If we draft a QB in the first round and start him; Will we have a winning season?

[Scott7975]

It all depends on what QB we draft, and how much our defense improves...assuming there is any improvement.

One factor to consider is no matter who our starting QB is in 2013, it's no secret that Spiller is going to become the focal point of the offense. Opposing teams know this and will gameplan to stop the run every week until we can prove we can throw the ball downfield.

With that said....we already know our current QB can't do that, which is why I'm still holding out hope he'll be released. This is why it's imperative to draft a strong armed QB or sign a guy that has an NFL caliber arm.

Highly doubt he will be released. Think about it logically. Need 3 QBs on the roster. They are not going to go into the season with a couple rookies and nothing more. However, that doesnt mean he will start. It just means that Fitz gets 1 more year with a clipboard, unless the rookie is that terrible.

[racketmaster]

If we draft a QB in the first round and start him; Will we have a winning season?

Its hard for me to expect a winning season if this happens.

The question is;

What do you expect if we draft and start a rookie QB?

3 rookie qb's guided their teams to the playoffs in 2012. You can't expect that from a rookie qb, but winning with them is not impossible. The idea is to have the rookie qb make progress throughout the season. Then you have hope the following year.

[jrober38]

History clearly shows rookie QBs not picked with the 1st or 2nd overall pick will produce a QB rating in the 70-79 range.

With that type of QB play, it's almost impossible to have a winning season.

[FrostbitMic]

If we draft a QB in the first round and start him; Will we have a winning season?

Its hard for me to expect a winning season if this happens.

The question is;

What do you expect if we draft and start a rookie QB?

What I'd expect is equal QB play as if Fitz were starting. Our rookie QB would also have a higher ceiling than Fitz and would have his "learning" year under his belt.

Or would you prefer us to wait yet another year to get a franchise QB ? Another year that come draft time you'll say there aren't any surefire franchise QBs in that class either. Thats what OBD has been doing for years, and guess what ..... It hasn't worked.

[DCBillsfan]

no

[racketmaster]

You could ask the question, Are we a winning team with Fitz or Alex Smith? Probably not with Fitz and Smith may get us just above .500. You draft a qb, so they can pay dividends in years 2,3,4 and beyond. What you have with a rookie is HOPE.

[Donmega]

Depends on the QB but we would be winning in the game of making progress in reshaping this team and building for a competitive future.

[Scott7975]

You could ask the question, Are we a winning team with Fitz or Alex Smith? Probably not with Fitz and Smith may get us just above .500. You draft a qb, so they can pay dividends in years 2,3,4 and beyond. What you have with a rookie is HOPE.

So you are saying we need Obi Wan Kenobi!

[rhinocoach]

it's a 4 win season !!!!!

2 less than fitz and a better drft pick in '14 with a much better chance for sucess. glad you see the light.

[rhinocoach]

I think we need to assume that Fitzpatrick will not be a Bill next year.

that is the concensus.

[rhinocoach]

What about this guy has you so excited?

he was rated ahead of RGIII before he decided to return to college.

[Thurmanator3434]

Barkley = 8-8
Wilson = 6-10
Nassib = 7-9

Just my random guess...

[LEBills]

Between 2011 and 2008 7 teams have drafted and let a rookie quarterback start every game

2008: Matt Ryan took his team to 11-5 up from 4-12 the year before (+7)
2008: Joe Flacco took his team to 11-5 up from 5-11 the year before (+6)
2009: Matt Stafford took his team to 2-14 up from 0-16 the year before (+2)
2009: Mark Sanchez took his team to 9-7 the same as the year before (+0)
2010: Sam Bradford took his team to 7-9 up from 1-15 the year before (+6)
2011: Cam Newton took his team to 6-10 up from 2-14 the year before (+4)
2011: Andy Dalton took his team to 9-7 up from 4-12 the year before (+5)

55-57 in 128 games for a .49 winning percentage
4 out of 7 made the playoffs.
An average increase of 4.3 wins from the prior season.
The average draft position of these players was 5.6 (after throwing out the highest and lowest drafted player during that span)


Teams that drafted first round quarterbacks but waited to start them:
2011: Blaine Gabbert went 4-10 after being drafted 10th by the Jaguars
2011: Christian Ponder went 2-8 after being drafted 12th by the Vikings
2010: Tim Tebow went 1-2 after being drafted 25th by the Broncos
2009: Josh Freeman went 3-6 after being drafted 17th by the Buccaneers

They accumulated a 10-26 record or a .38 winning percentage
Average draft position of these players was 16th
None made the playoffs

So, if history is a predictor, the chances of us making the playoffs with a rookie quarterback is not bad

PROVIDING

We use our first pick on them (assuming we feel he is worth the pick) and go into the season with him as the starter (and preparing him to be such throughout the offseason)

DRAFT A QB at 8!!

[Scott7975]

Between 2011 and 2008 7 teams have drafted and let a rookie quarterback start every game

2008: Matt Ryan took his team to 11-5 up from 4-12 the year before (+7)
2008: Joe Flacco took his team to 11-5 up from 5-11 the year before (+6)
2009: Matt Stafford took his team to 2-14 up from 0-16 the year before (+2)
2009: Mark Sanchez took his team to 9-7 the same as the year before (+0)
2010: Sam Bradford took his team to 7-9 up from 1-15 the year before (+6)
2011: Cam Newton took his team to 6-10 up from 2-14 the year before (+4)
2011: Andy Dalton took his team to 9-7 up from 4-12 the year before (+5)

55-57 in 128 games for a .49 winning percentage
4 out of 7 made the playoffs.
An average increase of 4.3 wins from the prior season.
The average draft position of these players was 5.6 (after throwing out the highest and lowest drafted player during that span)


Teams that drafted first round quarterbacks but waited to start them:
2011: Blaine Gabbert went 4-10 after being drafted 10th by the Jaguars
2011: Christian Ponder went 2-8 after being drafted 12th by the Vikings
2010: Tim Tebow went 1-2 after being drafted 25th by the Broncos
2009: Josh Freeman went 3-6 after being drafted 17th by the Buccaneers

They accumulated a 10-26 record or a .38 winning percentage
Average draft position of these players was 16th
None made the playoffs

So, if history is a predictor, the chances of us making the playoffs with a rookie quarterback is not bad

PROVIDING

We use our first pick on them (assuming we feel he is worth the pick) and go into the season with him as the starter (and preparing him to be such throughout the offseason)

DRAFT A QB at 8!!

IMO that was a waste of time looking that information up. None of that means anything in the grand scheme of things. It was nice work but it really doesnt mean anything. It is no indicator that getting a rookie QB and starting him will get us to the playoffs or not. Even if we got a rookie QB, started him and made the playoffs, its not necessarily because of him.

[Thurman#1]

If we draft a QB in the first round and start him; Will we have a winning season?

Its hard for me to expect a winning season if this happens.

The question is;

What do you expect if we draft and start a rookie QB?

Most likely we wouldn't have a great season with a rookie QB. Especially with the defense yet again switching to a new and very complex system. I expect the D to drop back a bit and have a very slow start, just as they did this year before they picked up the system. And while the occasional QB does well the first year, particularly if you put him in a system that's like his college system, most take a while before the light bulb comes on.

But you draft a QB for his career, not for the first season.

[Thurman#1]

You could ask the question, Are we a winning team with Fitz or Alex Smith? Probably not with Fitz and Smith may get us just above .500. You draft a qb, so they can pay dividends in years 2,3,4 and beyond. What you have with a rookie is HOPE.

Alex Smith would be by far the best option if you're only looking at next year. Me personally, I'd like to see them get Smith if they don't have to give away the store to make the trade, and then draft a QB in the first or second.

Highly doubt he will be released. Think about it logically. Need 3 QBs on the roster. They are not going to go into the season with a couple rookies and nothing more. However, that doesnt mean he will start. It just means that Fitz gets 1 more year with a clipboard, unless the rookie is that terrible.

You could easily be right. Trading for Alex Smith would require almost the exact same cash outlay as keeping Fitz, though. Both would cost about $7 mill cash. And even if they don't get Smith, $7 mill is a lot to pay for a backup/placeholder. That's why they're re-negotiating his contract. If they come to an agreement, it definitely makes it fairly likely Fitz would at least still be on the team next year.

[Mike1989]

IMO that was a waste of time looking that information up. None of that means anything in the grand scheme of things. It was nice work but it really doesnt mean anything. It is no indicator that getting a rookie QB and starting him will get us to the playoffs or not. Even if we got a rookie QB, started him and made the playoffs, its not necessarily because of him.

True, but a good QB can make a difference between finishing 6-10 and 10-6. If we had a better QB last season, as bad as our defence was, we had four games that were close and a better QB might have turned them from defeats into wins. Now like you say, a rookie QB or even a FA like Alex Smith, bring no guarantee that they would turn us from a losing team to a winning team, but having a better QB can make a difference in tight games.

In regards to next seasons record. If we get a rookie and start him I'd be happy if we make 8-8, though if we have a good draft and free agency, we could have a similar turnaround like the Bengals and Colts did. But I think a Dolphins type season is more likely.

[LEBills]

IMO that was a waste of time looking that information up. None of that means anything in the grand scheme of things. It was nice work but it really doesnt mean anything. It is no indicator that getting a rookie QB and starting him will get us to the playoffs or not. Even if we got a rookie QB, started him and made the playoffs, its not necessarily because of him.

Point is that many teams who draft a QB early and commit to him from the start have seen success.

So starting a rookie QB would not condemn us to a 14th playoff-less season. Like many who have posted believe.

So spending 5 minutes writing this up wasn't a waste of time as far as my point goes.

Draft a QB at 8 (or move up even higher for one!) get him a few weapons, tell him he is going to be the guy THIS YEAR and prepare him as such. And the history is there. Teams can succeed. Lets be the next team to do it.

[TigerJ]

No, I don't really expect a winning season with a rookie QB. After all, there is no Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III in this draft. That is not a reason to avoid going that route. If you can possibly find a guy that can be a winner down the road (possibly in 2014) you have to try. Staying with Fitzpatrick is a road that leads to nowhere (ie. perpetual mediocrity).

[Mike1989]

No, I don't really expect a winning season with a rookie QB. After all, there is no Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III in this draft. That is not a reason to avoid going that route. If you can possibly find a guy that can be a winner down the road (possibly in 2014) you have to try. Staying with Fitzpatrick is a road that leads to nowhere (ie. perpetual mediocrity).

Andy Dalton went in the second, and I think he was never hyped as the next big thing. To an extent the talent in this year's draft is comparable to him I some ways. If we can net the next Dalton we'll be set.