My take on Alex Smith

[bluerosekiller]

Regardless of who the Bills draft at the QB position, whether it's someone that's viewed as an elite talent or a second or third round "development project", the fact remains that they're going to have to bring in a veteran or two to be competitive in camp, to maybe start, to help groom or just to play back up. But, they're going to have to find one. Hopefully two. And, I don't know about anyone else, but I'd prefer at least one of those individuals to be a QB who's actually had some success in the league somewhat recently. And, Smith DOES fit that bill ( no pun intended ).
So does Matt Moore, but, if the Bills do wind up drafting a signal caller who's going to require some time on the bench before he's ready to become the starter, then I'd rather have Smith. I think he has the skills, experience & mindset to come in, pick up Marrone's offense & win some games. Maybe even enough to make it into the playoffs.
I know that's a LOT to ask, but if that clusterf**k of a horribly coached team could win six games this season, then a well coached team with an influx of talent on both sides of the ball this offseason should be capable of winning nine, maybe one more. Even with a tougher schedule.
Anyhow, that's my theory & I'm sticking to it.

[Scott7975]

OK, in that case I apologize for misunderstanding you, but your new argument doesn't make any more sense. A good offense with a bad QB? Yeah, right.

Yes, my arguement makes perfect sense. I have shown that Smith wasnt asked to do much but hand the ball off. You say that isnt a reflection on Smith... I say it is indeed.

Again, doesn't make sense. The Bills are a perfect example of what happens when you get an offense with pretty good personnel, including excellent RBs, and a crappy QB. You don't get production. The QB is everything. A QB who can only throw the short ball? Fitz. What happens? Teams strangle you by ignoring the long ball and closing in on the line. They couldn't do that with Alex Smith because he can throw it long.

Are you really comparing the Bills offense to the 49ers offense? And you say I dont make sense? The Bills offense is garbage and that has more to do then just Qb. How many long passes did Alex complete?

Matt Cassel? The fact that you're comparing Alex Smith to Matt Cassel shows a lot more about you and your blindnesses than it does about Alex Smith. Lets look: 20+ 41 times. 40+ 6 times. Where are all these long balls? By comparison Fitz was 20+ 48 times 40+ 8 times. Hmm something doesnt jive with your post.

Cassel has thrown 58.9% completions, and Smith 59.3, so at first they look alike but all you have to do is look at the direction each guy is going. Smith's last two ears he's throw 61.3% and 70.2%, where Cassel has thrown59.5% and 58.1%. Not remotely comparable. YPA is the most important QB stat with the possible exception of INT percentage. Smith's last two years he threw 7.1 which is good and 8.0 which is excellent, while Cassel threw 6.4 and 6.5, which are bad. Cassel's INT percentages the last two years were 3.3 and 4.3, bad and awful, while Smith's were 1.1, which is not just extremely good but insane and league-leading and 2.3 which is extremely good. You're comparing an above average QB with a well below-average QB. Honestly, the fact you think they're comparable shows much more about you than about them.

You misunderstand when I say Matt Cassel 2.0. Well, maybe you dont and you want to avoid the true statistics. I compare Smith to Cassel... because both QBs have "looked" decent on good teams and both QBs have "looked" bad on bad teams. Lets look at Matts stats for the Pats where he was on a good team with good coaching... you know like Smith currently has been for 2 years. What stats you looking at?

Oh yeah, YPA, Cassel had a 7.2 YPA on his season with the Pats... notice how Smith got better with good team and coaching and Matt got worse with a worse team and coaching. Kinda the same huh? Oh did Cassel have a 7.2 vs Smith 7.1? That wouldnt be near identical would it? Nah. You said yourself that YPA is the most important stat. Lets see his completion % on the Pats..63.4. What did you say Smiths was? oh yeah 61.3. Well I think Matt beat Smith out on that one. Whats the next stat... INT% oh it was 2.1% on the Pats which you say is extremely good.

No, you say its doesnt make sense but it makes perfect sense. The comparison is about as good as a perfect example as you can get, if you pay attention to what the example is showing:

A QB in Matt Cassel who was good on a good team and went into decline on a bad team. A QB in Alex Smith who was bad on a bad team and showed improvement on a good team. If you look at Cassels stats on the Pats compared to Smiths stats on the current 49ers staff... they are pretty much the same. If you want to look at Matts bad stats from his bad team... then do the same for Smith. Ill wait while you look those up and compare again.

Yeah, wacky for me to say that the QB was the driver for the offense. Crazy. Musta been Frank Gore doing all the passing.

Yeah its very wacky for you to say Smith was the driver on offense when all he did was hand the ball off. No, it was Gore getting all the yards though.

Is Alex Smith better than Fitz? “Probably but I doubt by much” Good lord. And you’re trying to pretend that you are in some way neutral and basing your views on argument? Not hardly, not when you’re comparing Smith, an above average QB with two QBs who’re well below average and somehow seeing that it’s even close.

Even after Smiths 1.5 year solid preformances... Fitz still has better career statistics. You call Smith an above average QB. Thats your OPINION. Its not now nor never was a fact.

As for the whole deal about how short he throws, he’s 16th in the league in air yards per attempt (AirYPA), while Cassel is 30th and Fitz 34th out of 40.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php

Again, not comparable.

Again compare him to Matt while he was with the Pats... that would be the fair comparison... or compare Smith to when his team was bad, that would also be a fair comparison. What you are doing is not the fair comparison. That sight lists him as 32 in Air yards. Air yards per attempt... 4.3.... those are short passes man. His average is 4.3 yards in the air per attempt if im reading that correctly. I dont care what he ranks against others (16th) 4.3 yards is a short pass no? Im not sure what you are getting at here....on NFL.com he ranked 19th in passes over 20+yards and 20th in passes of 40+ yards. Im not getting this deep ball feeling that you are trying to portray.

They have an excellent power run game. If I have an excellent power run game, and an excellent QB, when I get inside the ten, I feed the run game almost all of the time. It's safer and more efficient. This is Harbaugh's personality too.

So, the fact that their game plan is to run a lot is a reflection on Smith, according to you? Again, this says more about you than it does about Smith. This is the game plan Harbaugh likes and he has the personnel to run it. That doesn't say anything about Smith..

The 49ers had the worst red zone efficiency in the NFL last year. What does that tell ya? Not to mention the 49ers ranked 29th in passing offense. What does that tell ya? They didnt just use their running game in the red zone, they used it through the entire game. That says alot about Smith whether you want to deny it or not.

What are these?

34 runs, 25 passes
29 runs, 23 passes
31 runs, 25 passes
44 runs, 22 passes
28 runs, 23 passes
39 runs, 25 passes
19 runs, 36 passes
37 runs, 29 passes

They are the run - pass numbers for the 49ers in their last eight games of the season, when Kaepernick is in control.

This is simply the way Harbaugh like to call plays. He runs more. Does that mean Kaepernick sucks? It shouldn't. It means that Harbaugh likes to run a lot.

And teams that run more tend to burn up more clock but score a bit less. Yet with Smith at QB, they still scored more than average. What you're saying about the Niners running a lot doesn't say anything bad about Alex Smith whatsoever.

Some of those running numbers are also from Kaep himself. What does it tell you that they score an average of 1TD more per game with Kaep while still using a rushing based offense? They still scored more then average? The offense under Smith scored 19 points per game on average. If 19 ppg is above average scoring then you must be watching football from a decade ago. I assure you that 19 points per game is not above average anymore.

You do know that that's true of pretty much every team in football history, don't you? Get behind early and you're less likely to do well. Get ahead early and you're more likely to win. This is true of every team. It's the way football and probability work, for Pete's sake.

The point was that when they actually had to rely on Smiths arm, they couldnt get the job done.

What are these:

124
132
176
111
174
188
96
143
187
171
178

264
205
245
267
228
205
278

These are Smiths passing numbers per game. Pretty paltry and you say that Im blind. Thats well below average for an NFL QB. 30th ranked to be specific.

What is this:

29th

Thats the rank of passing offense.

[Thurman#1]

The point was that when they actually had to rely on Smiths arm, they couldnt get the job done.

What are these:

124
132
176
111
174
188
96
143
187
171
178

264
205
245
267
228
205
278

These are Smiths passing numbers per game. Pretty paltry and you say that Im blind. Thats well below average for an NFL QB. 30th ranked to be specific.

What is this:

29th

Thats the rank of passing offense.

Only if ranked by yards. And only a person with some kind of an agenda, an agenda that was driving him like a jockey who was heavy with the spurs, would think it's fair to rank a passing offense by yardage or a QB by yardage when that offense and that QB didn't have anywhere near as many attempts as most offenses. It's like ranking a hitter by hits rather than batting average and accusing a guy with a .320 average of being bad because he only had about two-thirds of the hits of this other guy who had twice as many at-bats. It doesn't make logical sense.

You rank an offense by how efficient it is. For this reason, for teams with few attempts you get a much better sense of how good they actually are by ranking by YPA.

SF was 2nd this year.
Alex Smith was 5th.

You could use a few other things to effectively rank people, obviously, but yardage doesn't make sense at all for a passing offense ranking.


Frankly, it's clear you're a bit wacky on this. I mean, you simply keep on with the stuff that doesn't make sense, comparing Smith to Fitz and Cassel, defending even your wackier statements. You keep saying that Harbaugh's use of the run over the pass is a result of his feelings towards Smith even though he has continued the exact same formula with Kaep at QB. It simply doesn't make sense, but you're not seeing it.

You've got a few points, but you're so far beyond that. Luckily, my mandate for myself isn't to convince the people with wackier opinions that they're wrong. It's just to point out to neutral readers who might be looking in where stuff doesn't make sense. I'm quite happy with already having done that here.

Smith would be a very good pickup here. If he doesn't come here, I won't be all that upset. Even if they grab him, I want them to draft another guy in the first and second so Smith has someone to compete with over the years. And if the new guy wins, great, bench Smith.

But several if not many of your anti-Smith arguments don't make much sense. Harbaugh

At one point you say, "You said yourself that YPA is the most important stat. Lets see his completion % on the Pats..63.4. What did you say Smiths was? oh yeah 61.3. Well I think Matt beat Smith out on that one." Um, no, Alex Smith's completion percentage this year was 70%. So I didn't say what you said I did, and no, Matt didn't beat Smith out on that one. And Cassel did that 5 years ago, on a team that was built around their offense, while Smith did it last year on a team that has spent most of it's resources on it's defense. That's a fairly major difference.

And by the way, you say "You call Smith an above average QB. Thats your OPINION. Its not now nor never was a fact."

Well, yeah, of course. Goodness is an opinion-based quality. It's not something you can say is fact-based. What I have is an opinion. However, it's an opinion shared by most NFL observers, based on steady improvement and well above-average statistical production. It's an educated, thoughtful, well backed-up opinion, shared as I said by most NFL observers. What you objected to was my saying that Smith was better than Fitz. The stats say so, but really everyone pretty much understands this. Ask around you and try to find people who, if they had Alex Smith and nobody else who could start in the NFL, would trade him for Fitz, even if the other team threw in, say a 4th round pick if it meant that Fitz would be the starter.

Again, I don't worry about changing your opinion on this. But I'm confident that most folks who're neutral are at the very least going to see that I have presented a very good argument for Alex Smith.

[Thurman#1]

Again compare him to Matt while he was with the Pats... that would be the fair comparison... or compare Smith to when his team was bad, that would also be a fair comparison. What you are doing is not the fair comparison. That sight lists him as 32 in Air yards. Air yards per attempt... 4.3.... those are short passes man. His average is 4.3 yards in the air per attempt if im reading that correctly. I dont care what he ranks against others (16th) 4.3 yards is a short pass no? Im not sure what you are getting at here....on NFL.com he ranked 19th in passes over 20+yards and 20th in passes of 40+ yards. Im not getting this deep ball feeling that you are trying to portray.

You are reading it correctly. But I'd argue you're missing the point.

"Air yards per attempt... 4.3.... those are short passes man." Did you look at the list? You'll notice that the longest in the league was 4.9 in 2011, Aaron Rodgers, and this year Kaepernick's #1 with 5.5 and Russell Wilson is #2 with 5.0 and Eli is #3 with 3.8?

This list removes all YAC from the totals. So it's death for a guy like Fitz who makes a bunch of his yards by throwing to Freddie or CJ a yard behind the line of scrimmage and watching them run for 20 yards. In air yards, that counts as minus one yards. Everybody's totals are much lower in AirYPC.

Again, Smith was #16. Cassel was #30 and Fitz was #34 out of 40. Smith slightly above average. The onest you're trying to compare him to far far below average.

http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php

[Thurman#1]

What does it tell you that they score an average of 1TD more per game with Kaep while still using a rushing based offense?

Could you back that up, please? I've seen it around a million times, and it doesn't add up with what the stats actually seem to be.

The Niners scored 189 in their first eight games (23.65 PPG).

And 208 in their last eight games (26.0 PPG). How is this seven points more?

Wanna argue that Smith took three drives (out of 10) in game #9? OK, and he scored seven points. So, that's 196 points in 8.3 games, or 23.614 PPG. Which would put Kaep at 201 points in 7.7 games, which is 26.103. How is this 7 points more?

Wanna throw in the playoff games? 274 points divided by 9.7 games is 28.247. How is that seven points more?

But if you're going to be fair, you have to also throw in that the Niners defense scored 3 TDs, two pick sixes and one fumble returned for a TD. Only one of those came while Smith was QBing. So you have to subtract seven points from Smith and 14 from Kaep to show offensive scoring.


189 points scored by the offense, divided by 7.7 games equals 22.77 for the Smith-led offense

260 points divided by 9.7 games equals 26.804

Again, how does this add up to seven points?

Not to mention that the schedule was easier in the second half of the year, though it certainly got more difficult in the playoffs.


The Seahawks and Cards, division opponents, played against the Smith-led team and again against the Kaep-led team.

Smith played against the Pack, the Lions, the Vikes, the Jets, the Bills, and the Giants,

Kaep played the Rams, Bears, Saints, Rams again, Fins, and Pats. Easier schedule. Easier Ds for Kaep.

And no seven points difference unless I'm missing something huge. Am I?

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

I can handle people giving Alex Smith credit for the 9rs record (it's B.S. but whatever)
I can handle the sports nerds that think stats overide their own eyes.
I can even handle the blatantly brainwashed that feel where a Player is drafted dictates a players worth 5-7 years later.
What I can't handle is some fear mongerer whos' only real arguement is "if you don't take player X you will be forced to keep the player we want replaced.
Absolute f'n nonsense. just a complete waste of 1's and 0's on my screen.
There is 0% reason to keep Fitz if we don't sign Alex Smith.
People have posted dozens of alternatives in the dozens of Smith related threads but people like you want me to be afraid that I will have to endure annother year of Fitz if I don't get in line to welcome the original "Capt'n Checkdown" to B-lo.

Please stop wasting our time if that is what is keeping you awake at night.

I sleep well at night. why should I be anymore of a waste of time than you or any other long winded poster? all the same, nothing but opinions, nothing really always credible, just thoughts/feelings/opinions.

I don't have ocd nor do I live nfl football. I do however share my opinions or feelings regarding the buffalo bills in general. if you would of scrolled further beyond the post you quoted you would of caught on I was being sarcastic with the post you quoted but then went into more detail how I felt about the direction the team is going and most certainly my feelings/opinion on the player in question, fitz.

edit: some arguments can be and are credible and reading through these posts and posts in other threads I have to say shaw66 and thurman#1 appear to have the most credible and logical opinions and in some cases, facts in regards to the alex smith debate. I can only share my "opinion" in the debate and in some cases, as in yours, seems to be a waste of your time.

After the bye, they were a decent defense. Not good. But decent.

I see the defense gelling and coming together full force by 2014. unfortunately until a qb is in place the offense will be set back. can't depend on inconsistency at that position and that is all he is proven to be in his tenure, inconsistent!

[Billsnation2010]

No one here is "in love" with alex smith or believe him to be the franchise qb that we need. Alex smith is viewed as a decent stop gap for a possible year (maybe two) while we groom a franchise qb or wait till a better draft class. Fitz is not the answer for this situation. I dont believe fitz would handle a "qb crisis" with as much class as smith handled it & fitz's negativity would b an issue in the locker room and cause problems for the team...

Sorry this isn't 1989 anymore, you don't baby your QB you let him play and get hands on experience.

[rhinocoach]

I sleep well at night. why should I be anymore of a waste of time than you or any other long winded poster? all the same, nothing but opinions, nothing really always credible, just thoughts/feelings/opinions.

I don't have ocd nor do I live nfl football. I do however share my opinions or feelings regarding the buffalo bills in general. if you would of scrolled further beyond the post you quoted you would of caught on I was being sarcastic with the post you quoted but then went into more detail how I felt about the direction the team is going and most certainly my feelings/opinion on the player in question, fitz.

edit: some arguments can be and are credible and reading through these posts and posts in other threads I have to say shaw66 and thurman#1 appear to have the most credible and logical opinions and in some cases, facts in regards to the alex smith debate. I can only share my "opinion" in the debate and in some cases, as in yours, seems to be a waste of your time.



I see the defense gelling and coming together full force by 2014. unfortunately until a qb is in place the offense will be set back. can't depend on inconsistency at that position and that is all he is proven to be in his tenure, inconsistent!

that was alot of typing for a personal affermation....
just sayin'

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

that was alot of typing for a personal affermation....
just sayin'

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