever.
The point was that when they actually had to rely on Smiths arm, they couldnt get the job done.
You do know that that's true of pretty much every team in football history, don't you? Get behind early and you're less likely to do well. Get ahead early and you're more likely to win. This is true of every team. It's the way football and probability work, for Pete's sake.
What are these:
These are Smiths passing numbers per game. Pretty paltry and you say that Im blind. Thats well below average for an NFL QB. 30th ranked to be specific.
What is this:
Thats the rank of passing offense.
Last edited by Scott7975; 02-01-2013 at 06:26 AM.
Dear Optimist, Pessimist and Realist,
While you guys were busy
arguing about the glass of water,
I drank it!