History clearly shows rookie QBs not picked with the 1st or 2nd overall pick will produce a QB rating in the 70-79 range.
With that type of QB play, it's almost impossible to have a winning season.
Or would you prefer us to wait yet another year to get a franchise QB ? Another year that come draft time you'll say there aren't any surefire franchise QBs in that class either. Thats what OBD has been doing for years, and guess what ..... It hasn't worked.
" I spent half of my money on gambling, liquor, and wild women. The other half I wasted."
You could ask the question, Are we a winning team with Fitz or Alex Smith? Probably not with Fitz and Smith may get us just above .500. You draft a qb, so they can pay dividends in years 2,3,4 and beyond. What you have with a rookie is HOPE.
Depends on the QB but we would be winning in the game of making progress in reshaping this team and building for a competitive future.
May The Schwartz Be With You.
Adopt-a-Bill 2013-14 Nickell Robey "The Diminutive DB"
Barkley = 8-8
Wilson = 6-10
Nassib = 7-9
Just my random guess...
Between 2011 and 2008 7 teams have drafted and let a rookie quarterback start every game
2008: Matt Ryan took his team to 11-5 up from 4-12 the year before (+7)
2008: Joe Flacco took his team to 11-5 up from 5-11 the year before (+6)
2009: Matt Stafford took his team to 2-14 up from 0-16 the year before (+2)
2009: Mark Sanchez took his team to 9-7 the same as the year before (+0)
2010: Sam Bradford took his team to 7-9 up from 1-15 the year before (+6)
2011: Cam Newton took his team to 6-10 up from 2-14 the year before (+4)
2011: Andy Dalton took his team to 9-7 up from 4-12 the year before (+5)
55-57 in 128 games for a .49 winning percentage
4 out of 7 made the playoffs.
An average increase of 4.3 wins from the prior season.
The average draft position of these players was 5.6 (after throwing out the highest and lowest drafted player during that span)
Teams that drafted first round quarterbacks but waited to start them:
2011: Blaine Gabbert went 4-10 after being drafted 10th by the Jaguars
2011: Christian Ponder went 2-8 after being drafted 12th by the Vikings
2010: Tim Tebow went 1-2 after being drafted 25th by the Broncos
2009: Josh Freeman went 3-6 after being drafted 17th by the Buccaneers
They accumulated a 10-26 record or a .38 winning percentage
Average draft position of these players was 16th
None made the playoffs
So, if history is a predictor, the chances of us making the playoffs with a rookie quarterback is not bad
We use our first pick on them (assuming we feel he is worth the pick) and go into the season with him as the starter (and preparing him to be such throughout the offseason)
DRAFT A QB at 8!!
Most likely we wouldn't have a great season with a rookie QB. Especially with the defense yet again switching to a new and very complex system. I expect the D to drop back a bit and have a very slow start, just as they did this year before they picked up the system. And while the occasional QB does well the first year, particularly if you put him in a system that's like his college system, most take a while before the light bulb comes on.
But you draft a QB for his career, not for the first season.
Alex Smith would be by far the best option if you're only looking at next year. Me personally, I'd like to see them get Smith if they don't have to give away the store to make the trade, and then draft a QB in the first or second.
You could easily be right. Trading for Alex Smith would require almost the exact same cash outlay as keeping Fitz, though. Both would cost about $7 mill cash. And even if they don't get Smith, $7 mill is a lot to pay for a backup/placeholder. That's why they're re-negotiating his contract. If they come to an agreement, it definitely makes it fairly likely Fitz would at least still be on the team next year.
Last edited by Thurman#1; 02-12-2013 at 04:43 AM.
In regards to next seasons record. If we get a rookie and start him I'd be happy if we make 8-8, though if we have a good draft and free agency, we could have a similar turnaround like the Bengals and Colts did. But I think a Dolphins type season is more likely.
So starting a rookie QB would not condemn us to a 14th playoff-less season. Like many who have posted believe.
So spending 5 minutes writing this up wasn't a waste of time as far as my point goes.
Draft a QB at 8 (or move up even higher for one!) get him a few weapons, tell him he is going to be the guy THIS YEAR and prepare him as such. And the history is there. Teams can succeed. Lets be the next team to do it.
No, I don't really expect a winning season with a rookie QB. After all, there is no Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III in this draft. That is not a reason to avoid going that route. If you can possibly find a guy that can be a winner down the road (possibly in 2014) you have to try. Staying with Fitzpatrick is a road that leads to nowhere (ie. perpetual mediocrity).
My adopt-a-Bill is Cordy Glenn.